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Vol 67 No 19

Published 25th September 2026


Nigeria

The Tinubu dividend remains elusive

Ending subsidies and floating the naira boosted public finances and market sentiment but the government’s repairs aren’t passing the household test

Recent polling shows rising anger among Nigerians about the economy and the cost of living, with many blaming President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reform agenda for worsening their living standards. Yet divisions within the opposition mean his All Progressives Congress (APC) still looks likely to win next January’s general elections. Backed by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, Tinubu’s economic team argues that fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange market liberalisation have boosted state finances, foreign exchange reserves, investment and GDP growth. According to the Ministry of Finance’s Nigeria Reform Scorecard of 19 August, reforms driven by Tinubu, then Finance Minister Wale Edun and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Yemi Cardoso generated 15.8 trillion naira (US$11.9 billion) in national subsidy savings and over N3trn in incremental federal government revenue between June 2023 and December 2025.

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