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After President Yar’Adua’s two-month health crisis in Saudi Arabia, Vice-President Jonathan’s supporters urge him to seize the day

On 16 January, the Vice-President, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, began to sound like a Nigerian President. His many supporters across the country say it's ...

NIGERIA

The lucky friends

KENYA

The international Islamist

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

The tentative economic recovery in Africa that we report on pages 8-9 should not obscure the worsening crisis in education. Last year’s financial crisis pushed up food prices and unemployment but also prompted governments and institutions to cut education funding. Now the United Nations says its campaign to get every child into primary education by 2015 is faltering. Two reports published this week – from the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation and the British aid agency Oxfam – say this education crisis requires the same type of effort that was launched to fight the HIV/AIDS epidemic. UNESCO estimates there is a US$16 billion shortfall in financing primary education in developing countries and that some 72 million children do not receive any education at all, although that is down one-third on a decade ago. To address this, Oxfam proposes a Global Fund for Education to be launched at the G-8 and G-20 summits in June. More than half of young adults in eleven African states have less than four years of education; in countries such as Burkina Faso and Somalia, more than half of all school leavers have less than two years of education. In northern Nigeria, more than 97% of poor Hausa-speaking girls have less than two years of schooling. Some governments are protesting at UNESCO’s reporting of ethnic differences in educational access, yet others are calculating the political cost of continuing to ignore the educational needs of their poorest voters.

CONGO-KINSHASA

The UN looks for the exit

The United Nations Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, has until the end of April to report to the UN Security Council on the future of the peacekeeping mission, the Mission des Nations Unies en République Démocratique du Congo, whose current mandate runs out in May. The UNSC's permanent members, which foot Monuc's US$1.35 billion annual bill, want to declare the mission a success before the Congolese elections, scheduled for 2011, and to replace the peacekeeping force with a 'stabilisation' mission led by the UN Development Programme.

CONGO-KINSHASA

Sanctions and the unsanctioned

Africa Confidential has obtained a copy of the 2007 and 2008 confidential lists which the United Nations Panel of Experts submitted to the UN Security Council for designation under the sanctions regime. Amongst those named in 2008 is Tribert Rujugiro, an advisor to Rwandan President Paul Kagame. General Laurent Nkunda's party stalwarts and fundraisers René Abandi (based in Italy) and Castro Mbera (based in Britain) are also named, as well as Colonel Innocent Gahizi, a military commander in the Conseil National pour la Défense du Peuple (CNDP) and go-between for Rujugiro and Nkunda.

RWANDA | CONGO-KINSHASA

Problems on the home front

The new year started well for President Paul Kagame's international standing. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner is encouraging a rapprochement. An independent inquiry (see Pointer) has scotched the accusation by French anti-terrorism Judge Jean-Louis Bruguière that Kagame's Front Populaire Rwandais (FPR) triggered the genocide by shooting down the aircraft carrying President Juvénal Habyarimana on 6 April 1994. Kagame has kept Congolese President Joseph Kabila on side. Britain and the United States think the impressive economic recovery makes Rwanda one of Africa's bright hopes while in November, after some wobbles and bickering, the Commonwealth embraced Rwanda.

RWANDA | CONGO-KINSHASA

Two generals fail to make peace

The divisions in the Conseil National pour la Défense du Peuple infuriate Rwandan President Paul Kagame, as he struggles to balance the interests of rival party factions with business and political ties to senior members of the Rwandan Patriotic Front. In July, reports emerged that Chief of Defence Staff James Kabarebe had threatened to resign lest he be blamed for the mess in the CNDP. Several CNDP officers loyal to its boss, Laurent Nkunda, were then threatening to reveal how funds were embezzled during Operation Umoja Wetu, managed by Kabarebe and Congo-Kinshasa's police chief, John Numbi.

RWANDA | CONGO-KINSHASA

Who gets the money?

The governing Rwandan Patriotic Front has been quarrelling about money as well as politics. In recent years the RPF has been privatising its assets, notably Tri-Star Holdings, a company set up by Tribert Rujugiro Ayabatwa to run businesses in eastern Congo-Kinshasa. The privatisation includes the sale of mining companies, and insiders say it has concentrated Tri-Star assets in the hands of Kagame's family and close allies.

ECONOMY | AFRICA

A slow return to growth

As the industrialised world struggles, a return to fast-growing commodity demand from Asia and a tentative Western recovery will boost African exports in 2010, although trade and budget deficits will persist in many countries. Not nearly enough progress will be achieved on the continent's biggest economic blights - unemployment and the high food prices that benefit only a few exporting countries. The worst effects of the global slowdown were averted in 2009 thanks to swift intervention by governments, central banks and international financial institutions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) trebled its concessional loans to US$3 billion, shared between countries with short-term difficulties, such as Congo-Brazzaville ($200 million), Ethiopia ($240 mn.) and Tanzania ($340 mn.), and longer-term finance for countries like Côte d'Ivoire ($560 mn.) and Ghana ($600 mn.).

ECONOMY | AFRICA

BRIC building

'African assets were undervalued and China's presence has helped correct that, whether in bonds or foreign direct investment', said Victor Lopes, Africa Economist at Standard Chartered Bank. Multinationals from the BRICs - emerging nations Brazil, Russia, India and, above all, China - have led the increase in foreign direct investment from US$10 billion a year in the decade up to 2003 to $121 bn. by 2008, particularly in Africa.

GUINEA

Democratic moves after the exit of Dadis

After hours of bitter negotiation in Burkina Faso, soldiers from the junta and their civilian counterparts have agreed on a plan that will bar all members of the ruling Conseil National pour la Démocratie et le Développement and its transitional successor from running in elections, which are due in six months. The future Conseil National de Transition (CNT) is to organise polls under the Prime Minister chosen on 19 January, Jean-Marie Doré, and his two Deputy Prime Ministers, the trades unionist Rabiatou Sérah Diallo and General Mamadouba Toto Camara of the CNDD. For now, the deal, which was signed and publicly endorsed by Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, strengthens the position of the interim leader, Brigadier Gen. Sékouba Konaté.

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

The tentative economic recovery in Africa that we report on pages 8-9 should not obscure the worsening crisis in education. Last year’s financial crisis pushed up food prices and unemployment but also prompted governments and institutions to cut education funding. Now the United Nations says its campaign to get every child into primary education by 2015 is faltering. Two reports published this week – from the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation and the British aid agency Oxfa...

GUINEA

Who's who in the junta and beyond

General Sékouba Konaté had tried to escape the corridors of power during the 2008 coup but destiny caught up with him a year later, following the December 2009 shooting of Captain Moussa Dadis Camara. Officially, Sékouba Konaté is Third Vice-President of the Conseil National pour la Démocratie et le Développement (CNDD); in reality, he is the junta's number two, so he naturally takes over from Dadis. It was common knowledge that Konaté had previously refused the leadership, offered by the young soldiers who led the December 2008 coup.



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Reuters, 16 January 2012
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[Goodluck Jonathan is] "eerily calm considering we could be weeks away from a major confrontation," said Africa Confidential editor Patrick Smith. "The absolute failure ... to wheel on southerners and northerners at the same time to say this is a national crisis and we have to pull together, is striking."

 

BBC Newshour, 14 January 2012
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Africa Confidential's editor Patrick Smith speaks to Julian Marshall in the special focus on Nigeria.

 

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Colonel Muammar Gaddafi claimed that if he was ousted from power Islamist radicals would seize control of Libya. Patrick Smith speaks to Newsnight's Robin Denselow about whether he is likely to be proven right or wrong.

 

BBC, 16 August 2011
Solomon Mujuru: Obituary of a Zimbabwean 'king-maker'
"He had all the mystique of a liberation war hero that has served him to present-day politics," Patrick Smith, editor of the London-based Africa Confidential magazine, told the BBC's Focus on Africa programme. 

 

TIME Magazine, 1 June 2011
Death, Prison or Exile: Gaddafi Is Out of Options
"My understanding is that they would be delighted if he did a duck," Smith says.

 




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