PREVIEW
After long delays in voter registration and organising logistics, few believe the vote could be credible
Widespread scepticism greeted Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah’s announcement at the Africa CEO Forum in Abidjan on 12 May that three years of military dictatorship will come to an end in December when Guinea holds presidential and legislative elections.
It was made as part of a presentation to boost investment in Guinea and to celebrate the start of production at the Simandou iron-ore mine, the biggest in the world. It seems that Bah wanted to distinguish Guinea from the junta-ruled states in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger where the ruling soldiers have banned civilian politicians and awarded themselves another five years in power. General Mamady Doumbouya’s junta has been in power since ousting President Alpha Condé in December 2021. A year earlier, Condé had changed the constitution to allow himself to contest a third term.
The junta has been positioning itself for an election for months. In particular, the decision in March to release and pardon former junta leader Moussa Dadis Camara, who participated in a coup in December 2008, looked like an attempt to curry favour in Guinée Forestière, Camara’s home province, where he remains popular, and which is home to 18-20% of the electorate (AC Vol 66 No 8, Mamady Doumbouya plots a popular mandate).
Most of the opposition to Doumbouya is under heavy pressure. Political parties are still suspended while the regime has jailed and kidnapped opposition leaders and civil society activists.
The credibility of both the elections and a referendum to adopt a new constitution on 21 September are likely to be undermined by the lack of an accurate electoral register. Last November, the junta launched Récensement administratif à vocation d’état civil (RAVEC), a registration drive. Progress has been extremely slow and insiders warn that September is too soon for any credible electoral roll to be ready.
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