PREVIEW
Tough negotiations about public spending and taxes will now start after the polls in August
Talks on a new loan programme with the International Monetary Fund are set to start in late April, but the heavy lifting on a new agreement will only take place after August’s general elections, the Fund has confirmed after a week-long IMF staff visit, led by Edward Gemayel, left Lusaka on 4 March. Its verdict was largely positive, stating that President Hakainde Hichilema’s government has made ‘substantial progress in restoring macroeconomic stability’ while accessing $1.7bn under an IMF programme which ended in January (Dispatches, 30/6/25, Accra inches towards end of debt path, but Lusaka’s cash flow woes continue).
Though Hichilema’s personal popularity has slumped since defeating Patriotic Front leader Edgar Lungu in 2021, the PF is still in disarray and Hichilema is a strong favourite for re-election. The Tonse Alliance, a group of 11 opposition parties led by the PF, had selected Lungu as their presidential candidate, but his death last year has left a vacuum that remains unfilled (AC Vol 66 No 11, HH tries to take Lungu out of the game & Vol 66 No 12, After death, still bitterness). Miles Sampa, Given Lubinda and Robert Chabinga lead the main factions vying for the presidential nomination.
But there are some economic warning signs. The growth forecast for 2026 has been revised down to 4.5%, and the IMF has pointed to ‘emerging fiscal pressures’. It reckons that the government will miss a 3.8% fiscal surplus target by 1%.
As a result, the Fund is urging Hichilema’s government to stick to the course. It expects ministers to propose tax rises and to keep a lid on subsidies for farmers and other election‑related spending, none of which are likely to boost Hichilema's appeal or that of his United Party for National Development.
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