PREVIEW
A 55% jump in spending and four new army divisions promise more boots on the ground – but weak oversight means the windfall risks enriching contractors more than improving security
With an eye of February’s election and his declining popularity, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is promising the biggest expansion of military force since the civil war five decades ago.
On 24 July, Tinubu approved plans to expand the Nigerian Army from eight to 12 divisions and authorised the recruitment of 28,000 additional personnel. Four new divisions will be established in Makurdi, Ilorin, Jalingo, and Benin City.
The expansion in personnel ties in with the government’s new law to allow states to establish their own police forces, intended to reduce pressure on the federal police. Similarly, the new divisions are an attempt to decentralise control and improve response times.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reckons that Nigeria’s military expenditure rose 55% in real terms to US$2.1 billion in 2025.
However, the spending increase builds on a low base. SIPRI estimates that last year’s increases took defence spending to 1.2% of GDP, compared to an African average of around 1.6% and a global average of just over 2% of GDP.
And analysts, including local think tank Nextier, have warned that weak oversight, secrecy and corruption mean that increased spending is not translating into improved security. Extra spending on equipment is likely to mean more contracts with United States and Turkish contractors (AC Vol 67 No 14, School kidnappings fuel political crisis ahead of 2027 vote).
It estimates that Nigeria recorded 1,274 violent incidents in 2025, resulting in 4,654 deaths and 3,141 kidnap victims. Along with the cost of living, polls suggest that security is the main concern of Nigerians ahead of January’s general elections (Dispatches, 6/7/26, New polls show rising anger with Tinubu on economy and security).
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
https://www.africa-confidential.com
Prepared for Free Article on 09/09/2026 at 23:44. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact subscriptions@africa-confidential.com.
