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Egypt

Sisi’s military missions in Somalia and the Gulf risk deeper entanglement

Cairo's parliament backs Saudi Arabia as the Houthis threaten the Bab el Mandeb strait and Red Sea access

In a closed session on 26 October, Egyptian MPs authorised President Abdel Fattah el Sisi to send forces to support Saudi Arabia. Given the high sensitivity of the matter, the vote was kept secret (398 of 596 MPs were needed to approve the use of troops).

No Saudi request was announced beforehand. And Egyptian officials insist that any mission is defensive. That may not spare Egyptian troops and citizens from deepening entanglement in the war over Yemen and access to the Red Sea. The Houthis have warned Cairo that even indirect participation would count as involvement and make it a target.

Egypt was making over US$9billion a year from Suez Canal tolls (AC Vol 67 No 6, A vulnerable recovery under pressure). But these have crashed since the United States-Israel war on Iran has prompted shippers to seek alternative routes. And now the Houthi advance near the strait Bab el Mandeb threatens any early revival of heavy Canal traffic.

Cairo is also sending 1,000 soldiers to Somalia. It is taking military risks for what it hopes will be economic gains. President Sisi also wants to signal to Ethiopia that Cairo’s regional alliance with Somalia, Eritrea and Sudan has some teeth to it. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s beleaguered government in Mogadishu welcomes the help. Egypt’s soldiers are to be redesignated as part of the African Union-led mission combating the Al Shabaab, Islamist militia in Somalia.

Last week, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty visited Riyadh, insisting that Cairo would ‘explore every opportunity’ that could ensure a full Houthi withdrawal from ⁠territory seized during the group's advance in September near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (Dispatches 21/9/26, Houthi seizure of Yemeni coast threatens new Red Sea shock for Cairo). That could include Cairo joining the Mecca mutual defence pact linking Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey.

President Sisi has told the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman that any military assistance would be defensive and would not include attacks on the Houthi rebel group.



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