Addis Ababa strategists may plan to extend the war to Eritrea by accusing President Issayas Afewerki of backing TPLF...

They told Africa Confidential that President Issayas Afewerki sees working with the TPLF as necessary to guard against an Ethiopian invasion...

The Center for Research and Documentation run by a branch of Eritrean intelligence reported that Issayas Afewerki had rejected the idea of severing ties with the TPLF and Fano (AC Vol 67 No 14 Washington courts Issayas as Tigray edges to the brink)...

The Trump administration mulled the lifting of sanctions on President Issayas Afewerki's government as it seeks Eritrean cooperation on Red Sea security in response to the Iran conflict (Dispatches 27/4/26 Why Trump wants to treat with Issayas & AC Vol 67 No 13 The Red Sea reckoning to come)...

Eritrea has been loosely allied with Addis Ababa's enemies including the TPLF since President Issayas Afewerki and Abiy fell out following the end of the war and the Pretoria accord in November 2022 (AC Vol 67 No 3 Tigray's cold war with Addis heats up)...

By using Tigray as a buffer President Issayas Afewerki's government has in federal eyes further insulated itself from external pressure...

He knows his allies Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Djibouti President Ismaël Omar Guelleh and Eritrean President Issayas Afewerki will help him do so...

For President Issayas Afewerki an Ethiopia distracted by war at home is far less likely to pursue port ambitions on the Red Sea...