PREVIEW
By restricting political choice the incumbents have got the outcomes they want – but without any democratic credibility
Turnout numbers, however embellished, rather than the voting results were the main interest in the presidential elections in Djibouti on 11 April and Benin on 12 April, after the most credible contenders had been marginalised. It replicates a pattern seen in many other authoritarian political systems upheld by the victors as multi-party democracies.
The trend is more significant in Benin where the gains of the impressive pro-democracy campaigns in the 1990s have been undermined by outgoing President Patrice Athanase Talon, in power since 2016. A former head of Djibouti’s secret police and installed by his uncle Hassan Gouled Aptidon in 1999, President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh hasn’t harboured many democratic pretensions. The main hurdle to Guelleh – a 75-year age limit on presidents – was scrapped by MPs last year.
Priding himself on his geopolitical skills, playing off the French against the Americans and Chinese, Guelleh faces difficulties closer to home: his criticism of the United Arab Emirates’ interference in the Horn of Africa is straining ties with Ethiopia, a close ally of the Abu Dhabi Emirate. Now Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has cited the more than billion US dollars a year in fees that his government pays to use Djibouti port as motivating his drive for access to the sea.
By late on 11 April, incumbent Guelleh, was officially reported to have won 97.8% of the vote and secured a sixth term in office. The only other contender, Mohamed Farah Samatar, whose Centre Démocratique Unifié has no parliamentary seats, won 2.2%.
Until now Guelleh has avoided criticism by positioning Djibouti, at the heart of Red Sea security and global trade routes, as a vital partner for those seeking a foothold in the Gulf (Dispatches, 12/4/21, A trio of presidential elections exposes democratic downturn & AC Vol 58 No 8, Guelleh quells opponents). Djibouti hosts military bases and ports for the United States, China, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia and France: the US and Israel’s war with Iran highlights Djibouti’s utility.
In Benin the path for Talon’s hand-picked successor, Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni, to take over from President Patrice Talon, was cleared by limiting his challengers to Paul Hounkpè of the Forces cauris pour un Bénin émergent (FCBE), which took just 4.7% of the vote in January’s legislative polls (AC Vol 66 No 18, Talon to step aside).
The ruling coalition of the Union progressiste-Le Renouveau (UP-R) and Bloc républicain took all 109 seats at January’s parliamentary elections, after 65% of Béninois registered voters chose to stay at home (AC Vol 67 No 7, Wadagni chases a mandate).
Security has been at the heart of Wadagni’s campaign, four months after Nigeria provided military backing to quash an army mutiny and putsch against Talon. Both Wadagni and Hounkpè underscored their support for regional co-operation.
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