PREVIEW
Mohammed VI’s warning over migration strengthens the Spanish opposition’s border campaign, while a possible PP–Vox government complicates Madrid’s next move
King Mohammed VI has put Rabat’s migration partnership with Madrid on the negotiating table just as Spain’s Premier Pedro Sánchez fights to retain power in the 29 November election. Declaring on 9 October in parliament that the existing cooperation model had reached its limits, the King rejected ‘pressure, threat, or blackmail’.
Centre-right Partido Popular leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo is making Sánchez’s handling of the July influx into Ceuta a campaign weapon. Yet the opposition Partido Popular‘s forecast support of 31.9% against 28.1% for Sánchez’s Partido Socialista Obrero Español does not guarantee a governing majority. The latest polls suggest that the far-right Vox could become a coalition kingmaker, pushing other parties to take a tougher line with Rabat.
Sánchez has avoided criticising Morocco for the border surge on 30 and 31 July which saw more than 80,000 people cross into Ceuta, one of Spain’s exclaves in North Africa (Dispatches 3/8/26, Ceuta crisis exposes fault lines in EU migration strategy).
He has called for a permanent mission for Frontex, the EU’s border control agency, in Ceuta and for Ceuta and Melilla to join the European Union’s Customs Union by giving them the status of overseas territories (Dispatches 7/9/26, Sánchez seeks stronger EU role in Ceuta after mass crossing). That has angered many in Rabat since Morocco claims that Ceuta and Melilla are part of its territory.
Feijóo is trying to outflank him by promising a new immigration law that would facilitate the immediate return of people who enter Spain irregularly and to deploy the army.
In March 2022, Spain changed its position to support Morocco’s regional autonomy plan for Western Sahara, which badly bruised its relations with Algiers. Yet Madrid also wants to increase its gas supply from Algeria via the Medgaz pipeline. Watching with interest is the Algerian government. A leaders’ summit between President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and Sánchez is set for 20-21 October in Madrid, with the Medgaz pipeline’s future likely to be high on the agenda.
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