Super El Niño could trigger a devastating food security crisis, bringing crippling drought across swathes of southern Africa and destructive flooding in the Horn of Africa – the latest climate disaster to hit the continent.
‘El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific, and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in many parts of the world,’ the World Meteorological Organization h...
Super El Niño could trigger a devastating food security crisis, bringing crippling drought across swathes of southern Africa and destructive flooding in the Horn of Africa – the latest climate disaster to hit the continent.
‘El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific, and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in many parts of the world,’ the World Meteorological Organization has warned.
Forecasters put the probability of El Niño striking the region at 77-80% by late 2026, driving down rainfall during the November-March planting season. Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia and Botswana have been identified by the FAO and WFP as the most exposed.
That would compound the poor rains across much of the Horn – in Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia – which were well below average during last year’s planting season. So, too, were the long rains from March to May this year. South Sudan has already tipped into official drought status.
Drought will push up food prices, which are already set to rise because of constrained fertiliser supplies caused by the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. That, say a group of experts from Tufts University, could trigger a ‘multicountry polycrisis’.
The FAO and the WFP have appealed for more than US$200 million to help stave off famine. It looks like a drop in the ocean.
