PREVIEW
Ousted opposition chief plans western Kenya rallies as he opens another opposition front and demands strategic rethinking
Edwin Sifuna's path to a presidential run cleared on 9 July, when the Registrar of Political Parties rejected his appeal against dismissal as Secretary-General Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Nairobi Senator Sifuna, a skilled campaigner and mobiliser, is planning several rallies in western Kenya in the coming weeks. Allies say he will launch a presidential bid on 26 July.
It’s a crowded field and this latest breakaway in opposition ranks could benefit President William Samoei Ruto whose ruling coalition has kept the rump of the ODM, founded by Raila Odinga, inside his political tent for now. Others argue it’s more likely to be a clarifying moment for opposition activists and may strengthen support for Sifuna as an independent-minded politician. The core test will be whether it helps the opposition’s search for a strong unifying candidate with a national network to take on Ruto in next year’s presidential elections.
Sifuna was ousted from the Secretary-General post in February following months of bitter disputes between him and the ODM establishment over its role in Ruto’s government and as his coalition partner ahead of the 2027 general elections (AC Vol 67 No 4, The battle for ODM’s soul).
Having started as an anti-Ruto faction within ODM, Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi movement is winning popular support. It is also well thought of by those opposition leaders such as serial presidential candidate Kalonzo Musyoka, former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua who are promising to unite behind a single candidate against Ruto next year. Key figures in Linda Mwananchi, including Siaya Governor James Orengo, Sifuna and Embakasi MP Babu Owino, are still part of ODM but held meetings with Matiang’i during a recent tour of the Gusii community.
Cleophas Malala, the deputy leader of the Democratic Action Party, formed last year by Gachagua, has said that Sifuna must be part of a united opposition ticket for the 2027 polls. Sifuna had wanted ODM to seize the momentum created by the 2024 protests to become the party of Generation Z and abandon ethnic group-based politics. Matiang’i and Sifuna, from the Kisii and Luhya groups, are both from western Kenya.
Early opinion polling suggests that a Sifuna ticket with Wiper Patriotic Front leader Musyoka would be viable but marginally less popular than a Matiang’i-Musyoka ticket (AC Vol 67 No 14, All against Ruto, but united for whom?). In the short-term at least, Sifuna’s latest move is set to complicate the opposition’s search for unity.
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