Spending cuts announced in November should ease negotiations in January for an IMF package. Shocks are in store
The much-needed International Monetary Fund financial package expected in January will be accompanied by drastic cutbacks and a drop in living standards. Major cuts to fuel, electricity and...
The President may be comfortably installed in State House but he is not easing up on institutions which get in his way
The latest public body to feel President Edgar Lungu's enmity is the judiciary, which has been granting petitions to nullify some constituencies' results in the 16 August polls....
Vol 57 No 25 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The power struggle between President Zuma and senior ANC officials trying to force him out will intensify in January
Rival factions in the African National Congress are shoring up their support bases within the party for another round of combat. After surviving an attempt by his opponents...
Vol 57 No 25 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The Democratic Alliance is braced for battle as the former party leader says she may stand for the provincial leadership
The former Democratic Alliance (DA) leader and present Western Cape Premier, Helen Zille, has surprised many by saying that she may stand for the provincial leadership of the...
A new candidate will lead the MPLA into next year's elections. He is a devoted loyalist to the current President
Amid all the talk of the quiet Defence Minister, João Lourenço, taking over as head of the Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola, it is often forgotten...
Vol 57 No 25 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
General Siphiwe Nyanda was during the liberation struggle one of Jacob Zuma's closest confidants in the armed wing of the African National Congress (ANC), Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK),...
Vol 57 No 24 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The ANC leadership fired a shot across the President's bows. He is weaker than ever but no less determined to stay on
The African National Congress looked more deeply divided than ever as fault lines over the presidency of Jacob Zuma deepened early this week. A three-day meeting of the...
Vol 57 No 24 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
President Jacob Zuma and his allies are hoping rating agencies will downgrade South Africa's credit status to 'junk', sources among his supporters have told Africa Confidential. This, they...
After the fevered election campaign Lusaka's politicking remains in overdrive as plotters seek to oust the Vice-President
President Edgar Lungu sacked the Information Minister and Chief Government Spokesperson, Chishimba Kambwili, a founding member of the Patriotic Front, on 8 November. Although no official reasons were...
We examine the unique conjunction of war, debt, corruption and impunity which characterise Mozambique today. This presentation answers criticisms that have been made of Africa Confidential's coverage of the issue and sets the record straight with a comprehensive survey of the crisis
Mozambique's two main political parties remain locked in a sinister war of attrition as the economy nears total collapse. The Frente de Libertação de Moçambique, which has held...
Vol 57 No 23 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Backing from the ANC's top policy-making committee means that President Zuma can hang on but his authority is shrinking
This has been one of Jacob Zuma's worst months since becoming President in 2009. On 25 November, the mounting list of corruption allegations against him are to be...
The International Monetary Fund removed its 'remedial measures' on Zimbabwe on 14 November, just as clarity emerged over the financing of Harare's controversial 'bond notes'. Harare had settled...
When the Lusaka High Court 'provisionally' closed independent newspaper and website The Post on 2 November, its Editor and owner, Fred M'membe, told his confidants, 'It's time to...
Vol 57 No 23 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Energy Minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson faces renewed questions about the unauthorised sale of South Africa's strategic fuel reserve. Last December, 10 million barrels of oil were sold at a...
Politicians who benefited from land seizures are paying compensation and getting title deeds – in case the political tide turns
The government is making several payments to dispossessed farmers to regularise the legal status of land held by President Robert Mugabe's family and leading members of the ruling...
Vol 57 No 22 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Although the courts have ruled against him, the President's loyalists say he still controls the streets
The courts, civil society and the largest trades union took the lead this week as pressure on the governing African National Congress mounts to drop President Jacob Zuma...
Vol 57 No 21 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Progress is being made towards the much-hyped gas production but it's a long and twisting road towards tangible benefits
The massive economic growth rate of 24% which the International Monetary Fund predicted is no more. That was the Fund's figure for 2021, when gas production had been...
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Vol 57 No 21 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
As more details emerge about his business allies, the President's position in the cabinet and party is weakening
This month, the fight between President Jacob Zuma and his diminishing band of defenders on the one hand and on the other, the gutsy former Public Protector Thulisile...
Vol 57 No 21 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The murder of Jeremias Pondeca on 8 October is widely seen as an act of desperation by recalcitrant, old-guard members of the governing Frente de Libertação de Moçambique....
Calls for an emergency financing conference are growing amid deepening risks of economic and political chaos
After a flash of mid-year optimism about the prospects of a deal to settle Zimbabwe's foreign debt arrears and an injection of new money, there is a political...
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Vol 57 No 20 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The patronage networks which have sustained Jacob Zuma in the presidency are crumbling
As police fired rubber bullets at students in Johannesburg on 4 October protesting against rises in university fees, officials in the governing African National Congress were talking of...
Vol 57 No 20 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Revelations about more hidden loans will reinforce demands for a comprehensive investigation of state finances
With the world's fastest falling currency and one of its most damaging debt burdens, as Mozambique faces a still harsher regime of economic austerity, claims of another US$900...
Vol 57 No 19 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The Deputy President pays tribute to the ANC's heroes as he lays the groundwork for a presidential bid in all but name
The plush Mount Nelson Hotel at the foot of Cape Town's Table Mountain provided the perfect setting for the unofficial launch of the CR17 campaign, as Deputy President...
Vol 57 No 18 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Senior ANC figures use a commemoration for a party veteran to launch their campaign to force the President to step down
The funerals of veteran African National Congress leaders have become informal hustings where ANC and South African Communist Party (SACP) leaders can vent their anger about Jacob Zuma's...
The opposition petition against the election failed but Lungu is still gunning for the judiciary
When the Constitutional Court threw out the United Party for National Development (UPND)'s petition to dismiss the presidential election result because of fraudulent votes, it triggered a new...
The trial of a former Justice Minister and Attorney General came to a dramatic end on 24 August as the High Court in Lilongwe sentenced Ralph Kasambara to...
The sacking of State House Permanent Secretary Emmanuel Chilubanama on 29 August surprised many in Lusaka. Together with fellow State House aide Kaizar Zulu, he had played a...
Vol 57 No 17 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The fall in the ANC's vote to less than 50% leaves no single party in charge of some vital councils and the promise of much turmoil
One of the most fiercely contested elections in post-apartheid South Africa has left the African National Congress in shock, the Democratic Alliance energised and the Economic Freedom Fighters...
The patriotic pastor is in exile but opposition parties are regrouping to keep up the anti-ZANU-PF momentum
The euphoria created by the #ThisFlag campaign, which mobilises tens of thousands of supporters and is spearheaded by the now-exiled evangelical Pastor Evan Mawarire, is likely to fizzle...
Dos Santos increases his grip on the MPLA as a few new faces are admitted to the inner sanctum of power and wealth
The only surprise from the seventh ordinary Congress of the Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA), which ended on 20 August, was the complete absence of surprise....
The opposition legal challenge to the President's narrow win seems unlikely to succeed but there are major holes in his defence
Most pundits think that the opposition petition submitted to the Constitutional Court challenging President Edgar Lungu's much criticised election victory has only a slim chance of success. If...
Vol 57 No 17 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Caught between Frelimo and the exasperation of international donors, the Finance Ministry is a confusing place to be
New horror stories about public finances are continually emerging from the Finance Ministry as the confusion over who borrowed what and from whom beleaguers civil servants and political...
More and more prominent names are coming into prosecutors' sights but their political masters are applying the brakes
The conviction on 21 July of former Justice Minister Ralph Kasambara for conspiracy to murder is not just a victory for Malawian justice but a major morale boost...
While the President cracks down on critics, defectors back his rival and try to bring their ethnic support with them
The electoral return match on 11 August between President Edgar Lungu of the governing Patriotic Front (PF) and Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND)...
Vol 57 No 16 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The Youth League of the African National Congress in KwaZulu-Natal has fired the first salvo in the 2017 ANC succession race. It has publicly backed the outgoing African...
Economic meltdown and political anger raise doubts about the International Monetary Fund debt deal
When the government failed to pay army salaries on time on 14 July, it sparked fresh argument among ministers and ruling party barons about the way out of...
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Vol 57 No 15 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Governing party stalwarts are sanguine about their prospects in the local elections but the opposition smells a breakthrough
On a cold July evening, downtown Johannesburg was abuzz with celebrities and African National Congress politicians sporting designer outfits in party colours and drinking Champagne. This was no...
As the President plans his succession, he takes a stronger hold of the economy while promoting his daughter to giddy heights
The centre of Angolan politics shifted to Spain this month as President José Eduardo dos Santos arrived for his twice-a-year retreat on 2 July. It is in...
The President is determined to keep an opposition-supporting newspaper off the streets, seemingly at any cost
President Edgar Lungu wishes to keep The Post, the newspaper and news website which is his declared opponent, closed until after the 11 August election, say sources close...
Presidential advisor Kaizar Zulu is the architect – or is blamed for – a ruthless re-election strategy
Most people in Lusaka see Kaizar Zulu merely as President Edgar Lungu's State House sidekick but as the top aide puts it himself, nobody gets to see his...
The government has closed the leading independent newspaper which uncovered plans to rig next month's election
Credible claims of bias at the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) and the suspicious inflation of the number of registered voters are heating up the campaign ahead of...
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Vol 57 No 14 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Faced with an economic emergency, the country's leaders pray for indulgence from donors and hope hungry citizens do not revolt
President Filipe Nyusi still refuses to take special measures to deal with the economic crisis and is butting heads with donors over what is to be done. Meanwhile,...
Vol 57 No 13 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The National Treasury has launched an investigation into companies suspected of trying to profit from the volatility of the rand over the past year. Business circles have been...
Ahead of national elections on 11 August, the government has shut Post Newspapers, publisher of the country's biggest selling daily, claiming the company has failed to pay its...
International creditors have agreed to the government's plan to repay arrears but politicians and activists voice concern
This week, the government is to finalise its agreement to repay some US$1.86 billion of arrears to multilateral financial institutions. That will trigger its re-entry into the international...
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Vol 57 No 12 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Broadcasters are experiencing increasing pressure from the government to toe the line. Some are being banned from the air
The government is using its influence at the South African Broadcasting Corporation, the public service broadcaster, to silence dissenting voices and quash news of protest in the lead...
The surprise appointment of Isabel dos Santos, the billionaire daughter of President José Eduardo dos Santos, to chair the state oil company Sonangol has been greeted with dismay...
Vol 57 No 12 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
President Jacob Zuma's office is drafting a bill to restrict foreign funding for local non-governmental organisations and to compel international NGOs (INGOs) operating in South Africa to be...
Vol 57 No 11 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Evidence is mounting that security forces are fomenting a climate of fear to suppress urban dissent while they conduct a scorched earth campaign against centres of support for...
Vol 57 No 11 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Regulators have begun inquiries into whether or not the three Gupta brothers, Ajay, Atul and Rajesh, exported large sums of money to Dubai, where they are now believed...
Vol 57 No 11 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The debt time-bomb has all but exploded. A desperate government flails around looking for repayment solutions while public finances flounder
After Finance Minister Adriano Maleiane confessed in Parliament last week that the government could not cover a major loan repayment due on 23 May, a sovereign default looks...
Vol 57 No 10 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
As officials count the rising cost of the hidden debts, President Nyusi faces awkward questions from investors and donors
As Mozambique's mountain of dubious debts tops US$2 billion, there are growing calls for a forensic audit and an international police probe into the officials and entities involved...
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Despite mobilising thousands against the government, the opposition is failing to exploit the ruling party's weakness and division
Even with two years to go until the next general elections, the prospects for a grand opposition coalition to unseat the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front look...
Vol 57 No 9 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Battle is looming between the government and mining companies over plans for more black empowerment
Mining firms already struggling with low international commodity prices and rising labour costs are up in arms about the draft revised Mining Charter which the government issued for...
Vol 57 No 9 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Talk of a new trades union federation is closer than than ever to reality, Africa Confidential has learned. The country's largest union, the National Union of Metalworkers of...
New Prime Minister Olivier Mahafaly Solonandrasana faces a key test next month when he presents his government programme to Parliament. It will be a challenge to sustain majority...
The Fund has stopped flows to Maputo after secret debts came to light. Even more massive obligations remain hidden, we can reveal
Shocked by revelations that top security officials in Maputo had racked up secret state-backed loans as big as $1.5 billion, the International Monetary Fund has cancelled its emergency...
Vol 57 No 8 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A campaign calling for Zuma's resignation is growing while his battle with opponents inside the ANC is undecided
The governing African National Congress (ANC) is under pressure from a wave of popular protest the like of which has not been seen since before the first free...
Vol 57 No 8 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The Gupta family has flown out of South Africa and relinquished all posts in their companies, despite strenuous denials that they were leaving for good. They threatened Africa...
Vol 57 No 7 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Increasing surveillance of ANC dissidents and burglaries of journalists and activists point to paranoia at the top
A veteran of the pre-liberation African National Congress armed wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK, Spear of the Nation), General Siphiwe 'Gebuza' Nyanda doesn't scare easily. Yet when a...
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The central bank is restricting dollar exports in the face of strong resistance from the ruling elite
Government officials and bankers are 'narrowing options' for international transfers in US dollars because correspondent banks fear the United States government will punish them for dealing with the...
Hopes are high for a debt-repayment package, the next step on the road to new credit and investment but key reforms will be necessary
Zimbabwe has approached Algeria for US$900 million to help clear its debt-repayment arrears, financial sources in Harare have told Africa Confidential. Zimbabwe owes $1.8 billion to international financial...
Vol 57 No 6 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
When the Finance Minister went on an investment tour the President arranged for a nasty surprise to meet him on his return
Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan went to London, Boston and New York from 7-11 March to persuade investors, ratings agencies and the world that South Africa is still a...
The President may yet impose his authority on Frelimo, but many are wondering if the new broom is now back in the cupboard
A crucial series of Frelimo Central Committee meetings are due to take place between 21 and 24 April; they are President Filipe Nyusi's last chance to show party...
Vol 57 No 5 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The President asserts himself over Gordhan but the Finance Minister pushes back. An epic contest is shaping the country's future
Beleaguered President Jacob Zuma has just lost another round in his battle with a growing coalition of forces seeking his early exit. He is under attack from within...
In an unpredictable political landscape, the President is pulling out the stops to win the next elections
Elected by a narrow margin in January 2015 and presiding over an economy in free fall, President Edgar Lungu is trying to strengthen his position through constitutional amendments...
Vol 57 No 5 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The Gupta brothers, Ajay, Atul and Rajesh, are in the process of moving to Dubai, United Arab Emirates, say sources in the governing African National Congress. Several of...
Vol 57 No 4 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The party is leaching urban support as the polls approach and hopes to compensate for it in the countryside
Under pressure from party leaders and supporters, and from a variety of bad decisions and a stagnating economy, President Jacob Zuma appears to have abandoned formerly key African...
Vol 57 No 4 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The Gupta business family – brothers Ajay, Atul and Rajesh – has been catapulted on to South Africa's front pages since their friend President Jacob Zuma sacked Finance...
Vol 57 No 4 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A beleaguered president, facing charges of violating the constitution and under pressure on the economy, has grasped a lifeline thrown by business leaders
Delivering the State of the Nation address yesterday at the opening of what promises to be the South African Parliament's most turbulent year, President Jacob Zuma announced a...
The former Vice-President launches a new party which promises to be as much a challenge to Mugabe as to the opposition
A new political era beckons for Zimbabwe with the emergence of People First (PF). At least, that's the hope of its founder, former Vice-President Joice Mujuru. Another big...
Vol 57 No 3 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The contract of the new South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan runs only until this year's local government elections, Africa Confidential hears from Treasury sources. The date for...
China declines to circulate its currency in Zimbabwe and experts say that would do little to revive the economy anyway
President Robert Mugabe has come unstuck in his plans to circulate the Chinese currency, the yuan, in Zimbabwe. His government had hoped that such a project would ease...
Ex-President Joyce Banda is being investigated after she was repeatedly named in connection with the Cashgate affair in court, the Anti-Corruption Bureau has announced. It has not ordered...
Refugees have crossed into Malawi after clashes between the government and Renamo. Who is guiding Frelimo policy?
Mozambican villagers at a refugee camp at Kapise, Malawi, say they have fled government security forces who burned crops and homes in Tete, sources at the camp have...
Vol 57 No 1 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The local polls will be this year's first arena of conflict and re-alignment as the ANC fights for survival and the President picks his successor
The opposition has smelt blood and aims to give the African National Congress its toughest run since majority rule arrived in 1994. The ANC may lose key cities,...
The President faces a recalcitrant party, a highly aggressive Renamo and an economy beset by crisis
If President Filipe Nyusi thought 2015 would be his toughest year, 2016 may prove him wrong. Mozambique remains at a crossroads, with peace and perhaps prosperity in one...