Vol 58 No 25 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Contenders for the ANC presidency are scrapping for every single delegate vote with all the means at their disposal
The epic struggle between Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and current Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa for the leadership – some say the soul – of the governing African National Congress will...
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The military-assisted transition, as the government likes to call it, is far from over as new money trickles in
New President Emmerson Mnangagwa has to placate his restive allies in the military and ruling party while presenting a semblance of reform to woo the investors and diplomats...
A mountain of loans for expensive infrastructure and equipment is rapidly growing along with other loans that many fear are unsustainable
Amid growing concerns over the scale and urgency of Zambia's impending debt crisis, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have joined those who believe the country...
After deftly organising Mugabe's exit and Mnangagwa's accession, the ruling party sees no reason to make concessions to its opponents
When Pastor Evan Mawarire, founder of the #ThisFlag movement, walked free from the Harare High Court on 29 November having been acquitted on charges of trying to overthrow...
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The new regime's biggest job is to revive the disastrous economy. Job creation and debt relief head a long list of urgent tasks
It was new President Emmerson Mnangagwa's promise of 'jobs, jobs and jobs' that raised the loudest cheers on 22 November at the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front's...
Ex-President Banda has offered to pull President Mutharika's political chestnuts from the fire in return for immunity from prosecution
Facing myriad corruption charges from her time as head of state, ex-President Joyce Banda has held out an olive branch to her bitter rival, President Peter Mutharika, from...
Vol 58 No 24 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Campaigning for the ANC presidential nomination is reaching its peak as lobbies for the main rivals release early tallies
With barely two weeks to go before the crucial African National Congress elective conference on 16-20 December in Johannesburg, supporters of Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma claim they are leading the...
The President is dismantling the power of the former first family but there is a thirst for the clean-up to go further
It took less than two months in office for President João Lourenço to take a direct swipe at Isabel dos Santos, Africa's richest woman and the daughter of...
Vol 58 No 24 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
While Mozambique's poor struggle with austerity and inflation, President Filipe Nyusi will be soaring comfortably over them in his Canadair Challenger 850 private jet, acquired last month for...
Vol 58 No 23 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The African National Congress is at risk of breaking apart under the strain of factional fighting
The battle between Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Cyril Ramaphosa for the leadership of the African National Congress now centres on the fate of Secretary General Gwede Mantashe, who is...
Vol 58 No 23 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The South African Communist Party (SACP) will stand in its own name in local bye-elections in the Free State Province on 29 November. It will be the...
The governing Patriotic Front is looking more and more like a personal vehicle for President Edgar Lungu, now that a splinter party with a strong footing in the...
Along with the early morning mist, a mood of quiet elation enveloped Harare as news spread that President Mugabe was under house arrest
During the night of 14-15 November Zimbabwe Defence Forces soldiers were posted to strategic points in the capital, such as the police headquarters, the Central Intelligence Organisation, the...
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The sacking of the regime's veteran enforcer Emmerson Mnangagwa from the vice presidency has started the endgame
By throwing out Emmerson Mnangagwa from the Vice Presidency and the ruling party, President Robert Mugabe is testing his grip on the security services as the regime faces...
Negotiations on political reform between President Lungu and the opposition are due, but many doubt he will take the process seriously
Commonwealth Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari is due in Lusaka this month to mediate in talks between President Edgar Lungu's ruling Patriotic Front and opposition parties as part of...
Vol 58 No 22 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The president has a better grip on power now but still has much to do before confidence in him improves
President Filipe Nyusi needs to build on his recent assertion of control over party and state, analysts are saying. He is still hamstrung when it comes to the...
President João Lourenço's government has removed José Filomeno dos Santos (aka Zenu), son of former President José Eduardo dos Santos, from direct control of Angola's US$5 billion...
Regulators failed to stop London-based banks laundering hundreds of millions of dollars stolen from South Africa
HSBC, one of Britain's biggest banks, has been accused by a British peer of complicity in a US$500 million money-laundering scheme organised by businesses controlled by the Gupta...
Vol 58 No 21 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Mpumalanga Province becomes the most united voting block ahead of the ANC elections as President Zuma reshuffles his cabinet
Taking a high-stakes gamble ahead of the leadership elections in December, President Jacob Zuma has broken with the African National Congress's traditional allies in the Communist Party and...
Vol 58 No 21 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The ruling party's new politburo boosts the President's authority, but the two billion dollar debt scandal still casts a shadow
It has not been an easy journey for President Filipe Nyusi, who does not inspire the same personal loyalty as his predecessor, the redoubtable Armando Guebuza. The first...
President Lourenço talks to parliament about pro-growth reforms, some of which will chip away at the Dos Santos business empire
Pledging to take on monopolies that short-change consumers and to open discussions with critical civic activists, President João Lourenço used a speech at the opening of parliament on...
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High politics, spies and opaque business interests are suspected in the sharp decline in the country's diamond wealth
On paper, the parastatal Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation is effectively bust. Ever since the Auditor General, Mildred Chiri, reported in June that ZMDC's liabilities exceeded its assets by...
Vol 58 No 21 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The Reserve Bank is easing the pressure on KPMG. It worries about scaring investors while it tries to make companies more accountable
The government is in disarray over how to handle the deepening crisis unleashed by the auditing firm KPMG’s involvement in the affairs of the Guptas and the 'state...
Elections may be two years away, but corruption scandals are already making the ruling party's prospects look grim
Cashgate is the scandal which keeps on giving. Ever since the epic looting of the Treasury by government ministers and political parties broke surface in 2013, few politicians...
Lourenço's first appointments leave a country hungry for change doubting that any reform is imminent
Invitations to the VIP area at João Lourenço's inauguration in Luanda on 26 September were hard to come by, even for the ruling-party elite, such was the anticipation...
Vol 58 No 19 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The global auditor becomes the latest corporate casualty of a spiralling corruption scandal claiming unexpectedly prominent scalps
In a grovelling public apology after 18 months of silence, auditing giant KPMG admitted that its senior executives in South Africa had 'made mistakes' and 'ignored red flags'...
Vol 58 No 19 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The outcome of the leadership race in December may hang on a raft of legal challenges as to how conference delegates were chosen
The campaign for Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to succeed her ex-husband as African National Congress leader, which he is backing heavily, may fail if the courts allow the challenges of...
The sudden decline in Morgan Tsvangirai's health is a heavy blow to prospects of a united anti-ZANU-PF front in the next elections
Opposition hopes are fading that a repeat of the massive poll victory for President Robert Mugabe and the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) in 2013 can be...
Portuguese Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Ana Gomes has complained to the European Commission about the Angolan presidency's propaganda unit influencing Euronews, a Commission-funded news channel. The...
Vol 58 No 18 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The Deputy President sees the hand of his boss in the hack of his email account and smears on his ANC leadership bid
The increasingly hotly contested battle for the leadership of the African National Congress got a little dirtier when Cyril Ramaphosa, Deputy President of the ruling party, was targeted...
Vol 58 No 18 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The leak of the full Kroll audit has revealed the extent of Maputo's lack of cooperation and leaves both sides unable to move forward
The audit of the US$2 billion of secret loans by the corporate investigations and risk consultancy Kroll was supposed to clear the air between the governing Frente de...
A settlement in the dispute between mining giant First Quantum Minerals (FQM) and Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines-Investment Holdings (ZCCM-IH) looks as distant as ever. President Edgar Lungu ordered...
The daughter of outgoing President José Eduardo dos Santos, billionaire businesswoman Isabel, was the beneficiary of a hitherto unknown paternal windfall, according to an investigation by Der...
The Presidential family’s media companies pump out propaganda, provide cover for spy agencies , troll political opponents on social media and control assets in the US, Portugal and Brazil
Semba Comunicação is the state-subsidised private corporation controlled by Welwitschia 'Tchizé' Dos Santos, José Eduardo dos Santos's 39-year-old daughter and his 32-year-old son José Paulino 'Coreón...
Although the MPLA is set to win this week's elections, the business bonanza enjoyed by the President's family may not last
There is one thing about the general elections of 23 August we can be almost certain of: Defence Minister João Lourenço, hand-picked by President José Eduardo dos Santos,...
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Vol 58 No 17 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
After failing in a no-confidence vote, Jacob Zuma's opponents are lobbying for his impeachment
Twenty minutes after Speaker Baleka Mbete had announced on 8 August that the President had survived yet another confidence vote, a beaming Jacob Zuma, surrounded by bodyguards, swept...
The ruling party is laying the groundwork for using biometric technology to help it rig the result of the next election
High hopes for biometric electoral registration, which should be in place before the 2018 elections, may well be misplaced, Africa Confidential can reveal. Leaders of the Zimbabwe African...
The country's most senior judges are under assault from commentators who suspect them of siding with the government
The Constitutional Court faces harsh criticism for a perceived bias towards President Edgar Lungu and for reversing its decisions after he and members of the governing Patriotic Front...
Vol 58 No 16 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The ruling party is under growing pressure to decide between its leader and its future
As South Africa's political crisis deepens ahead of the no-confidence motion vote aimed at ousting President Jacob Zuma on 8 August, a broad front of civil society organisations...
A Rwandan former general exiled in South Africa, Faustin Kayumba Nyamwasa, has lost his official status as a refugee. Pretoria is using a May court ruling to improve...
Whether or not the rumours about the President’s ill health are true, the signs that his era is ending are already showing
The state of health of President José Eduardo dos Santos has long been one of Angola's best-kept secrets. So it has remained for the three months since...
When central bank Governor Valter Filipe da Silva took the platform at a meeting on Angola's financial sector on 5 July, some listened to him describe the government's...
Vol 58 No 14 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
A summary of the much anticipated audit of the secret US$2 billion loans is out. It reveals they were all buck and no bang
The audit by Kroll Associates of the loans to three supposed maritime projects talks about what the US$2 billion loans were not spent on but not where the...
Vol 58 No 14 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The presidential hopeful depends on a delicate mix of favours, talent and self-interest to produce his leadership slate
The Deputy President of the governing African National Congress, Cyril Ramaphosa, and his followers are performing an intricate balancing act. They are busy finalising nominations for the top...
President Edgar Lungu declared a state of emergency on 5 July, confirming the fears of oppositionists. 'If I become a dictator for once, bear with me,' he told...
Vol 58 No 13 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Next week's policy conference promises to bring all the party's problems together in an explosive combination
Senior African National Congress leaders are deeply worried that the stresses within the governing party could tear the ANC apart as they look forward to next week's policy...
The giant commodities firm hopes to help its politically favoured partner, Sakunda Holdings, to cash in on an expected gas boom
Multinational commodities trader Trafigura is expanding into power generation and natural gas, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), via its local Zimbabwean ally and partner, Sakunda Holdings, according to...
Harare is abuzz with speculation about upheavals in the ruling party which could change the succession game
A vital meeting of the Politburo of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front was due to take place as Africa Confidential went to press. Such is the turmoil...
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Suspecting a plot to rig the presidential election, the opposition has mobilised huge crowds
'We only have God, the people and the law. We want fair elections,' read one of the posters held by protestors from Angola's main opposition party, the União...
Vol 58 No 13 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A coalition with Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters gave the Democratic Alliance control of key cities, including Johannesburg and Tshwane (Pretoria) after August's local elections. The EFF will...
Vol 58 No 12 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Facing down his many foes in the ANC, the President could be planning to use the crisis to prolong his leadership
Nothing seems to stick to South Africa's President Jacob Zuma and the more he is attacked, the more powerfully he bounces back, albeit at the expense of his...
Vol 58 No 12 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Six months after investigations began into the $2 billion in secret loans, revelations of fat commissions and failed projects emerge
Senior officials and donors are still pondering the still secret audit which consultants Kroll Associates delivered to Attorney-General Beatriz Buchili on 12 May, after three extensions of the...
The reclusive and secretive President José Eduardo dos Santos sparked much speculation about whether he had suffered a minor stroke last month. He was spirited to Barcelona, Spain,...
The alliance of Prime Minister Pakalitha Mosisili's Democratic Congress (DC) and Deputy Prime Minister Mothetjoa Metsing's Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) has lost the snap election that Mosisili...
A cash shortage threatens another crisis and the government is desperate to stop it affecting its 2018 poll prospects
Inflation has started to rise again since, in an economy dominated by the US dollar, the government introduced a de facto domestic currency at the end of last...
President Lungu and First Quantum are to settle the dispute out of court – to the dismay of the state copper boss
After weeks of high stakes gamesmanship over claims that First Quantum Minerals had cheated Zambia out of as much as US$2.3 billion, President Edgar Lungu has ordered his...
Vol 58 No 11 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The embattled African National Congress is rapidly running out of money as funders desert the party because of the increasingly erratic behaviour of its leader, President Jacob Zuma....
Vol 58 No 10 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The beleaguered President believes the best defence is attack as he blames white business and the West for his woes
President Jacob Zuma has been trying to undermine his critics by claiming that all public attacks on his actions – whether in the media, from opposition parties or...
Vol 58 No 10 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The once popular Jacob Zuma finds his room for manoeuvre ever more restricted as both supporters and enemies box him in
Humiliatingly shunned by both the powerful business community and the forces of labour and the left, President Jacob Zuma is on the defensive as never before. He has...
One of the biggest mining companies wants assurance its directors won't be arrested when they arrive to attend board meetings
The British-based mining company First Quantum Minerals Limited has written to the Attorney General to seek assurances that none of the directors of Kansanshi Mining PLC, which FQM...
President Lungu's actions in imprisoning the opposition leader are viewed with growing amazement and alarm
Hakainde Hichilema's arrest for treason was at first dismissed as an intimidatory gimmick by President Edgar Lungu after the 'clash of the motorcades' early this month. However, as...
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Ministers are torn between demanding cash from a mining giant accused of fraud and maintaining a cosy relationship
The move by Zambia's largely government-owned mining investment company to sue First Quantum Minerals for fraud has put its chief executive officer Pius Kasolo at loggerheads with figures...
Vol 58 No 9 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The new Finance Minister swings through New York and Washington trying to give an impression of business as usual
South Africa's fourth Finance Minister in two years, Malusi Gigaba, encountered bemusement and indifference when he visited the United States last week for the International Monetary Fund and...
The much-anticipated report on the secret loans is due out amid doubts about how much it will – or can – reveal
Expectations and tension were building as the 28 April deadline for the delivery of the risk advisory firm Kroll's report on secret security state loans approached. Attorney General...
A cabinet reshuffle is intended to restore the government's image but Hery has an uphill task before the coming election
President Hery Rajaonarimampianina is desperately trying to regain the political initiative after taking heavy blows to his government's reputation after it allowed a controversial presidential advisor to leave...
Vol 58 No 9 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Much of the raison d'être of the controversial 1 trillion rand (US$72 billion) nuclear deal with Russia rests on President Jacob Zuma's belief that he owes his life...
Vol 58 No 8 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
After denouncing the sacking of Gordhan, oppositionists and ANC dissidents hit the streets. Then it's over to parliament
Pro-democracy forces brought tens of thousands of protestors into South Africa's streets last week following President Jacob Zuma's ousting of Pravin Gordhan from the Finance Ministry and his...
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Vol 58 No 8 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Amid ANC rivalries for the succession, the new Finance Minister believes he could get the top job
The controversial Malusi Gigaba, the former Home Affairs Minister now elevated to the Finance Ministry, has been proposed by influential sections of the African National Congress as a...
Vol 58 No 8 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Heavy-handed quashing of dissent and voter fraud is cutting support for President Zuma in his heartland province
The powerful KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) branch of the African National Congress, the governing party's largest, lifted Jacob Zuma into the ANC presidency at its 2007 and 2012 national conferences...
After violent clashes en route to Kuomboka, the government wants to outlaw the main opposition party and gaol its leader
Extraordinary sights greeted viewers of the Prime TV News television channel on 8 April as President Edgar Lungu and United Party for National Development (UPND) leader Hakainde Hichilema...
Leaked bank documents reveal the extent of capital flight for which members of the party elite are responsible
The timing could scarcely have been worse. João Lourenço, the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola's candidate to succeed President José Eduardo dos Santos, was claiming...
Vol 58 No 7 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Optimists are in short supply as the significance sinks in of Gordhan's recall from overseas and the implications of a reshuffle
Only the beleaguered judiciary and Pravin Gordhan's fiscal management stand between South Africa and economic doom. This is an increasingly common refrain within the political class as evidence...
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Vol 58 No 7 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The South African Communist Party intends to withdraw its members from President Jacob Zuma's cabinet if he goes through with the sacking of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, party...
Vol 58 No 6 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
By calling for land redistribution without compensation, Zuma is following his Zimbabwean counterpart and throwing his foes into confusion
Just as mounting political crises again threatened to overwhelm President Jacob Zuma, he pulled out the land card to buy himself breathing space before the African National Congress's...
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Bringing in the US oil giant was a personal triumph for the President but it won't raise as much tax as he hopes
President Filipe Nyusi felt the political ground underneath him get firmer when news of the Exxon-ENI deal came through. The United States oil giant ExxonMobil is buying 25%...
The cabinet is shedding ministers tainted by Cashgate and related scandals as the government's authority dwindles
President Peter Mutharika is becoming increasingly isolated as a succession of ministers are forced out of office. This makes him more dependent on alliances with largely discredited figures...
The President is confident that judges will rubber-stamp his eligibility to stand again in 2021. If not, a two-thirds majority in Parliament is within easy reach
President Edgar Lungu had barely begun his second term of office this year when he declared himself ready for another. Although the constitution states that no president who...
Vol 58 No 5 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
President Jacob Zuma is hesitating over a reshuffle which could tear the African National Congress apart
President Jacob Zuma has become increasingly irritated with his respected Minister of Finance, Pravin Gordhan, who was widely praised after presenting a balanced budget on 22 February amidst...
The influence of President Lungu's staff worries many. Business deals and dirty tricks against the opposition are multiplying
Concern about the actions of State House advisers has grown so much that President Edgar Lungu felt obliged to persuade civil servants not to be intimidated. At a...
A battle royal is in progress over selecting the new Chief Justice; he or she could end up deciding who becomes the next president
The Chief Justice of Zimbabwe, Godfrey Chidyausiku, reaches the compulsory retirement age of 70 during February, which has set the cat among the factional pigeons of the ruling...
Vol 58 No 4 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Relentless attacks on the President's character are weakening the economy and undermining his influence on the succession
With ten more months as leader of the African National Congress (ANC), President Jacob Zuma tried to shore up his government with a flurry of populist policies –...
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Fuel trader Trafigura is boosting the ruling party by lending at an inordinate rate to a flagship agricultural programme
The commodity giant Trafigura is providing major financial support to a government programme called Command Agriculture in what is widely seen as a major boost to the Zimbabwe...
Luanda's latest lavish defence contract has eerie echoes of Mozambique's controversial naval procurement
Angola is planning a major expansion of its navy with the help of Privinvest Group, the company which supplied fishing vessels and high-technology military patrol boats to Mozambique....
A growing faction in the governing Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) favours repudiating its US$2 billion in questionable secret loans. It wants those responsible for the loans,...
The government has decided to mobilise domestic savings and deposits to plug the gap in public finances under the routine-sounding name of the State's Annual Debt Plan. The...
The three-cornered fight between the president and his predecessors looks set to continue, and with it yet more instability and conflict
Just when Malagasy politics appeared to be edging towards a more consensual mood, with the last-minute passage of the 2017 budget and a distinctly upbeat December donors' meeting...
Vol 58 No 1 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The ANC's bitter internal battles threaten to slow government business to a crawl
On South Africa's Reconciliation Day on 16 December, President Jacob Zuma's speech in the North-West Province was brought to a halt when strong wind and heavy rain blew...
The people who trapped the country in secret debts are still in charge and likely to remain, but investment is falling
President Filipe Nyusi is weak and not in effective control of either the country or the governing party, the Frente de Libertação de Moçambique. Political instability will be...
Vice-President Mnangagwa looks increasingly set to take over the reins despite the First Lady's strong opposition
The country's restless public has failed to dislodge its nonagenarian leader, Robert Mugabe, who has ruled since 1980. If predictions of his demise have been as premature as...
The president's aim to have a third term will dominate politics much as the anticipated IMF programme will dominate the economy
After a year dominated by the election that controversially returned President Edgar Lungu and the Patriotic Front to power, the main political battles in 2017 look set to...
With oil revenue no longer able to conceal the cracks, a reckoning is coming for the banks which lent freely to the elite and now face a mountain of bad debt
Two queues can be seen outside any branch of Banco de Poupança e Crédito, Angola's biggest public lender: a long one of hopeful withdrawers of cash, and a...