Vol 66 No 24 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A ratings upgrade and stronger fiscal projections boost optimism, but job cuts and slow investment still haunt the ANC
Political sentiment in South Africa is among the most febrile on the continent – if that is any comfort to President Cyril Ramaphosa. After the G20 Leaders’ Summit...
It felt like a case of ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’ when Angola’s President João Lourenço hosted the European Union-African Union summit in Luanda, as AU chair. No...
Vol 66 No 23 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Legal setbacks, stalled offshore projects and a looming supply crisis threaten both industry and climate targets
The Integrated Resource Plan pushed through cabinet by Minister for Energy and Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa last month is ambitious in scope and financing – envisaging a 2.23 trillion...
ExxonMobil won’t recommit to its gas export scheme until Maputo agrees resumption terms with TotalEnergies
Over US$50 billion of gas investments are riding on the outcome of a financial fight between President Daniel Chapo’s government and France’s TotalEnergies Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné. The...
Vol 66 No 22 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Business leaders sound the alarm over the country’s economic drift, despite signs of fiscal recovery
South Africa is caught in a classic debt trap, with the economy growing more slowly than the interest the government pays on its rapidly expanding debt. In recent...
Protests grow at nepotism and corruption in the ruling clique as the economy staggers on despite the mining upturn
Hours before opposition leaders were set to launch their campaign on 28 October against President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa’s plan for a third term, arsonists gutted the SAPES Trust...
Vol 66 No 21 |
- MADAGASCAR
Mass demonstrations prompted President Andry Rajoelina’s removal from power. Now the military is back in the driving seat
It was the military’s backing for the Gen Z protests against President Andry Rajoelina that forced him to flee aboard a French military jet on 12 October. At...
Vol 66 No 21 |
- MADAGASCAR
Colonel Michael Randrianirina’s rapid rise from a senior military officer to the presidency of Madagascar owes much to luck and Gen Z. Randrianirina would not be president without...
A long-delayed bill aims to modernise the mining industry but may entrench elite control due to legal ambiguities and weak oversight
Zimbabwe’s parliament is mulling a plan to modernise one of Africa’s most mineral-rich economies – but the long-delayed Mines and Minerals Bill may consolidate rather than challenge the...
Vice-President Chiwenga accuses President Mnangagwa’s allies of looting US$3.2 billion from party coffers and demands arrests
The annual conference of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front’s (ZANU-PF), which veers between sycophantic theatre and high-stakes factional drama, is set to host a fiery confrontation when...
Landslide election victory reflects mass frustration with failed promises of the Chakwera government
After their comfortable election win, 85-year-old former president Peter Mutharika and his running mate Jane Ansah are expected to move quickly with an economic stabilisation plan after they...
Washington-based BGR Group hired ex-Paris CIA station chief to aid defendants in sovereign wealth fund and hidden loans scandals
More questions are being raised about the accountability of lobbying companies after it has emerged in filings lodged with the United States government that veteran CIA agent Dale...
A former African National Congress (ANC) Mayor of Johannesburg, Parks Tau’s career was in jeopardy after losing the mayoralty to the Democratic Alliance’s Herman Mashaba in 2016 after...
Rival contenders in the diamond industry are challenging Gaborone’s resource nationalism
When President Duma Boko announced in New York on 22 September that his government was preparing to take a majority stake in the De Beers diamond conglomerate by...
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Soaring prices, broken alliances and corruption reduce the President’s chances of winning re-election and favour his 85-year-old predecessor
Malawians go to the polls on 16 September in an election that could make President Lazarus Chakwera the third one-term president in the past 11 years. All the...
Vol 66 No 18 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
TotalEnergies moves to restart its $20bn gas project behind a fortified green zone after 60,000 citizens displaced
Four years since the deployment of Rwandan and Southern African Development Community forces in July 2021, the security situation in northern Cabo Delgado remains fraught – contradicting Maputo’s...
President Trump’s threat of 50% tariffs decimated textile factories, exposing the government’s limited choices
Almost three years after Sam Matekane’s Revolution for Prosperity (RFP) stormed to power on an anti-corruption and pro-business platform, Lesotho is reeling from tariff whiplash, a suspended United...
Vol 66 No 18 |
- NAMIBIA
- CANADA
MPs are to vote on a call to investigate claims that Canada’s ReconAfrica broke accountability and environment rules
Canada’s Reconnaissance Energy Africa – ReconAfrica – first started drilling for oil and gas in the Kavango basin of north-eastern Namibia four years ago and has been mired...
The defence chief’s foreign policy pronouncement in Tehran exposes President Ramaphosa’s waning authority
The most serious problem with South African National Defence Force (SANDF) Chief General Rudzani Maphwanya’s visit to Iran from 12 to 14 August was that President Cyril Ramaphosa...
Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah’s presidency will be shaped by how her government manages the fossil fuel bonanza. Her election last December coincided with the take-off of the country’s oil boom...
Pretoria warns of long-term economic damage as the US weaponises trade for political pressure
There is little prospect of short term relief from the United States increasing tariffs to 30% on a wide range of South African imports, with the new rates...
Vol 66 No 15 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
After explosive claims of cartel-backed infiltration, Ramaphosa suspended key officials and launched a judicial inquiry but risks losing control of the coalition
On 6 July, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) police commissioner Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi accused Police Minister Senzo Mchunu and Deputy National Police Commissioner Shadrack Sibiya of colluding with criminal elements to...
Vol 66 No 15 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Ramaphosa says the forum will produce a social compact for jobs, power and security – critics dismiss it as political theatre
As accusations about top politicians’ colluding with people traffickers and drug dealers dominate public debate in South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa has been trying to refocus attention on...
As Harare’s top oligarch edges into politics, senior ZANU-PF cadres push back – and opposition chief Chamisa prepares a comeback
The president’s favourite oligarch, Kudakwashe Tagwirei, is rapidly transitioning from shadowy financier to top public figure – usually wearing the signature striped scarf in national colours introduced by...
Eyeing minerals and markets, western governments are softening their stance on rights abuses and grand corruption
A quarter of a century after Britain under Prime Minister Tony Blair led the charge against Zimbabawe President Robert Mugabe’s land resettlement plan, the two governments – both...
The IMF cancelled its programme in May, topping a bad news week for the president as the opposition looks confidently at September’s poll
The breach between the International Monetary Fund and the government over the ending of the US$175 million Extended Credit Facility (ECF) halfway through its economic reform programme could...
President Hakainde Hichilema is under fire for his laggardly response to ex-President Edgar Lungu’s death, following claims by the opposition that he prevented his predecessor from travelling abroad...
Fund officials are due to rule on programme this month opening the prospect of serious negotiations with creditors
Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube may be about to notch up the first tangible success for six years in his quest to restructure Zimbabwe’s US$21 billion debt – persuading...
Zuneth Sattar goes to court in London accused of bribing Malawi’s top officials and politicians but neither they nor he face prosecution back home
Preliminary hearings have begun in the trial for bribery of Malawian/British business owner and Malawi government contractor Zuneth Sattar, 44, who is charged with 18 counts of bribing...
The President is so fearful for his re-election prospects that he is using threats and inducements to persuade his former foe to leave politics
Although he beat ex-President Edgar Lungu by a landslide in the 2021 election, President Hakainde Hichilema believes his old enemy is an obstacle to his hopes of re-election...
Two South African billionaires have cleared the path for a business accord to unfreeze the diplomacy
Until a month ago, the chances of President Cyril Ramaphosa getting a constructive meeting with his United States counterpart Donald J Trump appeared vanishingly small. After a barrage...
Under sanctions for grand corruption, Zimbabwe’s First Lady is due to address a conference in London where Labour MPs are expected
Despite accusations of electoral fraud and massive corruption against the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front, President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s wife, Auxillia, has been invited to a summit in...
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has been weakened after the three-month budget dispute that brought President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Government of National Unity to the brink of collapse. Ramaphosa is...
Finance Minister Vera Daves de Sousa was one of the few African star turns at April’s spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank,...
Rejecting calls for his exit, the President is lining up his closest business ally for a top political role
The anticipated resignation of the Second Vice-President Kembo Mohadi presents President Emmerson Mnangagwa with a chance to consolidate his power base as dissent grows. The First Vice-President General...
Vol 66 No 8 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Both the ANC’s Ramaphosa and the DA’s Steenhuisen are fighting to preserve power-sharing – but for vastly different reasons
When Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana failed to secure backing within the Government of National Unity (GNU) on 12 March for his proposal to raise VAT from 15% to...
The national stayaway exposes the growing schism in the ruling ZANU-PF as the President tries to extend his rule
The 31 March protest – in the form of sporadic demonstrations across the country and a national stayaway – unleashed a fresh wave of anger against President Emmerson...
President Daniel Chapo and challenger Venâncio Mondlane sign an accord but have no political plan in sight
By releasing 4,800 political prisoners and calling off the riot police, Frelimo has admitted defeat, but it can’t negotiate a national unity government. After six months of post-electoral...
Officials say growth may rebound to 6% up from 2% but the prospects are hampered by inflation, low revenues and tight reserves
Adding to the mixed messages over who is setting economic, monetary and security policy, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) John Mushayavanhu announced on 11...
President Ramaphosa wants to soothe tensions with the Trump administration but Washington has appointed a hard-liner to South Africa
The choice of the United States’s new Ambassador to Pretoria – Leo Brent Bozell III – dispels any notion that President Donald J Trump’s administration might dial down...
The collapse of negotiations offers some stark choices as President Tshisekedi’s position weakens further
A week of diplomatic spats and foiled negotiations has handed more political weight to the M23 militia and its Rwandan backers to add to their string of victories...
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Washington’s tariffs, visa bans and aid cuts are pushing Brussels and Pretoria into a stronger partnership
As the new United States administration targets South Africa on policy and the European Union on tariffs, it has triggered an opposite reaction – bringing President Cyril Ramaphosa...
After lambasting the Masisi government’s fiscal recklessness, new finance chief forecasts 3.3% growth
Faced with a weak diamond market but high voter expectations, the new Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) government disregarded business advice and its own economic strategy in its...
Vol 66 No 5 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The Government of National Unity’s credibility is on the line as finance minister Godongwana prepares to return to parliament with an amended budget
When finance minister Enoch Godongwana told the cabinet on 19 February of his plan to raise value added tax to 17% from 15% just hours before he was...
The military officers who backed the coup against Mugabe are turning against his successor
On the morning of 19 February, Zimbabweans awoke to find videos on their social media feed of tanks rolling down the Borrowdale Road, in one of the plushest...
High ambition has not been matched by progress on debt negotiations, as discussions with the IMF drag on
Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube’s plan for an IMF deal paving the way for debt restructuring is being frustrated. Following a two-week mission to Harare that concluded on 13...
On 28 January, President Emmerson Mnangagwa hosted ‘inventor’ Maxwell Chikumbutso at State House to demonstrate a ‘self-powering vehicle’. At the event, covered by state media and widely publicised...
An internal coalition spat was resolved just hours before the President’s State of the Nation address
The government’s determination to hit its 3% GDP growth target and to push its policy agenda as it chairs the G20 this year dominated President Cyril Ramaphosa’s speech...
Ruling party candidate Daniel Chapo has been sworn in as president but inherits an economy ravaged by corruption and post-election protests
Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) took the presidential oath on 15 January, but post-election protests have cast serious doubt over how effectively...
Vol 66 No 2 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A fresh bout of optimism about the prospects for economic recovery isn’t helping the venerable ANC
From key note addresses to international investor conferences, nation-boosting speeches to the UN General Assembly to grassroots rallies in the township, President Cyril Ramaphosa knows how to tailor...
Disunity among leftists, trade unionists and the populists of the EFF and MK has weakened opposition to the centrist GNU
Cyril Ramaphosa’s grand political coalition has survived its first six months with modestly rising investment levels, lower inflation, and energy reforms. As the first African country to chair...
The president’s failure to rein in grand corruption and his business allies is weakening the economy further and makes a political implosion more likely
The failure to sustain the launch of Zimbabwe’s latest local currency – and the macro-economic consequences of that – will haunt the country and Emmerson Mnangagwa’s presidency in...
An unpredictable battle between ex-presidents looms in September as the last nail is driven into the coffin of the Anti-Corruption Bureau
Malawi’s electoral process got off to an uncertain start as the opposition demanded the resignation of Malawi Electoral Commission chair Judge Annabel Mtalimanja and took to the streets...
Before Trump takes over in Washington, the French oil company wants the US export bank to back its gas export plan
France’s TotalEnergies is making a final push to win United States funding for its liquefied natural gas project in northern Mozambique before Donald J Trump is inaugurated US...
Anger is rising as civic activists say police have killed over 130 protestors and the Constitutional Council prepares to rule on disputed election
Mozambique’s police crossed a previously unthinkable line on 14 December when they opened fire on mourners after the funeral of 30-year-old Albino José Sibia, known as ‘Mano Shottas’....
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