José Filomeno dos Santos, aka Zenú, is on trial in Luanda accused of illegally taking US$500 million out of the country during his time as head of Fundo...
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Vol 60 No 24 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A new CEO has come to the electricity utility, but the government is still picking its battles carefully and change remains gradual
Finance Minister Tito Mboweni described national power utility Eskom as 'South Africa's biggest economic risk' next to low growth. The gigantic utility is an albatross around the African...
The election outcome for SWAPO was even worse than expected. The writing is on the wall for the ruling party
Everyone was expecting the electorate to deliver a snub to the ruling SWAPO Party in the 27 November general election – but not quite the loud slap that...
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Vol 60 No 24 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Opponents of President Cyril Ramaphosa in the African National Congress's biggest province intend to start a fightback at the National General Council in 2020 with a vote of...
Zambia has defaulted again on its €97 million (US$107m) loan from Italian bank Intesa San Paolo for the purchase of two C27J twin-engined military transport aircraft from Italy's...
Vol 60 No 24 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The first of the criminal trials in connection with Mozambique's $2bn 'tuna bonds' hidden loans scandal has ended with the surprise acquittal of Lebanese salesman Jean Boustani at...
As the country faces the worst drought for 30 years and inflation at over 440%, politically connected oligarchs see opportunities
Days after regional leaders called for dialogue across the political divide to resolve Zimbabwe's deepening crisis, police broke up a crowd outside the headquarters of the main opposition...
A bad land reform record, a corruption scandal and electoral fraud claims will shake but not topple the ruling party in the polls
Namibia is in the grip of a crippling drought, but negative economic growth, blatant disregard for its election promises and persistent scandal will do little to prevent SWAPO's...
Vol 60 No 23 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The main opposition party is wracked by divisions over 'affirmative action' after its black leaders suddenly resign
The departure of both Mmusi Maimane as leader of the Democratic Alliance and Herman Mashaba as mayor of Johannesburg has sent shock waves through the main opposition party...
A coterie of colourful advisors around President Lungu is competing for influence and contracts
Tussles for supremacy among President Edgar Lungu's key advisors have claimed scalps in his ever-smaller inner circle. One of the most important was that of former journalist Amos...
Vol 60 No 22 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
After the government's brutally honest budget statement, unions and business are pushing rival policies to boost jobs and growth
The sense of a return to the Mandela spirit in the wake of South Africa's 32-12 victory over England in the Rugby World Cup final on 2 November...
Vol 60 No 22 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The EFF leadership is facing challenges from within amid allegations of corruption at the top of the party
Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters has always prided itself on being a cohesive unit speaking with one voice but with a month to go before the party's elective...
The ruling party’s decisive election victory has ended ex-President Ian Khama's campaign to unseat President Mokgweetsi Masisi
The Botswana Democratic Party won a new five-year mandate by a larger margin than expected on 23 October, taking 38 of the 57 seats in parliament, one more...
Vol 60 No 21 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Despite claims that the election was won through fraud and violence, the results will stand and strengthen the President’s hand
President Filipe Nyusi has won a second and final term of office with the second-largest majority since multi-party elections began in 1994. The election win – which included...
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Vol 60 No 21 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Supporters of President Cyril Ramaphosa are increasingly worried about moves against him by opponents in key African National Congress branches including Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.
Vol 60 No 21 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Privinvest salesman Jean Boustani's trial on money-laundering charges in connection with Mozambique's $2 billion hidden loan scandal started in New York on 14 October.
Opposition activists are determined to hold the government to account for a crisis that will see half the country in need of food aid next year
With 8.5 million people facing serious food shortages next year, the discovery that some senior state officials are profiteering by importing 17,000 tonnes of grain at double the...
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Vol 60 No 20 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The President hopes that his bold plan to replace coal with renewables will rescue the ailing power utility and reboot the economy
Three key developments this month will shape South Africa's economic standing – Finance Minister Tito Mboweni's budget statement, Moody's credit rating report and the appointment of a new...
As the former president turns on his successor, the country’s political pluralism will be tested to the limit
After 53 years in power, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) is facing its toughest challenge in national elections on 23 October with former President Ian Khama and his...
Zambia is on the brink of an energy crisis that threatens to hike tariffs for consumers already feeling the economic hardship caused by the country's rocketing debt service...
Under pressure from falling revenues, mounting debt and high expectations, the President pledges radical change
With sweeping promises of a multi-billion-dollar privatisation programme, including the state oil company Sonangol, President João Lourenço attracted top diplomats and business people to the Council on Foreign...
After xenophobic attacks and corporate rivalries, the leaders of Africa’s two biggest economies are to meet next month
For pan-African economic alliances and security cooperation much is riding on the summit between Presidents Cyril Ramaphosa and Muhammadu Buhari, due to hold on 3 October in South...
Vol 60 No 19 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Mozambique's Minister of Finance, Adriano Maleiane, is under growing pressure to explain his role in allegedly covering up the US$2 billion hidden loan scandal. The United States Department...
Facing corruption probes and resource nationalism, Western mining companies are quitting the Copperbelt
Producing 70% of the world's cobalt, an essential component of electric car batteries and mobile phones, Africa's Copperbelt is in the midst of a sweeping transformation. Seeking to...
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The economic collapse overshadows the death of Mugabe, but it still presents opportunities for elite manoeuvrings
The death of Robert Mugabe means little to the majority of Zimbabweans. Not only are most too young to be aware of the liberation war and the dawn...
Vol 60 No 18 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Happenstance as well as outright vote manipulation is boosting the ruling party’s general election campaign
As many as 1,000 people may have died in the devastation that Cyclone Idai wreaked on the port city of Beira, which made tens of thousands homeless. Yet...
Vol 60 No 18 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Cyril Ramaphosa's supporters have claimed that the broadcast of the wrong version of the President's recent address to the nation was 'deliberate sabotage' by supporters and appointees in...
IMF-inspired austerity may cause distress but it is not allowed to affect the flow of cash from the Command Agriculture programme to regime figures
Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube may be instituting deep, painful economic reforms to regain financial credibility abroad, but he has no control over the cash machine by which the...
Obituary: Robert Gabriel Mugabe, 21 February 1924-6 September 2019 – By Wilf Mbanga
William Shakespeare said it best in Julius Caesar: 'You all did love him once – and not without cause. What cause withholds you then to mourn for him?'...
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Vol 60 No 18 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The government needs support on the left to sell neo-liberal reforms to the public, including drastic action on Eskom
President Cyril Ramaphosa has regained some political stability by seeing off opponents on both his political flanks. After he endorsed economic policies his traditional communist and trade union...
The main opposition party wants an interim power-sharing deal. The government accuses it of using mass protests as a bargaining chip
Through the last 17 years of his rule, former President Robert Mugabe consistently dismissed claims of human rights violations as part of a Western plot to bring about...
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Vol 60 No 17 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A caretaker leadership in the Western Cape is supposed to arrest the ruling party's electoral decline
Ace Magashule, the African National Congress Secretary-General, has read the riot act to the newly constituted Western Cape Provincial Task Team to start working in communities and end...
The opposition leaders' campaign to annul the May elections depends on getting more angry people on the streets
Three months after the highly contested and narrowly won elections, politicians, civil society and even religious leaders are divided between pro-opposition and pro-government factions. The issue is unlikely...
As the economic meltdown boosts national resistance to the government, the main opposition party senses opportunity and regroups
Observing the success of mass protests in Algiers and Khartoum against highly militarised regimes, Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is planning a change in tactics, stepping...
Vol 60 No 16 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The case against the bankers in the $2bn loans scandal has brought confessions, but there are doubts about how deep the trial will go
The United States case against eight defendants accused of fraud and money-laundering in Mozambique's US$2 billion hidden loan scandal has secured two guilty pleas at the Eastern District...
Vol 60 No 16 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The government’s zeal for wide-ranging reforms is flagging against a pushback by his enemies within and outside the ANC
Battered by an economy in recession and a ruling party riven by corruption, President Cyril Ramaphosa's ability to drive radical economic and political reforms is coming increasingly into...
Vol 60 No 16 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A secret internal report exposes the in-fighting, ghost members and battles for state spoils that are wrecking the ANC
By a quirk of history, it fell to Ace Magashule, Secretary General of the African National Congress and leading beneficiary of Jacob Zuma's leadership, to deliver the most...
Vol 60 No 16 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Political fortunes are swinging back and forth but the President's foes in the ANC are preparing for a survival struggle
After the latest round of proxy battles, President Cyril Ramaphosa is marginally ahead of his predecessor Jacob Zuma, but his supporters warn that his opponents still control too...
Vol 60 No 15 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The former President failed to convince at the state capture commission, but Ramaphosa took hits from another quarter
The African National Congress breathed a collective sigh of relief – party insiders said – when the questioning of former President Jacob Zuma, who is facing multiple corruption...
The dismissal of Zambia's embattled Minister of Finance, Margaret Mwanakatwe, on 14 July came as no surprise, although a few eyebrows were raised at the choice of Sunday...
Shortages of fuel, electricity and bread are creating panic as the government faces a cash-flow crisis
Two weeks after the Zimbabwe government banned the use of foreign currency, the economy is reeling. Statutory Instrument 142, published without warning on 24 June, decreed that the...
The President is set for re-election in November, but a chronic failure to deliver land reform and jobs clouds the outlook
There is virtually no prospect of President Hage Geingob, Namibia's first non-northern head of state, failing to secure a second five-year term in the presidential and legislative elections...
President Edgar Lungu's government has proposed sweeping changes to the Zambian constitution that critics say are aimed at reducing scrutiny and improving his chances of retaining power at...
Vol 60 No 13 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
As President Ramaphosa purges corrupt politicians from the cabinet, Zuma supporters are grabbing key appointments in parliament
Opponents of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in the ruling African National Congress have opened a new front in the ruthless campaign to remove him from office by...
Vol 60 No 13 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Voter-registration has been hijacked by the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique, which is blatantly inflating the electoral roll with ghost voters in order to win a clear...
Vol 60 No 12 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The ruling party at war with itself searches for answers to a looming recession, spiralling unemployment and failing parastatals
Two wings of the African National Congress – the constitutional and the rent-seeking – are engulfed in a civil war which could turn the country's economy into a...
Malawi's defeated oppositionists are taking different attitudes to May's disputed presidential polls, and that appears to be playing into newly re-elected President Peter Mutharika's hands.
The Finance Minister’s IMF-backed reforms will impose harsher cuts while aiming to end subsidies for elite farmers
Agricultural subsidy reforms that reach to the heart of Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front's (ZANU-PF) patronage structure – which underpins the regime – have been negotiated...
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Vol 60 No 11 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
David Mabuza’s strategic manoeuvres challenge both his boss’s authority and the plans to reform the economy
On the eve of the expected announcement of his drastically trimmed and revamped cabinet on 27 May, a power struggle erupted between President Cyril Ramaphosa and his deputy...
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Mnangagwa tightens the noose on civil activists to distract attention from the faltering economy
The arrest of five civic activists on 20 May typifies the crackdown President Emmerson Mnangagwa's government is implementing. Aware of the penury into which most citizens are forced,...
The final result had to be decided in court, so narrow was the victory margin and so mired in accusations of rigging
After a bitter, though largely policy-free, campaign in which the main candidates jockeyed for ethnically advantageous alliances while flinging accusations at each other, the High Court finally awarded...
The liquidity crisis continues while the exchequer has a different kind of problem with liquids to deal with
The government's chronic shortage of cash has resulted not only in late payment of salaries for public servants, but also in a four-week default on a large loan...
Leaders of Mozambique's ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique(Frelimo) won an unexpected victory over the United States when South Africa's Justice Minister Michael Masutha overturned a court decision...
Ex-President Ian Khama has given up on pursuing his rivalry with President Mokgweetsi Masisi within the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) and founded his own. Although he is...
Vol 60 No 10 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The President has the mandate to purge corruption from the ANC but his foes in the party will complicate reform efforts
President Cyril Ramaphosa's mandate at the polls, amid waning support for the ruling African National Congress and rapidly growing support for the populist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), leaves...
The state oil company’s chair took the blame for chronic fuel shortages but there are deeper currents at work
The sacking of Sonangol chair Carlos Saturnino Guerra Sousa e Oliveira on 8 May is a deeply political affair, according to sources in Luanda. Saturnino replaced the billionaire...
After shaking off a challenge for the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) leadership, President Mokgweetsi Masisi has begun a clear-out of the ruling party and cabinet ahead of elections...
The war of words between politicians is becoming more and more frenzied as polling day nears with no obvious favourite
The result of the 21 May general election is now anybody's guess, as President Peter Mutharika of the Democratic People's Party (DPP) and his main rival Lazarus Chakwera,...
Vol 60 No 9 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Jacob Zuma’s allies rally the troops to vote for the ruling party at provincial level – but endorse other parties at the national level
President Cyril Ramaphosa is running almost a solitary national campaign for the African National Congress in the 8 May elections while his opponents in the party, led by...
The liquidity problems are getting worse and state asset sales are looking more likely as a last resort to avoid debt default
The lavish spending and borrowing of President Edgar Lungu's government is starting to catch up with it. Africa Confidential has learned that in March, it had to raid...
Senior ruling party figures are sabotaging the programme to stabilise the country's finances by exploiting their access to US dollars
Two months after the launch of vital currency reforms, the official exchange rate is still way out of line with the parallel market, despite solemn commitments by the...
President Mokgweetsi Masisi has fended off a dangerous challenge for the leadership of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) from former senior cabinet minister Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi, widely seen as...
Vol 60 No 7 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Although the ANC is set to win over 50% in the election, that won’t settle the factional rivalries over economic interests and policies
The African National Congress is in far worse shape than it should be as it heads for victory in the 8 May elections. President Cyril Ramaphosa is still...
The power struggle between President Mokgweetsi Masisi and his predecessor Ian Khama has taken an extra-territorial twist with the involvement of Zimbabwe's Central Intelligence Organisation.
Vol 60 No 6 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The ruling party’s candidate list for May’s elections is full of Zuma loyalists, which could damage the President’s image and cost votes
President Cyril Ramaphosa's anti-corruption campaign is being undermined by key leaders of the ruling African National Congress loyal to former President Jacob Zuma. They have enabled allies of...
The economy is crashing at home, with worse in the pipeline, but the Finance Minister’s plans are winning support overseas
Backed by France, Japan and South Africa, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube is pushing a tough economic reform plan to pay off Zimbabwe's international arrears by the end of...
Former President Joyce Banda has withdrawn from the presidential race, and she may have effectively taken President Peter Mutharika out of the contest too. Mutharika's nemesis, Vice-President Saulos...
Politicians and parties are in a frenzy of alliance-hunting and opportunity-seeking as the general election looms
President Peter Mutharika has snubbed his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) political gurus and picked a political novice, Everton Chimulirenji, as his running mate for the vice-presidency. The decision...
Vol 60 No 5 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The President has assembled an impressive trio to drive his economic reform plans, while he seeks to handle the politics
A year after becoming President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa has gone a long way to transforming the political landscape and curbing corruption, but his toughest task lies...
Companies are adjusting their strategies in an era of resource nationalism
It seemed like a defining moment when Mark Bristow, the new chief executive officer of Barrick Gold, was asked at the African Mining Indaba in Cape Town last...
President Edgar Lungu's brand new Gulfstream G650 business jet arrived on 28 February and is parked in a purpose-built hangar at Lusaka international airport, which now boasts a...
President Lungu has chosen not to dismiss a minister after police found millions of dollars’ worth of cash in his home
Two weeks after his arrest on corruption charges, Zambia's Infrastructure Minister Ronald Chitotela remains in President Edgar Lungu's cabinet. After a tip-off from the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC), local...
The Reserve Bank’s devaluation of its bond notes and surrogate currencies lays the ground for a new national currency
As food imports dwindle and oppositionists gear up for a fresh round of protests, the government has announced a radical shake-up to its currency regime to boost foreign...
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The arrest last weekend of Ndambi Guebuza, eldest son of ex-President Armando Guebuza, in connection with the US$2 billion hidden loans scandal has sent shock waves through the...
Vol 60 No 3 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The mining behemoth’s fortunes are improving just as Vedanta makes clear its takeover ambitions
As mining investors and managers gathered for the annual Mining Indaba in Cape Town on 4 February the talk was of little else but the rumour that Anglo...
A ferocious fight lies ahead for President Masisi as his predecessor mobilises to oust him from the top of the ruling party
Ex-President Ian Khama's anger at his successor, President Mokgweetsi Masisi, is so strong that he is backing a rival candidate to remove him from the leadership of the...
Vol 60 No 3 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A diplomatic storm blew up just after Shamila Batohi, the new national director of public prosecutions, took over from her compromised predecessor, Shaun Abrahams, on 1 February. President...
As protests against austerity grow, factions within the military and ruling party are vying for power and bludgeoning dissent
Everything hangs on the economy in 2019, but the outlook is dire. There are two semi-functional currencies apart from real US dollar notes: electronic 'US dollars' in local...
The economy and the popularity of President Lungu are shrinking fast, but the opposition is struggling to take advantage
With no prospect of a deal with the International Monetary Fund, the stand-off with donors over embezzled aid money far from resolved, ballooning domestic arrears, and low foreign...
Indictments against foreign bankers and top Frelimo officials tied to the $2billion secret loans fraud have panicked the government. The charges are just the beginning
The United States government has indicted a swathe of bankers, sales people and Mozambican public officials with wire fraud, money laundering and securities fraud. It claims a criminal...
Vol 60 No 1 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Ramaphosa must appeal to the left to win a mandate for liberal economic reforms. It’s not the only paradox here
The African National Congress's strategists do not doubt the ruling party will emerge from the May national and provincial parliamentary elections by far the largest party, but the...
Vol 60 No 1 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Vol 60 No 1 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Ramaphosa is almost certain of victory in May, but then his challenges really begin
South Africa is facing an even tougher year economically in 2019. The disastrous legacy of former President Jacob Zuma may seem distant but its echoes will continue to...
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President Lourenço’s long honeymoon will come to an end as public focus shifts to the economy
João Lourenço will consolidate his power in 2019, cashing in on his popularity and position as President of both the country and the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertacão...