Vol 61 No 25 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The balance in the ANC’s factional war has turned decisively in the President’s favour, leaving the Secretary-General few options
President Cyril Ramaphosa has scored in the ongoing battle against the faction bent on unseating him with this week's decision by the African National Congress's Integrity Commission that...
The finance minister forecasts a turnaround but the central bank’s illicit borrowing could trigger another monetary meltdown
Despite the pandemic and global recession, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube is predicting a strong economic bounce-back next year – but he is silent about a phenomenal borrowing spree...
Zambia's chances of a bailout from the International Monetary Fund following its default on its Eurobond coupon payments are looking bleak, in spite of conciliatory words from a...
The electorate dealt a stunning blow to the ruling SWAPO Party in the 25 November municipal elections, costing it its majority in four of the country's 14 regions....
After the default, the bondholders and Chinese creditors are jostling for priority but secrecy and local politics are blocking a credible solution
National politics and geopolitics are set to scupper any attempts to resolve the crisis over Zambia's more than US$12 billion foreign debt. There is little sign that President...
Vol 61 No 23 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The pro-Zuma ANC leader is standing his ground in the face of corruption charges, but his position weakens as pressure mounts
The 10 November arrest of the second most powerful politician in the ruling African National Congress on charges of corruption, following more than 100 graft-related arrests in recent...
Vol 61 No 23 |
- BOTSWANA
- NAMIBIA
Relations between neighbours Botswana and Namibia have hit a new low following the shooting dead of four Namibians by the Botswana army along the Chobe river frontier on...
President Lazarus Chakwera's Malawi Congress Party won a narrow victory over its coalition partner, the United Transformation Movement, in the bitterly contested Karonga Central by-election on 10 November....
Young activists are demonstrating against rocketing prices, worsening unemployment and double-standards on corruption
President João Lourenço faces deepening public anger over the country's economic implosion and accusations that his anti-corruption campaign is replacing one set of dishonest officials with another.
The ruling coalition parties are fighting each other in by-elections amid the challenges of turning a new page in a time of austerity
Campaigning for the by-election in the northern seat of Karonga Central on Tuesday 10 November has been exposing the widening cracks in the ruling coalition, especially between the...
Vol 61 No 22 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The medium-term budget is seen by some as a fudge in the struggle between liberalising reform and preserving the state sector
The government has firmly held the line against the left and the labour movement's efforts to defend ailing state-owned enterprises. President Cyril Ramaphosa is also boosting the Zondo...
Many noted the bitter irony of President John Magufuli's government arresting all the leaders of Tanzania's opposition parties on clearly absurd terrorism charges (see Feature) at a time...
As dissent grows and government lacks finance for a new land scheme, the finance minister insists prospects are brightening
Rejecting the gathering gloom about the national economy, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube released a budget strategy paper on 16 October forecasting the economy would grow by 7.4% next...
Vol 61 No 21 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
President Ramaphosa has made a renewed commitment to review public ownership and plot out a major role for the private sector
After a decade of corruption, economic decline and a crippling pandemic, President Cyril Ramaphosa has unveiled his Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan, which does not go as far...
Vol 61 No 21 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The insurgents in Cabo Delgado retain the initiative, having attacked a village in Tanzania and reportedly destroyed a Tanzania People's Defence Force armoured personnel carrier on 14 October....
A local company goes to court to recover $300m from the state power utility as bondholders postpone a vote on the government's request for debt relief
The operator of the country's only coal-fired power station, Maamba Collieries Ltd., has opened arbitration proceedings with Zambia's state-owned electricity utility Zesco to recover US$300 million it is...
Vol 61 No 20 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A combination of worsening power cuts and investigations into grand corruption in the state utility and its suppliers has forced a policy shift
The government is finally backing a plan that will open the state power utility Eskom to private investors, putting the energy sector at the core of the country's...
Vol 61 No 20 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A spate of arrests of officials on corruption charges is leading to the door of Ace Magashule, Secretary-General of the ruling party
Within weeks Cyril Ramaphosa will face his toughest battle as President as he tests his authority against the second-most-powerful politician in the country, African National Congress (ANC) Secretary-General...
Deteriorating relations between the holders of Zambia's $3 billion Eurobonds and the government after its 22 September request for a six-month suspension of coupon payments point to one...
The de facto default on Eurobond payments is getting in the way of a plan by the ruling party to create a slush fund for its next election campaign
The government's request on 22 September to holders of its US$3 billion of Eurobonds for a six-month suspension of repayments will have political repercussions as well as the...
Vol 61 No 19 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The government has done nothing to dislodge Islamist guerrillas who have held a coastal district capital for over five weeks
After attacking Mocímboa da Praia several times this year, the Islamist insurgents of northern Cabo Delgado took control of the coastal town, which is a port and the...
Vol 61 No 19 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Local and international buyers are circling the debt-crippled and state-owned Denel as it is forced to sell its assets to stay afloat
Denel, the remnant of the arms manufacturing and trading colossus Armscor that once propped up apartheid, is probably the least-known of South Africa's beleaguered state-owned enterprises.
A platinum mine that could be Zimbabwe's biggest is yet again raising the hopes of the leaders of the Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) although it looks...
Vol 61 No 18 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
If ANC Secretary-General Ace Magashule isn’t caught up in a prosecution, the President’s clean-up could be stopped in its tracks
Leading South Africa's delegation for crisis talks in Zimbabwe on 8 September – no matter how tortuous – must have been a welcome break for Ace Magashule, away...
The listing of Botswana in February on the European Union's list of countries deemed not to be cooperating in the fight against money laundering and terrorist financing came...
Vol 61 No 18 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Former President Armando Guebuza has been named in the High Court in London as a 'third party' in the civil case brought by Mozambique's Attorney-General, Beatriz Buchili, against...
President Chakwera's fight against corruption is popular but concerns are growing about nepotism and schisms in his coalition
The first sixty days of office have not been kind to President Lazarus Chakwera. Swept into office on a wave of campaign promises of clean government and the...
Vol 61 No 18 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
With backing from ANC leaders and vast evidence, the President can make good on his pledge to prosecute rogue officials
It may prove to be the most decisive two days in Cyril Ramaphosa's presidency. He went into the National Executive Committee of the African National Congress on 29...
A recorded telephone released on social media exposes the extent of Kuda Tagwirei's business empire and its ties to the presidency
If the leaked audio recording of his telephone call with ruling party acolyte Temba Mliswa is any guide, businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei's role in government is stronger than ever...
Vol 61 No 17 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Allegations of Covid-related procurement fraud by ruling party officials are threatening to derail public confidence in the President
President Cyril Ramaphosa is in a desperate fight for the credibility of the African National Congress after a spate of arrests and asset seizures over fraud in the...
Giving no reason, President Edgar Lungu sacked the respected governor of the central bank, the Bank of Zambia, Denny Kalyalya, replacing him with Christopher Mvunga, formerly Deputy Secretary...
A South African billionaire wants to sue the government in Gaborone as President Masisi's battle with his predecessor intensifies
It is political drama of the pandemic age. At an international press conference on video-link on 19 August, mining magnate Bridgette Motsepe rejected accusations of money-laundering and theft...
After two years of dangerous drift, military officers and state officials are covertly talking to oppositionists about the President’s exit and a transitional authority
The extraordinary morning broadcast by President Emmerson Mnangagwa on 4 August reinforced the national sense that his legitimacy is eroding as fast as the value of Zimbabwean dollar....
READ FOR FREE
Vol 61 No 16 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The Covid-19 pandemic is revealing some uncomfortable truths about the country’s politics as the pressures and dangers increase
Most accept that the ruling African National Congress and President Cyril Ramaphosa started the pandemic well. The President masked up immediately and has stayed masked, unlike many world...
The sudden arrest of the health minister is more about the jockeying for high office than campaigns against corruption
Once one of President Edgar Lungu's closest allies and considered by many his most likely successor – or at least his running mate in next year's general election...
Political pluralism gets a boost as the President balances the demands of voters with those of his broad coalition
While former President Peter Mutharika finally packed his bags and sought solace at an official government holiday residence on Lake Malawi, newly elected President Lazarus Chakwera faces the...
READ FOR FREE
Vol 61 No 14 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
As an ANC faction moves to reinstate provincial officials and delay economic reforms, Ramaphosa’s credibility is on the line
As South Africa continues to ease its Covid-19 lockdown, President Cyril Ramaphosa faces a country teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, a ruling party more divided than...
Vol 61 No 13 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
With the ANC leadership united to fight the pandemic, President Ramaphosa may bring in liberalising reforms and end the bail-outs
Finance Minister Tito Mboweni's post-Covid-19 budget is a balancing act that offers President Cyril Ramaphosa a chance to radically restructure the country's ailing state-owned enterprises (SOE) or submit...
Vol 61 No 13 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Regional security bodies have been criticised for not doing more about the Islamist insurgency but Maputo was reluctant to sound the alarm
The crash of a Bathawk microlight aircraft belonging to the Dyck Advisory Group private military contractor (PMC) in Mozambique on 15 June has thrown a spotlight on a...
Malawi's rerun presidential election on 23 June went off relatively peacefully, and early returns as Africa Confidential went to press indicate that President Peter Mutharika has lost the...
Vol 61 No 13 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Debt-laden, dysfunctional and unable to find a modern role, the state arms-manufacturer is being steadily cut back
The debate about whether post-apartheid South Africa really needs its own arms industry and such a large military establishment has been raging since the country’s first democratic elections...
Vol 61 No 13 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
After a strong start mobilising people against the pandemic, Ramaphosa faces multiple complaints against the security forces and a looming economic meltdown
Civil rights activists, opposition politicians and business leaders are mounting legal and moral challenges to the lockdown, claiming it is being used as a cover for human rights...
Vol 61 No 12 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Using the pandemic as a pretext, top ANC officials jostle for positions, some arguing for radical and sweeping policy changes
Before the Covid-19 pandemic struck South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa and his centrist supporters were locked in combat with followers of former President Jacob Zuma, African National Congress...
The chances of holding fresh elections in time are dwindling as the President blocks key appointments and confirmation of the poll date
While political parties push ahead with mass campaign rallies – ignoring all social distancing and the ban on gatherings of more than 100 – there is still no...
Vol 61 No 11 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
As the pandemic stretches out, the President is facing resistance from the public, business and political opponents
President Cyril Ramaphosa has bowed to mounting business and popular pressure to ease the lockdown from 1 June but has warned that the worst of the pandemic is...
The Patriotic Front has helped groups of artisanal miners form companies in return for delivering the vote in this crucial region
As so often in Zambia's elections, the Copperbelt will be decisive in next year's general elections and President Edgar Lungu's Patriotic Front (PF) is facing an uphill battle...
Vol 61 No 11 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Allegations of drugs crime and bribery are dogging President Filipe Nyusi's family. The transparency watchdog Centro de Integridade Pública has accused the President's eldest son Jacinto of laundering...
The struggle for control of the opposition MDC is ramping up as ZANU-PF uses divide and rule to weaken its strongest foe
In-fighting for control of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change is playing into the hands of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front, which hopes to gain international...
Vol 61 No 10 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The public is starting to tire of one of the world’s strictest restrictions in response to Covid-19 as cracks appear in the political consensus
The armed forces are patrolling the streets to enforce a nationwide curfew from 8pm to 5am as citizens can only exercise between 6am and 9am, and no more...
President Hage Geingob has courted unaccustomed controversy by appointing his friend, the politically connected businessman Johannes !Gawaxab, to fill the vacancy left by Ipumbu Shiimi as governor of...
The government is getting no help from the IMF because it won't stop borrowing unsustainably and covertly
After stopping payments on several commercial loans this year, Zambia is set to default on its US$3 billion Eurobonds, now trading at 'distressed debt' levels, with yields over...
Senior finance officials in Washington say that grand corruption and state violence have to go before they resume economic cooperation with Harare
In an extended mea culpa on behalf of President Emmerson Mnangagwa's government, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube has written to the international financial institutions (IFIs) in Washington saying it...
READ FOR FREE
The government has mishandled a growing insurgency in the gas-rich north of the country. Many fear it is now too late to regain the initiative
The latest massacre by an Islamist militia in the remote north of the country and its occupation of two coastal towns have thrust a simmering rebellion centre-stage, but...
Vol 61 No 9 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Economists question whether the immense Covid-19 relief package will just help business or the wider population
President Cyril Ramaphosa's 500 billion rand (US$26bn) stimulus to sustain South Africa's already precarious economy during the Covid-19 lockdown has been welcomed by business and opposition leaders, but...
The cornered Prime Minister Thomas Thabane continues to cling to office but looks to have run out of options. After several days of talks mediated by Jeff Radebe,...
The coronavirus outbreak has turned the spotlight on those in charge, highlighting successes and exposing deficiencies
With South Africa in the third week of a lockdown that may only be lifted at the end of April, and possibly not even then, President Cyril Ramaphosa...
The government is taking steps to compensate expropriated farmers while trying to make sure that the farms of ZANU-PF bigwigs are not affected
Zimbabwe's land reform programme, which ended up largely benefitting senior members of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), state security and army officers and their families, is...
The public is becoming used to the contest for supremacy between the President and his Vice-President as it turns into a war of attrition
President Emmerson Mnangagwa has been locked in a love-hate relationship with the military ever since he rose to power in the military coup of November 2017. Against the...
Lawmakers agreed to President Mokgweetsi Masisi's plan to extend a State of Emergency (SoE) from 28 days to 6 months over the coronavirus outbreak despite complaints that the...
Drastic measures to contain the pandemic, coupled with the Moody’s downgrade, have strengthened the President’s hand – for now
The South African government has vowed to respond to the double shock of the coronavirus pandemic and a credit ratings downgrade by making overdue structural reforms to prevent...
The re-run of the presidential election looked certain to see Mutharika fall, but all bets are off now that political rallies are banned
The new presidential election mandated by the Constitutional Court in February was always going to be bad news for President Peter Mutharika, especially with the new requirement that...
The first reaction of Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front high-ups to the pandemic was to blame the West, or at least to gloat at its misfortune. Defence Minister...
READ FOR FREE
President Mokgweetsi Masisi's leadership on the coronavirus crisis got off to a bad start. On 21 March, days after telling the nation about isolating, not travelling, and all...
Vol 61 No 7 |
- ANGOLA
- COVID-19
Even without the coronavirus pandemic it was always doubtful that 2020 would be the year Angola would return to growth, as President João Lourenço had promised. After a...
Although the coronavirus pandemic has yet to affect Namibia seriously – as April began there were only 10 confirmed cases and no deaths – President Hage Geingob's government...
One person who may have welcomed the coronavirus was Prime Minster Thomas Thabane, who was in a terminal political crisis when it struck. He had promised to resign...
Madagascar is on few international airline routes, so Covid-19 came late to the island. The authorities were able to impose quarantine on arriving travellers early, even before the...
The pandemic could not have come at a worse time for an ailing economy already stressed to the limit
The collapse of the global financial markets, the tanking oil price, and the threat of a major global economic recession have radically altered the backdrop to South Africa's...
Strategic minerals on the continent will power the electric vehicle revolution and a restructured energy industry
More than any other continent, Africa has copious reserves of the vital minerals central to the transition to sustainable energy in the leading industrial economies.
READ FOR FREE
Vol 61 No 5 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
As the budget aims to cut public sector pay by US$10 billion and sell state assets, trade unions push back on jobs and wages
Threatening huge cuts in public spending but no serious tax hikes, Finance Minister Tito Mboweni's budget of 13 February will unleash further political drama and perhaps trigger a...
An oligarch with ties to an international commodity trader, top politicians and generals is dividing the government
Kudakwashe Tagwirei, managing director of Sakunda Holdings and business associate of President Emmerson Mnangagwa, is at the centre of a new political row. As the global trading company...
Vol 61 No 4 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
With the main opposition party in turmoil, political players old and new are gearing up to form new political movements
The main South African opposition parties are in an unprecedented state of flux after the resignation of two black leaders rocked the Democratic Alliance late last year. Now...
Vol 61 No 4 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Punctuated by protests, the President gave an eloquent statement but he is leaving the heavy lifting to the finance minister
In the first of two last-chance bids by government to forestall a ratings downgrade on the country's credit rating to junk status, President Cyril Ramaphosa failed to convince...
Namibia's Supreme Court in Windhoek may have refused on 5 February to order a rerun of last November's presidential election but opposition political parties are still claiming victory.
Finance Minister Bwalya Ng'andu's January request for a funded programme from the International Monetary Fund may be in danger from continued borrowing beyond the Treasury's control, financial sources...
Botswana has authorised the resumption of licensed elephant hunting, auctioning licences to shoot 60 elephants worth US$2.34 million. It's the first such sale since President Mokgweetsi Masisi rescinded...
Vol 61 No 4 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The President's speech to parliament on 13 February will say more about his fragile coalition of reformers than about the country he governs
For the past three decades each State of the Nation speech has been billed as the most important ever. Most – with the honourable exception of Nelson Mandela's...
The Constitutional Court has nullified the presidential election and re-set the political landscape
The Constitutional Court has ordered a fresh presidential election, saying the Malawi Electoral Commission's (MEC) failure to follow its duties under constitutional and electoral law rendered last year's...
Vol 61 No 3 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Ramaphosa grapples with economic crisis, corruption prosecutions and power shortages on a historic anniversary
The 30th anniversary of then-President FW de Klerk's announcement on 2 February 1990 of the release of Nelson Mandela nine days afterwards passed quietly as investors gathered to...
The campaign to recover loot is popular, and the IMF is supportive, but the numbers are terrible
The pursuit by investigative journalists and Luanda's prosecutors of Isabel dos Santos offers a temporary distraction from the country's economic meltdown. Enthusiasm to see Isabel dos Santos on...
The Lourenço government expands its search for stolen assets, launching an international campaign against the Dos Santos clan
In what is set to be a gargantuan legal battle stretching over many years, the government of President João Lourenço is stepping up action to recover several billion...
Far from consolidating presidential authority, the electoral fraud that brought Frelimo victory may well hurt the President
The working year began with a day of golfing and post-inauguration partying for President Filipe Nyusi, who was sworn into office on 15 January for his second five-year...
A wrecked economy will cause more worry this year but it won’t stop the two leading factions battling for supremacy
As Zimbabwe limps into 2020, its heaviest shackle is the economy. One analyst suggests it will shrink by 12.9% while inflation averages 165.5%. Last February, Minister of Finance...
Africa's paragon of democracy and prudence is finding stability and prosperity increasingly difficult as commodity prices fall
Envied by its peers for its track record of good governance and fiscal prudence, and prized by investors for its low tax regime, Botswana has posted budget deficits...
Vol 61 No 1 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The stage is set for the clash between state prosecutors and Ramaphosa’s ANC enemies. The first trials will open soon
Sympathisers with President Cyril Ramaphosa's project to clean up governance are frustrated with his agonisingly slow strategy. He needs to speed up the suffocation of his opponents within...
READ FOR FREE
Public finances head south while the Patriotic Front clamps down on dissent ahead of next year’s election
The ruling Patriotic Front's continued state of denial about the country's dire debt situation sees the year begin with loan defaults, dwindling state revenues, disintegrating public services and...