Vol 64 No 25 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Opposition realignments and ruling party exits open up the field for next year's election
The resignation of Mavuso Msimang, deputy president of the African National Congress Veterans' League (ANCVL) and a respected lifelong activist, has widened cracks in the ruling party. It...
Vol 64 No 25 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Maputo's lawyers argue that those involved in the maritime schemes should have known how corrupt the country was before they funded them
The London trial over Mozambique's US$2 billion 'hidden loans' nears its end this week as lawyers present their closing arguments. Mozambique sued Credit Suisse bank, along with maritime...
Vol 64 No 25 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A new contender has entered the crowded opposition field with a plan to take on the ruling party in next year's elections
Outgoing chairman of FirstRand Bank, Roger Jardine, has surfaced as the latest contender to lead an alliance of opposition parties against the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in...
Vol 64 No 24 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The presidency has been hit by a wave of resignations as doubts grow about his political survival
Key advisors to President Cyril Ramaphosa have been quitting as signs grow that support for the African National Congress (ANC) will below 50% of the vote in the...
Vol 64 No 24 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Both the ruling African National Congress and the main opposition Democratic Alliance are struggling to navigate a new political era
The latest opinion survey results – by the Social Research Foundation, Ipsos and the Brenthurst Foundation – are unanimous that the African National Congress's (ANC) share of the...
Vol 64 No 24 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The Constitutional Court has re-allocated fraudulently won municipal elections between the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) and the opposition Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (Renamo) in a move...
Vol 64 No 24 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Finance minister turns down bailout request from Transnet whose failings have cost the economy over US$26 billion
Tough decisions and strong political backing are needed to turn around the ailing state-owned transport and logistics company, Transnet which could face a ratings downgrade. Structural and wide-ranging...
Vol 64 No 23 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Ministers are torn between tax hikes and spending cuts in the tightest fiscal crunch for 30 years
After several opinion surveys forecast support for the African National Congress (ANC) dropping below 50% for the first time in next year's national election, the government is struggling...
The ruling party sows discord in the opposition as a rogue activist sacks their MPs
Behind the bizarre shenanigans in which the speaker of parliament endorses the recall of at least 15 opposition MPs at the hands of a man widely believed to...
A €1 billion fund for projects developing 'green' hydrogen and critical raw materials has just been signed off in Brussels by President Hage Geingob and European Commission President...
President Lazarus Chakwera was accused of running away when he left the country on 8 November for Saudi Arabia despite knowing that the kwacha would be devalued by...
Government law officers have been so slow to summon witnesses to appear in trials brought by the Anti-Corruption Bureau that witnesses from Britain's National Crime Agency (NCA) appeared...
Vol 64 No 22 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Live fire from police resulted in several deaths over the 27-29 October weekend during nationwide protests against the decision of the Comissão Nacional de Eleições (CNE) to approve...
Chinese lithium company Xinfeng Investments risks losing its mining licence when a parliamentary committee publishes a report later this year which is expected to criticise operational and labour...
Vol 64 No 21 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Evidence of mass vote-rigging in municipal elections has prompted public anger and infighting in the ruling party
Widespread protests followed ruling party Frente de Libertação de Moçambique's (Frelimo) declaration of a near clean sweep in the 11 October municipal elections, despite evidence from parallel counts...
Another disputed election over, the President's faction of the ruling ZANU-PF wants to change the constitution to give him a third term
Undaunted by regional and international criticisms of the legitimacy of the August elections, the ruling party is continuing its rout of the opposition and abuse of its control...
Vol 64 No 21 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Unless the power utility gets credible leadership and more investment to boost generation and transmission it will continue to hold the economy down
The IMF's latest data forecasts South Africa's economy will grow by 0.9% this year, up from projections in July of 0.6%. The marginal improvement is based on fewer...
Vol 64 No 20 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The increasingly difficult task of servicing growing debt while delivering social development presents President Cyril Ramaphosa with the toughest choices of his presidency. 'It is a balancing act...
Vol 64 No 20 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Bad economic news on almost all fronts complicates the ruling party's campaign to win over voters ahead of next year's elections
As the election campaign gets under way, President Cyril Ramaphosa and the ruling African National Congress confront an increasingly problematic economic legacy. It is sure to undermine the...
Vol 64 No 20 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Maputo won't disclose the cost of its deal with Credit Suisse and why it's abandoned its demand for damages
As with the US$2 billion hidden loans scandal that triggered Mozambique's serial financial crises over the past decade, all sides are trying to keep secret the details of...
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The long-anticipated Fishrot corruption trial of 10 highly placed Namibians accused of multi-million fishing quotas fraud, racketeering and corruption, has been postponed again thanks to delaying tactics. The...
The President put much store into a scheme intended to add value to diamond sales, but the dream seems to be turning sour
The Botswana government's ambitious plan to sell part of its huge rough diamond output have been dealt a hammer blow by the implosion of its selected sales partner,...
Vol 64 No 20 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Delayed by the power crisis and fights with the coal lobby, the government says the green plan will launch at the UN Climate Summit
After two years of turf wars, the government's implementation plan for its US$8.5 billion (R160bn) Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) will be made public at the UN COP28...
An enlarged cabinet stuffed with relatives and loyalists is complicating international efforts to restart negotiations on the country's finances
International and regional concerns persist about the legitimacy of President Emmerson Mnangagwa's victory in national elections last month, particularly the failure of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) to...
Vol 64 No 19 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The President has finally pushed out key Zuma ally Busisiwe Mkhwebane, but the cadre system which protected her is intact
The firing of discredited Public Protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane on 13 September is being lauded by President Cyril Ramaphosa's supporters as a victory in his campaign for zero-tolerance of...
The Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) has decided not to prosecute government officials who may have taken bribes so long as they return them to the state, according to leaks...
Vol 64 No 19 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Beefed up local organisation and a public spending push could help the ruling party avoid a coalition next year
Unheralded, the campaign for next year's national elections started this month. The ruling African National Congress will be fighting on multiple fronts: to cut state spending and rein...
Regional and international critiques of election rigging have undermined ZANU-PF amid calls for a transitional authority to be set up
Regional leaders, like the four million Zimbabweans in exile, voted with their feet when invited to attend Emmerson Mnangagwa's inauguration for his second presidential term on 4 September....
Vol 64 No 18 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The London High Court has ruled that President Filipe Nyusi will not have to respond in court to claims that he helped defraud his own country and accepted...
Bringing in new members and opening up more local currency trade point to a longer-term power shift
It was the biggest international gathering in South Africa since the inauguration of Nelson Mandela as the country's first democratically elected leader in 1994, but the 22-24 August...
With the full panoply of state power behind ZANU-PF and its leader, the elections are unlikely to pass the credibility test
Expectations for the fairness of the presidential and parliamentary elections started low and have sunk further after dirty tricks and orchestrated chaos in the towns and cities as...
Dismissing the data, the ruling party tells voters it is steering the country to prosperity
Treasury and Reserve Bank officials have been releasing a succession of positive economic reports for the past three months. Consumer prices are reckoned to have fallen 15% and...
The ruling party could end the financial isolation if it allows free and credible elections next month steering the country to prosperity
Next month's national elections are the most conseqential since the independence vote in 1980. They will decide both the country's next president and whether it breaks out of...
The ruling party has a new strategy to win next year's polls against the challenge from ex-President Khama and the opposition coalition
The ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has never been the same since President Mokgweetsi Masisi fell out with his mentor, ex-President Ian Khama, who had hand-picked him as...
Gaborone's new diamond deal offers gains to the government and hedges against challenges from new technology
If President Mokgweetsi Masisi has got it right, the new agreement Botswana has struck with its dominant economic partner De Beers – to sell half of its rough...
Former National Budget Director Paul Mphwiyo, whose non-fatal shooting in 2013 blew the lid off the Cashgate scandal of wholesale plunder of the public purse by politicians, is...
President Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF insist they are serious about reform – next month's election will test their claims
The opposition Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), led by Nelson Chamisa, may have marked some sort of record – since its foundation last year, over 100 of its...
We publish exclusive details about Vice-President Chiwenga's 'bagman' and the tortuous flow of cash from mining contracts to military pockets
Lishon Chipango is sometimes called 'de facto investment manager' for Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga – critics of the regime would call him the former army chief's frontman.
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Lusaka's debt-restructuring brokered by France's Emmanuel Macron resonated more than his summit to redraw the global finance system
A deal to restructure US$6.3 billion of Zambia's foreign debt gives President Hakainde Hichilema much of what he was looking for – a resolution after almost two years...
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Vol 64 No 14 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Risks persist of a return to state capture by corrupt businesspeople and politicians, argues the prime mover of the three-year Zondo investigation
On 22 June, a year after he released the conclusions of his marathon investigation into corruption, Chief Justice Raymond Zondo lambasted parliament and the executive for failing to...
President Mokgweetsi Masisi insists his renegotiation of terms with De Beers is a huge victory while others say it was the world's biggest diamond producer that came out...
The government wants free stakes in lithium and other mines producing vital inputs for electric vehicles
President Hage Geingob and his close ally, mines minister Tom Alweendo, have signalled their seriousness about obtaining the maximum benefit of minerals used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries...
Growing anger over government corruption and surging unemployment look set to give opposition parties their best chance yet of loosening the ruling SWAPO Party's grip on the country....
After days of awkward and unproductive diplomacy, the economic consequences of the war will worsen for Africa – starting with the collapse of the grain deal
The African peace mission to Ukraine and Russia has exposed the chasm between the two countries – with Kyiv insisting on Russian withdrawal from its territory and Moscow...
Vol 64 No 13 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Corporate chiefs are going public on their fears about the economic slide and social chaos
After months of intense preparation, the two leading business umbrella groups – Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) and Business for South Africa (B4SA) – launched a major initiative...
Accusations of secret arms shipments to Moscow raise questions about Pretoria's non-alignment and its competence on security
Long-simmering tensions exploded when United States ambassador Reuben Brigety broke with diplomatic discretion last month and accused South Africa of secretly uploading weapons and ammunition for Russia's war...
The imprisonment of two MPs on terrorism charges is a signal that royal power will not be compromised or reformed, and elections due this year won't change anything,...
So dire is the record of the incumbent that the opposition believes Peter Mutharika could be elected president again in 2025
The political situation is in such turmoil that the next contest to lead Malawi is already dominating talk in the capital. Ex-President Peter Mutharika is planning a comeback,...
Opaque and unbudgeted state spending is rising as officials get closer to Belarus and Russia
The latest row over patronage and opaque procurement in the government shows the widening rift between President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his deputy General Constantino Chiwenga, and their attempts...
Vol 64 No 11 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Having failed to persuade parliament to allow him to stand for a third term, President Filipe Nyusi is bent on consolidating his position by securing a landslide for...
Politically-connected middlemen taking key roles in oil licencing raise concerns over corruption in the coming hydrocarbons bonanza
Namibia looks set to add oil to its cornucopia of mineral resources, including gem diamonds, uranium, and lithium, with the potential to become a major exporter by 2026....
At every level and in every institution, the ruling party is sidelining and attacking the opposition
With less than three months before national elections are due, there are multiple signs of abuses of state power by the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF)...
Vol 64 No 10 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
President Filipe Nyusi's ambition to cancel the two-term presidential limit and stand in next year's general election has finally died, according to insiders in Maputo.
Vol 64 No 10 |
- NAMIBIA
- MINING
President Geingob's government is benefitting from international rivalry to boost lithium production
Prices and demand for Africa's reserves of lithium, a key component in rechargeable batteries, are soaring as the world car industry shifts towards producing electric vehicles with the...
Vol 64 No 9 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A new player steps on to the stage vowing to disrupt the status quo ahead of elections next year
Rise Mzansi, the brainchild of Songezo Zibi and allies, was launched with some grandeur on Johannesburg's Constitution Hill – home to the Constitutional Court and a symbol of...
Citing resource control, the President is joining with a Belgian start-up diamond trader to challenge the De Beers empire
After 54 years in mining diamonds and 10 years in trading them, Botswana is moving downstream in the business by taking a 24% stake in Belgium's HB Antwerp,...
Vol 64 No 8 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Light on policy, the biggest opposition party will have to work harder to beat the African National Congress
Just three days after John Steenhuisen, newly re-elected leader of the opposition Democratic Alliance, announced a 'moonshot pact' with other parties ahead of the 2024 elections, the DA...
For a government so quick to accuse its opponents of malfeasance and detain them, President Emmerson Mnangagwa's team has been curiously reticent about the investigation into gold smuggling...
Vol 64 No 7 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
After four years of balancing factions in the ruling ANC, the President is concentrating power in his office
It was a more upbeat and energised Cyril Ramaphosa that took on critics this month complaining that he consulted too much and took too long to make decisions....
Zimbabwean officials were keen to play up their mutual 'outsider' status in the international community as the delegation headed by Foreign Minister Frederick Shava took in meetings with...
Ahead of next year's elections, officials say they want to boost accountability and the nation's stake in mining
After five years of negotiations over revenues and production at the world's biggest diamond mine, Botswana's President Mokgweetsi Masisi and the De Beers conglomerate are at loggerheads....
Vol 64 No 6 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The President's reshuffle prioritises next year's elections instead of addressing the economy, infrastructure and electricity emergency
After serial delays and great expectations, President Cyril Ramaphosa brought in 10 new ministers for his reshuffle on 6 March with a wary eye on next year's general...
Vol 64 No 6 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A law forcing political parties to disclose their funding has cast light on cash from three local billionaires and a Russian oligarch
With national elections due to be held next year, concerns are brewing over whether donations could be used to buy influence. Africa Confidential's analysis of declarations by South...
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The London High Court judge presiding over the civil case brought by Mozambique against Credit Suisse bank and the naval contractor Privinvest in January 2020 says that he...
Vol 64 No 5 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
President Ramaphosa is using party committees to consolidate his grip ahead of national elections next year
South Africans, still buckling under the strain of crippling daily power cuts with no end in sight, are waiting for the appointment of a Minister of Electricity, announced...
The government has banned exports of the mineral and set up its own lucrative deal via a military-linked company to sell to China
With global demand for lithium soaring – prices went up more than 100% in 2022 and are expected to keep rising – Zimbabwe could be poised for a...
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Vol 64 No 5 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The budget's debt relief for Eskom will impose targets and hasten privatisation but offers no short-term relief from power cuts
The explosive television interview by André de Ruyter, outgoing chief executive of ailing electricity utility Eskom on 21 February, which upstaged Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's budget on the...
Rights activists, opposition politicians – and even factions within ZANU-PF – lambast the latest redrawing of electoral boundaries
The redrawing of electoral boundaries is due to be gazetted into law by 26 February despite politicians and rights groups questioning its fairness and the accuracy of the...
Zimbabwe failed to invest in a key trade link over the Zambezi and now that truckers are using it to avoid the country altogether, Harare wants back in
Botswana's President Mokgweetsi Masisi is happy to call himself one of Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa few friends abroad. Masisi has been outspoken in calling for western sanctions on...
President Mokgweetsi Masisi's supporters in his bitter struggle with former mentor and predecessor Ian Khama are congratulating themselves following a court ruling that has neutered Khama's plans to...
Vol 64 No 4 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Parliament debates the President's latest plan amid bid to block emergency regulations in court
Tough questions have greeted President Cyril Ramaphosa's latest efforts to tackle the chronic electricity shortages – declaring a state of national disaster and appointing a minister of electricity...
Law officers are determined to obstruct fraudbuster Martha Chizuma's investigations as foreign envoys sound a warning
The government has launched a war of attrition against the courts as it tries to stop Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) Director-General Martha Chizuma from investigating top politicians and their...
Vol 64 No 4 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The coming cabinet changes will show whether the President is ready to use his new political authority
After spending his first term fending off a rebellion from supporters of ousted President Jacob Zuma, President Cyril Ramaphosa should now be able to sack all those ministers...
Vol 64 No 4 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
From civic organiser in the Alexandra township to the heights of the ruling party, the country's new Deputy President is one of its canniest politicians
In spite of some last minute ructions it looks a matter of time before Paul Mashatile, who outsmarted the Cyril Ramaphosa and Zweli Mkhize camps at the African...
Vol 64 No 3 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
With rolling power cuts obliterating support for the ANC, the government is being pushed to act against vested interests
After four days of deliberations, on 29 January the ruling African National Congress agreed in principle to declare a national disaster in response to rolling power cuts which...
King Mswati III remains deaf to pleas for reform despite growing pressure on him in the wake of the assassination of democracy activist and human rights lawyer Thulani...
An emboldened opposition and internal dissent point to hard months ahead for the President
President João Lourenço came out of last August's elections doubly weakened – by the opposition, which made historic gains despite the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola...
Isabel dos Santos is planning to take the PR fight to her late father's successor, Angolan President João Lourenço, by hiring K-Street lobbyists with close links to former...
Belts are tightening and scepticism is growing about the government's ability to fulfil its election pledges
At the present rate of progress President Hakainde Hichilema and his United Party for National Development (UPND) – elected in a landslide by voters fed up with six...
President Nyusi's bid for a third term of office will probably fail despite his well-funded campaign to persuade Frelimo to change the constitution
President Filipe Nyusi will use every means at his disposal, including taking credit for the likely resumption of the offshore gas projects this year, to change the constitution...
A weakened President and the deepening electricity crisis will slow reform and increase the prospects of coalition government in 2024
The coming year is likely to see further loosening of President Cyril Ramaphosa's grip on his divided ruling party and reduce his ability to progress economic reforms.
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Elections will take place in six months but whatever happens, ZANU-PF will prevail, as the slide into economic mayhem continues
Pre-election buzz will energise discussions about Zimbabwe's future ahead of general elections set to be held in July or August. But any sense of optimism will be short-lived...