Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, the ruling party’s first female presidential candidate, now has to deliver on her jobs promise
SWAPO retained power in the presidential and legislative elections last month although on a smaller vote share than in 2019 amid claims by the opposition of skulduggery in...
The British government has vetoed the re-admission of Zimbabwe to the Commonwealth, Africa Minister Lord Ray Collins confirmed in a written answer to a question about Zimbabwe’s readmission...
Lovemore Matuke, who led Mnangagwa’s campaign for a third term, is the new spy chief and security coordinator
Facing challenges to his authority from the army, which installed him in 2017 and his campaign for a third term in disarray, President Emmerson Mnangagwa appointed Lovemore Matuke,...
The UK won’t support Zimbabwe’s readmission to the Commonwealth, we hear, although it could threaten its charm offensive on the continent
Commonwealth Secretary-General Baroness Patricia Scotland’s plan to re-admit Zimbabwe has run into resistance from Britain’s Labour government, diplomatic sources have told Africa Confidential. It was felt that taking...
With demonstrators marching again in Luanda, the MPLA government may start taking more risks
When US President Joe Biden arrives in Angola on 2 December, he will be able to compare succession notes with his counterpart João Lourenço. After pushing some ground-breaking...
Vol 65 No 24 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Like his populist counterpart across the Atlantic, South Africa’s much prosecuted leader keeps bouncing back
Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party is shaping the landscape as it gears up for its first anniversary on 16 December, its ranks bolstered by several high-profile defectors...
With incumbents out of favour in the region, the outcome of the elections is on a knife-edge
Vice-President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah (known as NNN) was swimming against the regional tide as she campaigned to become Namibia’s first female head of state in the parliamentary and presidential...
Rebooting economic growth and and cutting unemployment are the new President’s priorities
The pace of the political transition in Botswana matches the urgency of the new government’s agenda: to stabilise an economy in free fall with youth unemployment hitting 38%....
Seven years after the coup, Mnangagwa’s manoeuverings to stay in power are angering Chiwenga and other generals
The most significant constraint on President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa’s plan to extend his rule is the military. Senior officers know that just as they launched him into power...
Vol 65 No 23 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Opposition firebrand Mondlane is staking everything on his calls for mass protests in the capital on 7 November
Mozambique’s economy is grinding to a halt amid nationwide protests, following its disputed election on 9 October. Many in the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) party...
Vol 65 No 22 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Presidential contender Mondlane’s supporters are preparing to confront Frelimo on the streets
The call by Lúcia da Luz Ribeiro, President of the Constitutional Council, for the Comissão Nacional de Eleições (CNE) to produce the results sheets (editais) from every polling...
A politician and part-time pastor, Podemos leader Venâncio Mondlane has dragged Mozambique to the brink of ending nearly 50 years of single-party rule by Frelimo.
Top Commonwealth officials and senior British diplomats favour bringing Harare back into the fold – despite a damning report on last year’s elections
The Commonwealth Secretariat is working to support Zimbabwe’s application to be readmitted to the mainly Anglophone, ex-British colonial group of nations, Africa Confidential has learned. The outgoing Secretary-General,...
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Running for a second term, President Masisi is helped by opposition splits but his economic plans lack credibility
Against a backdrop of rising youth unemployment and tumbling diamond revenues, Botswana’s elections on 30 October are set to be among its most closely fought since independence in...
The furore over Mozambique’s national elections this month may complicate Rwanda’s military role in the northern Cabo Delgado province
Rwanda’s military, invited by President Filipe Nyusi to push back insurgents and guard the gas export plant in Cabo Delgado, is expanding its security operations and business interests...
Vol 65 No 22 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Positions are hardening after two opposition lawyers are assassinated and the ruling party dismisses complaints about the elections
Opposition presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane is calling for a two-day national strike to bring the economy to a standstill as protests escalate in the wake of the disputed...
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Corruption, over-spending and government borrowing from the central bank are undermining the sixth attempt at a local currency
Mass scepticism greeted Reserve Bank Governor John Mushayavanhu’s assertion on 11 October that last month’s 43% devaluation of the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency was a 'once-off' event and...
Vol 65 No 21 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Independent monitors and all the opposition parties question the credibility of the presidential and parliamentary elections
The state-backed Comissão Nacional de Eleições (CNE) has released results from each province, indicating a strong win for the ruling party Frelimo. It has until 25 October to...
Vol 65 No 21 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Railing against joblessness and hardship, young voters deserted Frelimo and long-time opposition Renamo
Ruling party Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) and leading opposition politician Venâncio Mondlane, an independent who ran on the ticket of the tiny Partido Otimista pelo Desinvolvimento...
Vol 65 No 21 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
After 50 years in power, Frelimo’s right to rule is on the ballot and national politics will see a generational change
On 9 October, ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) faces its toughest election since multi-party politics started in 1994. A wild card quasi-independent candidate has shaken up...
Vol 65 No 19 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The new national organiser, who defected from the EFF, is expected to develop clearer policies for the struggling party
Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party has wasted no time in getting its policy tsar to work, laying on motorcades around the provinces with local MK leaders, political...
Many of Vice-President Saulos Chilima’s supporters have blamed President Lazarus Chakwera for the crash that claimed the lives of Chilima and eight others in a Malawi Defence Forces...
Next year’s election will see two previous presidents take on an incumbent still struggling to make his mark amid a sea of scandal and a tanking economy
In less than a year, Malawians go to the polls for the eighth time since the return of multi-party elections in 1994 but this time, the choice is...
President Lourenço courts investors in France, China and the US, to reverse energy sector decline
The Angolan government’s tactics to boost oil and gas investment – cutting production taxes, wooing the biggest conglomerates and quitting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)...
The flurry of new client activity continues for Ari Ben-Menashe, the Israeli former spy and arms dealer turned political lobbyist. Ben-Menashe, who has taken on Kenya’s former Interior...
The country’s largest independent brokerage says the government should restore the trust of its citizens instead of forcing them to abandon the dollar
It has been four months since the introduction of the ‘Zimbabwe Gold’ or ZiG on 8 April and confidence in the currency has not improved. The official exchange...
Rights groups outraged as SADC hands its chair to Mnangagwa after security agents arrest and beat up over 100 activists
Such was the ferocity of the government’s assault on civil society activists and oppositionists ahead of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit in Harare on 17 August,...
Vol 65 No 16 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The coalition of opposition parties has lost some members to Ramaphosa’s Government of National Unity while another is embroiled in the VBS scandal
When the United Democratic Movement’s Bantu Holomisa and Economic Freedom Fighters’ Julius Malema called a press conference on the morning of 14 June at the Cape Town Convention...
Vol 65 No 16 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
London’s High Court has awarded Mozambique over US$825 million and more than $1.5 billion in indemnity for payments relating to the country’s $2bn of state-guaranteed hidden loans, which...
Critics say politically-connected business people are suborning senior officials at the Anti-Corruption Commission
Angered by a raft of allegations against senior officials, President Hakainde Hichilema has dissolved the board of the country’s Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC). It follows the resignation on 16...
Vol 65 No 15 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The key test for the Government of National Unity is whether it can mobilise the billions needed to revive growth and cut unemployment
The excitement in the markets over the launch of the Government of National Unity (GNU) has to be balanced against the enormity of the challenges confronting the leaders...
Claims that the Mutapa Investment Fund paid US$1.6bn to presidential ally Tagwirei highlight risks of grand corruption
Shortly after his victory in last year’s disputed elections, President Emmerson Mnangagwa reconstituted the country’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, bringing 66 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) under the control of his...
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With 80% of business still priced in US dollars, many are sceptical of the latest monetary plan
Dropped into its sobering assessment of Zimbabwe’s economic prospects the IMF Article IV review team offered some qualified support for the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency on 28 June:...
The lessons of Kenya’s crisis loom large as Luanda officials search for a way to cut repayment demands
Angola is Africa’s second-biggest oil producer but is facing what is arguably the continent’s worst debt crisis. Unlike fellow heavily indebted economies in Ghana and Zambia, the way...
Fear of popular protest deters the government from cutting fuel subsidies and privatising state assets
Midway into his second term, President João Lourenço has spent more time trying to consolidate his grip on the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA) than...
Vol 65 No 14 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Mozambique has reached a US$220 million out-of-court settlement with three more creditors in its $2 billion hidden loans case, which was heard last year in London’s High Court....
Vol 65 No 13 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
President Ramaphosa’s Government of National Unity has months rather than years to regenerate jobs and hope
South Africa’s transition into coalition country politics – its most important shift since the liberation election of 1994 – happened so fast that most of the players were...
Most believe that the end of Martha Chizuma’s term of office effectively means the death of government prosecution of bribery
Many Malawians feel the book has now closed on the campaign by the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) director Martha Chizuma to bring dozens of Malawian and foreign businesspeople and...
Vol 65 No 13 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Cyril Ramaphosa will lead a Government of National Unity with the centre-right but excludes two populist parties with 25% of the vote
The Government of National Unity deal is a return to form for Cyril Ramaphosa who helped negotiate the first post-apartheid coalition government 30 years ago. The difference this...
Vol 65 No 12 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Shorn of a majority, Cyril Ramaphosa must choose between populists or pro-business centrists in a power-sharing deal
After its worst election in 30 years of power, the African National Congress (ANC) saw its vote share tumble to 40.2% and faces choices which will usher in...
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Self-proclaimed leader Tshabangu takes over the opposition in parliament and backs plan to extend Mnangagwa’s presidential term
On 30 May, the Speaker of Parliament, Jacob Mudenda, appointed Sengezo Tshabangu as Leader of the Opposition, in what many are calling the end of opposition politics in...
Finance Minister Musokotwane cuts growth forecasts as worst dry spell in four decades and a weaker kwacha drive up the cost of living
Making significant progress towards restructuring its debts, three-and-a-half years after defaulting on its Eurobonds, Africa’s second-largest copper producer is struggling to contain the fallout from severe droughts, continued...
After three-and-a-half years of talks and geopolitical clashes, officials in Lusaka foresee a comprehensive debt restructuring within months
At last an end is in sight for Zambia’s tortuous negotiations to restructure US$13.4 billion in foreign loans, after international bondholders met on 4 June to approve the...
President Emmerson Mnangagwa has rewarded some familiar faces after approving the licensing of tech billionaire Elon Musk’s Starlink system in Zimbabwe ‘through its sole and exclusive local partner,...
The Botswana government may be clearing the way to bid for part of Anglo American’s 85% holding in De Beers, which the London-based mining conglomerate plans to divest...
Vol 65 No 12 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The centre-right Democratic Alliance has controlled the province since 2009 but is facing pushback from smaller parties in its political base
Early reports of a high turnout across the country on 29 May have boosted the ruling African National Congress's hopes that it might retain its national parliamentary majority...
Vol 65 No 12 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
With $50 billion on the table, the biggest mining deal in history faces a wall of corporate and political obstacles
Given the stakes in jobs and economic growth, it's fitting that the deadline for the offer by Australia's BHP for Anglo American should fall on 29 May, election...
Vol 65 No 11 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Fearing a populist wave from the Malema and Zuma parties, the ANC is sending its veteran leaders to get out the vote for 29 May
So serious is the prospect of it losing badly in the 29 May election that the ruling African National Congress has leant on its former leaders, including those...
Vol 65 No 11 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The ruling party has elected its most junior leader ever – in an apparent snub to the outgoing President
After the surprise selection of Governor of Inhambane province Daniel Chapo as the ruling Frente de Libertacao de Mocambique's presidential candidate for October's general election, debate continues as...
Vol 65 No 11 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The plethora of international military forces in Cabo Delgado province is about to shrink. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) contingent of over 2,200 soldiers, which was tasked...
Vol 65 No 11 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The biggest threat to the ANC's electoral base comes from its two breakaway populist parties
For realists in the African National Congress the central question in the 29 May elections is how the party manages the end of its 30-year domination of national...
Vol 65 No 10 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Opinion surveys struggle to keep up with the changing shape of this intensely contested election
Activists and politicians across the spectrum agree on one point: opinion surveys in South Africa are often wide of the mark, undermined by poor methodology, and sometimes institutional...
Geingob's death and a row over the German genocide make for an awkward transition in this year's polls against a strong opposition
The lavish and lengthy obsequies for President Hage Geingob, who died aged 82 on 4 February, turned out to be just an interlude in the drama on whether...
The corruption case against Malawi's Vice-President Saulos Chilima has been abandoned on the order of President Lazarus Chakwera. Chilima was arrested in November 2022 over allegations that he...
Vol 65 No 10 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) party has finally chosen its presidential candidate for October's general election. In a process which saw the party's politburo wait...
Vol 65 No 9 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
With the ex-president as a figurehead, the uMkhonto we Sizwe party threatens the ruling party’s national prospects
The complex arithmetic between provincial and national votes means that former President Jacob Zuma's new party could wreck the ruling African National Congress's (ANC) chances of scraping a...
The United States government has slapped a visa ban on four former senior Malawi government officials, including the former Head of the Malawi Police Service, George Kainja, over...
More focused US sanctions against ZANU-PF leaders will still deter investors – along with the regime's bad policies
On the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington on 19 April, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said he had asked United States Treasury officials to...
Mounting doubts on the credibility of the latest currency relaunch and politicisation of economic policy
The chances of Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube and new Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) governor John Mushayavanhu making progress in talks for a staff-monitored IMF programme in Washington...
Vol 65 No 8 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
South African and African National Congress (ANC) President Cyril Ramaphosa has proposed to the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) that it consider going into opposition if it fails to secure a majority in the elections in May, instead of forming coalitions, political sources told Africa Confidential.
South African and African National Congress (ANC) President Cyril Ramaphosa has proposed to the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) that it consider going into opposition if it fails...
Zambia has finally reached an agreement to restructure its US$3 billion of Eurobonds after more than three years in default, the government announced on 25 March. The three...
Vol 65 No 6 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Businesses and wealthy individuals are stepping up political donations and their influence on policy
Ahead of the most competitive election ever in South Africa on 29 May, local and foreign political donors are trying to influence the outcome within – and sometimes...
Bad management and lack of accountability – not the lack of new finds – have held back the mining business
After its two year-long attempt to restructure US$4 billion in dollar bonds fell apart last November, President Hakainde Hichilema's government has been turning to its mining industry to...
Vol 65 No 6 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The tussle over the vote schedule is part of a wider battle for the presidential succession
Fresh tensions have blown up within the ruling party after Deputy President Paul Mashatile appeared to pre-empt President Cyril Ramaphosa on the timing of the elections. The two...
Vol 65 No 5 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The ANC government is struggling to raise revenue and fund vote-winning social programmes ahead of elections in May
Sustained low growth is haunting the policy calculations of Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, who presented his budget to parliament on 21 February. He conceded that revised 2023 GDP...
Iskandar Safa, the Franco-Lebanese entrepreneur at the centre of the US$2 billion 'hidden loans' scandal that impoverished Mozambique and drew top state officials and Frente de Libertação de...
The army went ahead with a major arms purchase even after the government cancelled it and said all deals with Zuneth Sattar were over
The government is in turmoil after its claims that all deals with the businessman Zuneth Sattar, who is accused of bribing dozens of top Malawian officials and politicians,...
Vol 65 No 4 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The multi-sided battle for votes in the province may decide the national election – and whether the ANC loses its parliamentary majority
More than 300 registered political parties are vying for votes believing this election will mark a turning point in the country's history and pave the way for coalition...
The main opposition party has been rocked by the resignation of its leader, who accuses ZANU-PF of political violence and sabotage
The Citizens' Coalition for Change (CCC), the only opposition party that presented any realistic threat to the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU PF), is...
South Africa has boosted its own and the developing world's prestige by bringing its genocide case against Israel to The Hague
The ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that Israel must take steps to prevent genocide in Gaza will increase pressure on the United States and the...
We hear that President Cyril Ramaphosa wants to bring forward the national and provincial elections to capitalise on the popularity of the country's case against Israel at the...
Ramaphosa is reaping political dividends by taking on the Netanyahu government at the Hague
Whether South Africa has made a plausible case to prove Israel has violated the genocide convention with its bombardment of Gaza is likely to be decided at the...
Backroom machinations have landed Morocco the coveted chair of the UN’s leading human rights body
Elections to the presidency of the 47-member UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) are normally a routine affair. But this year, Israel and Morocco's concerns that the issues of...
With forecasts that it will win under 50% of the vote in this year's elections, the ruling party prepares for a sea-change
The African National Congress (ANC) will be gravely weakened in this year's national and provincial elections with its share of the vote likely to fall below 50%, but...
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The massive fraud in the local elections looks like a dress rehearsal for Frelimo fixing the result of the presidential contest in October
All eyes are on the October general election, which will produce no surprises. Having practised the fraud in the municipal polls of October 2023, the ruling Frente de...
Election promises remain unfulfilled, and unresolved big issues like debt and mining policy raise questions about ruling party competence
Despite surging into government on a wave of popular relief at the departure of President Edgar Lungu's haphazard, venal government in August 2021, Zambians still await, with dwindling...
Vol 65 No 1 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Former President's vow not to vote for the ANC will damage the party in KwaZulu-Natal and may encourage other high-profile dissenters
President Cyril Ramaphosa's pre-election headaches intensified with the news that Jacob Zuma, the convicted former President, is promising to vote for a new political party named after the...
Vol 65 No 1 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Our correspondent has been given a sneak preview of the ruling party's campaign strategy. It is brutally populist and divisive but it might just work
Undeterred by the confident assessments in multiple opinion surveys that its share of the national vote will fall below 50% in next year's elections for the first time,...