Vol 62 No 25 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Without an agreement on finance, debts and skilled labour, Eskom could break down beyond the point of no return
The state of the national electricity grid is reaching breaking point, that is the risk of a total power shut down caused by a systemic failure of generating...
Vol 62 No 25 |
- MADAGASCAR
Drought and water mismanagement are pushing the country into famine. But with no serious opposition, Rajoelina reigns on
The rains are late in Madagascar – again. While over 750,000 people in the south of the island face severe hunger after three consecutive years of drought, the...
A popular comedian is ridiculing the head of state as he tries to counter popular discontent with a wave of anti-corruption arrests
Sixteen months after garnering an impressive electoral mandate, President Lazarus Chakwera is on the back foot, anxiously deflecting accusations that his administration is incompetent and corrupt. Complaints about...
After eight years of delay in probing the theft of $32m by public officials, prospects for closure under the new government are as dim as ever
When Finance Ministry budget director Paul Mphwiyo unexpectedly survived being shot in the head and left for dead eight years ago, blowing apart the heist of US$32 million...
Vol 62 No 24 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
South Africa cannot make up its mind what to do with former Mozambican Finance Minister Manuel Chang, in jail for nearly three years since his arrest in December...
Vol 62 No 24 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Power is ebbing away from the ruling ANC but opposition parties lack the numbers to form stable alliances
Intra-party rivalries will reach new heights in the run-up to the African National Congress's (ANC) elective conference in December next year as the allies of former President Jacob...
The old government sold future copper output to Trafigura for a $40 million advance. The new government wants to know where it is
One of President Hakainde Hichilema's toughest challenges is the raft of complex and costly legal battles over mining assets bequeathed by the Patriotic Front (PF) government, which was...
Dissidents opposing Mnangagwa’s plans for a second term are starting to organise in the ruling party
As it launched its heavily choreographed Annual National People's Conference on 29-30 October in Bindura, the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) was trying to dampen down...
Vol 62 No 23 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Following heavy losses in local government elections, the ANC's factions are blaming each other and arguing over coalition partners
The ruling African National Congress (ANC) has entered uncharted territory after losing its majority in 70 councils across the country including the five metropolitan councils in major cities....
Africa's last absolute monarchy teeters as activists step up protests and demand action from South Africa
What started as a student protest against police brutality has morphed into a full-scale crisis with King Mswati III's army killing between 80-100 civilians in clashes with demonstrators....
Vol 62 No 22 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The US authorities have fined the two foreign banks in the tuna bond scam. Now Maputo's politicians are in the frame in court
Five years after Mozambique's economy sank into a quagmire of bad debt, Credit Suisse faces at least US$747 million of penalties for its part in the country's $2...
Vol 62 No 22 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The President's campaign to hasten phasing out coal in return for green finance has set up a clash with his Energy Minister
Cyril Ramaphosa has called on developed economies to help fund the energy transition in developing economies, as South Africa's struggle to wean itself off coal sets him against...
Vol 62 No 22 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Losing ground to new parties and independents, the two biggest parties are forced into coalition talks as political landscape changes
The African National Congress's (ANC) share of the national vote fell to 46% in the local elections with almost all the ballots counted by the evening of 3...
Security agents raided the homes of former President Ian Khama on 23-25 October in search of unlicensed weapons and arrested his ally, former spy chief Isaac Kgosi, as...
Vol 62 No 21 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
An ailing economy, internal rivalries and Covid restrictions could see the ANC's vote fall below 50% at the municipal elections
For President Cyril Ramaphosa, the local elections on 1 November will be a referendum on his reforms and a sign of his party support a year before he...
Vol 62 No 21 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The Deputy President’s plans for another term highlight tensions in the ANC as factions jockey for position
The country's rarely seen Deputy President, David Mabuza, was sharply reprimanded by the governing African National Congress when he casually threw his hat into the ring for re-election...
The new president is sending all the right signals but needs to move fast to avoid disappointing voters and investors
President Hakainde Hichilema's record of early appointments and dismissals shows he is making good on his promise of a new start for governance and the economy, Lusaka pundits...
The High Court curbs ministerial powers to enforce black empowerment targets as companies pledge to boost investment
A landmark High Court ruling curtailing ministerial powers on mine ownership is set to end three years of policy uncertainty. Looking at growing production across the continent, South...
Vol 62 No 20 |
- BOTSWANA
- NAMIBIA
Botswana has formally registered an inquest through the courts to investigate the shootings of three Namibians and a Zambian by its army along a river border with Namibia...
Vol 62 No 19 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The province is the only opposition stronghold. The ANC shows no sign of making inroads in the coming local elections
The Western Cape is the only province in the country on which the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) has secured a solid grip – one that the African National...
Vol 62 No 19 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The trial of 19 state officials and ruling party members accused of corruptly benefiting from the US$2 billion hidden loans scandal continues to grip the country and embarrass...
The assassination of the exiled Rwandan businessman Revocant Karemangingo in a hail of bullets in Maputo on 13 September has shocked the country and prompted strong international protests....
Vol 62 No 18 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Cyril Ramaphosa's popularity is growing as the ruling party sinks deeper into infighting, bankruptcy and paralysis
President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned the African National Congress that a judicial commission headed by Acting Chief Justice Raymond Zondo – which enjoys the support of the President...
Vol 62 No 18 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
A live stream of the court hearings on the $2 billion hidden loans scandal yields drama and spotlights a distinctly uncomfortable President Nyusi
The criminal trial in Maputo of many of the state and ruling party officials accused of involvement in the creation and theft of part of the US$2 billion...
The row between the present and former president shows no sign of abating as they clash over Covid-19 vaccines
A charitable foundation linked to ex-President Ian Khama claimed on 9 August it had secured 4 million doses of the Pfizer and Astra-Zeneca Covid-19 vaccines and was offering...
The new president supports her security establishment’s policies on the Mozambican insurgency as well as harsh repression of the civil opposition
Although it is the neighbouring country most affected by the Islamist insurgency in Mozambique's northern province of Cabo Delgado, Tanzania's response to the conflict is the most misunderstood....
After a year in office the head of state is losing the faith of the public as allies, friends, relations and ministers generate scandal
President Lazarus Chakwera has had a torrid month. He sacked Chikosa Silungwe, the Attorney-General, on 2 August, and two of his most senior aides were arrested by the...
The new President has drawn a line under his bitter history with Edgar Lungu, but the profiteers of the last six years can expect to be held to account
President Hakainde Hichilema's inauguration on 24 August ended the tense period that followed polling day on 12 August, when it looked as though his predecessor, Edgar Lungu, might...
Electricity supply is on the front line of the economic policy struggle as power cuts rise, investment sources shrink and a low-carbon future looms
How to supply electricity in the long and short term is possibly the most pressing of all South Africa's economic problems and a locus of conflict between statist...
Vol 62 No 17 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The President has used the fall-out from the failed insurrection to boost his control over the ruling party, boosting his chances of a second term
It was no ordinary cabinet reshuffle that South Africa's President pulled off on 5 August in the wake of seven fateful days of rioting that left over 300...
Vol 62 No 17 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
The long–awaited trial of 19 defendants on charges including abuse of public office, embezzlement and money laundering related to the US$2 billion hidden loans scandal has finally begun....
Voter suppression and fraud allegations are vital issues in the final stretch of the campaign
The ruling Patriotic Front is making a final push for votes ahead of the 12 August general election although many of the party's loyalists fear a surge in...
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Vol 62 No 16 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The security services are in the dock for failing to prevent or warn of the conspiracy behind the acts that touched off the recent murderous unrest
The government is taking a hard look at its own intelligence and security leaders in the aftermath of the orchestrated campaign of sabotage and protests which morphed into...
Vol 62 No 16 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
As the national political and commercial powerhouse, Gauteng is one of the most contested provinces in the country
Gauteng is South Africa's smallest but most densely populated and richest province, covering 1.5% of the country's land mass, with an estimated population in excess of 15 million...
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Two Zambian-flagged merchant ships suspected of shipping weapons to Libya have been stopped in the Mediterranean by European Union naval vessels enforcing the United Nations arms embargo, according...
Ahead of the 12 August vote the ruling party offers handouts and grand projects while the opposition points to the crashing economy
Against a backdrop of falling support for President Edgar Lungu and a sliding economy, the Patriotic Front government is showering farmers and civil servants with handouts and good...
Vol 62 No 15 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Our correspondents look at the leading politicians and their parties in the country’s most volatile and second most populous province
The African National Congress is dominant in KwaZulu-Natal, with 44 seats in the 80-seat provincial legislature, while its nearest rival, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) has just 13....
Vol 62 No 15 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Recovery from the violence, looting and sabotage is likely to be slow amid spiralling joblessness and with the ringleaders apparently still at large
A confluence of widespread economic despair, hunger and protest sparked by the jailing of former South African President Jacob Zuma, began with a deliberate act of sabotage. On...
Opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema is investing hope and major resources, including a phone app and satellite systems, to mobilise over 20,000 election agents from his United Party for...
While 1,000 Rwandan police and troops, widely admired for their military qualities, have arrived on the Afungi peninsula to defend the liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure against Cabo...
Vol 62 No 14 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
After organising a mass rally to back his defiance of the Constitutional Court, ex-president Zuma was arrested on 7 July
At the stroke of midnight and after hours of negotiating with senior officers, ex-President Jacob Zuma handed himself over to police on 7 July. He now starts a...
As reports and videos circulate showing dozens of pro-democracy protestors being shot and killed by security forces, regional and international pressure on King Mswati III is mounting. Veteran...
Political violence, Lungu's ill-health, rows about Kaunda's burial, and rampant Covid make for a grim backdrop ahead of the general election
Exceptional levels of violence – by ruling Patriotic Front thugs and police – are raising questions about the credibility of the parliamentary, municipal and presidential elections due on...
Vol 62 No 13 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The President speeds up reform on power, the state airlines and the ports but laments that the tempo remains far too slow
With two quick-fire announcements on 11 and 12 June, President Cyril Ramaphosa broke with ruling party orthodoxy and threw a lifeline to the ailing power industry and state...
Under US sanctions and losing favour with President Mnangagwa, top businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei is revamping his empire
Zimbabwe's most controversial businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei has shut down his fuel company, Sakunda Holdings, which was put under United States sanctions in August last year for having 'harmed...
A fight over another round of farm confiscations is heading for the courts; but this time prominent black dissident is the target. Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) co-deputy Director-General...
President Mnangagwa is backing a new oil company against a fuel cartel run by the generals' favourite businessman
A company registered in the United Kingdom with strong South African links has signed an agreement that could give it dominance over Zimbabwe's more than US$1 billion fuel...
Berlin's belated offer of compensation for colonial atrocities won’t end the matter and is proving politically divisive
Germany has finally acknowledged that its colonial forces committed genocide against the Ovaherero and Nama and agreed to pay compensation, but these communities of central-eastern and southern Namibia...
As defaults continue and debts pile up, the President reckons his bonanza payment to farmers will win him re-election in August
Just before the start of the three-month election campaign on 12 May, the Patriotic Front (PF) government rushed through at least US$145 million of new loans to fund...
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Vol 62 No 12 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Three years of testimony on a decade of political and corporate crime are to be followed by a wave of prosecutions
Few countries have had more thoroughgoing probes of their business and political classes but a bigger test is coming next. Can the governing African National Congress shut...
Canada's Reconnaissance Energy Africa (ReconAfrica) is convinced it has hit paydirt in the Kavango basin of north-eastern Namibia/north-western Botswana, which extends under part of the watershed of the...
Vol 62 No 11 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Maputo's resistance to a Southern African force to quell the insurgents is poisoning relations with its former allies
Two months after Islamist militants mounted their spectacular invasion of the town of Palma in Cabo Delgado province, President Filipe Nyusi still does not know where to turn....
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As economic chaos and corruption reign, President Mnangagwa crafts a wave of new laws to pre-empt dissent
After bludgeoning his opponents for the past three years, President Emmerson Mnangagwa is stepping up laws against all dissent and erasing the last vestiges of judicial independence. Seizing...
Vol 62 No 11 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
President Ramaphosa will see off the legal challenges from Ace Magashule's camp but it will be messy and expensive
Political support for the fightback against President Cyril Ramaphosa and his allies in the African National Congress is eroding day by day. The last act of the drama...
U-turns and misjudgements are damaging the President’s standing with the public as stresses in the ruling coalition mount
As befits a devout evangelist and former pastor, President Lazarus Chakwera promised to lead Malawians 'to Canaan' after winning last year's dramatic election, a re-run of the previous...
Vol 62 No 10 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
After sidelining his main rival, President Ramaphosa has to take tough decisions on state companies, energy policy and jobs
There was no hint of triumphalism in Cyril Ramaphosa's measured speech on 10 May at the end of a dramatic three-day National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting that saw...
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Vol 62 No 10 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
French oil giant Total has been forced to follow through on its recent declaration of force majeure, and begin demobilising millions of dollars' worth of equipment from its...
President Filipe Nyusi is under heavy pressure to finally accept foreign military intervention to quash the escalating insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado.
Vol 62 No 9 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A bid to impeach a senior judge is part of the wider fight between loyalists of President Ramaphosa and his predecessor
It has taken 13 years for the Judicial Conduct Tribunal of the Judicial Services Commission (JSC) to recommend the impeachment of Western Cape Judge President, Justice John Hlophe,...
Vol 62 No 8 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Corrupt officials and business allies are running multi-billion dollar rackets in state companies, derailing attempts at reform
The beneficiaries of what could be over 100 billion rand (US$6.8bn) of 'irregular spending' in the country's rickety state-owned companies over the past three years are pushing back...
A well-planned attack on Palma in Cabo Delgado cost dozens of lives, raising questions about the future of the $20 billion gas project nearby
Although government forces claimed definitive victory on 27 March over the Ahlu Sunna Wal Jammah (ASWJ) fighters who had seized control of Palma, on the northern tip of...
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Vol 62 No 7 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The death of the Zulu king, Goodwill Zwelithini, promises turmoil for the already volatile province of KwaZulu-Natal
The death of King Goodwill Zwelithini, 72, from Covid-19 complications on 12 March, without agreement on how the succession should be managed will complicate the kingdom's already stormy...
Election season starts soon as lenders hang on to their funds and watch the ruling party take increasingly desperate measures to raise money
Contrary to some optimistic reports, Zambia is 'very far' from securing a bail-out deal from the International Monetary Fund, banking and official sources have told Africa Confidential. It...
ZANU-PF's manipulations have rid parliament of dissent and silenced criticism of high-level corruption
The expulsion of six MPs from Zimbabwe's parliament after a strange ruling that they no longer belonged to their own party deals a harsh blow to the opposition,...
Vol 62 No 7 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
After a marathon meeting, the party's National Executive backed Ramaphosa's call for action against ANC Secretary General Ace Magashule
The rival factions of the governing African National Congress are edging towards a final showdown after its National Executive Committee meeting on 27-29 March decided that the party's...
Vol 62 No 6 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The President’s foes in the ruling party are building a credible coalition to depose him and return supporters of Zuma to power
Former President Jacob Zuma and the African National Congress Secretary-General Ace Magashule, who are both facing multiple corruption charges, have launched an open, brazen campaign to unseat President...
Mozambique's prospects for victory in its law suits over US$2 billion in hidden loans are dimming, according to legal sources. Maputo has been suing Lebanese businessman Iskandar Safa's...
Vol 62 No 5 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The straight-talking finance minister faces multiple attacks as he tries to hold down civil servants' wages and cut state company funding
With more spending cuts and a slew of tax rises Finance Minister Tito Mboweni's budget today will make enemies across the board. Even after this, he may not...
Vol 62 No 4 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
ANC leaders are trying to persuade ex-President Zuma to appear at the Zondo Commission after claims about his personal spy network
President Cyril Ramaphosa's attempt to fight grand corruption in state agencies and the ruling party faces critical tests over the next month, on two parallel tracks. At the...
General Eugenio Mussa's death on 8 February from Covid-19, just three weeks after his appointment as Chief of the Armed Forces, is a major blow to President Filipe...
After buying more mines and banks, the mogul could become the country's top gold buyer
Business kingpin Kudakwashe Tagwirei, under United States sanctions since August, aims to expand his commanding stake in Zimbabwe's gold industry – and could end up taking control of...
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Vol 62 No 3 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
As officials argue over vaccine funding, the African country worst hit by the pandemic is fumbling its chance to limit the damage
A politically charged fight between the Treasury and the Health Department has derailed the government's bid to buy vaccines cheaply and quickly. Doctors and scientists criticise officials for...
President Filipe Nyusi has reshuffled the military command while troops retrain and re-equip with new supplies to help meet the rebel threat in Cabo Delgado, according to local...
Vol 62 No 2 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A conviction in Magashule's trial could save Ramaphosa's career in the ANC and at the polls. An acquittal could end it
African National Congress Secretary General Ace Magashule heads to the Bloemfontein Magistrate Court on 19 February to face 21 charges of corruption and fraud dating from his time...
Vol 62 No 1 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Ramaphosa must both placate unions and convince lenders he can reform the state, while fending off plots from inside his party
The fortunes of the ruling African National Congress, and Cyril Ramaphosa's own survival as party and South African president, are dependent on the outcome of municipal elections scheduled...
The President is entrenching himself while the opposition battles state repression and its own divisions
President Emmerson Mnangagwa's regime looks secure, in spite of what is widely viewed as Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front's complete political bankruptcy and the persistence of a deep-seated...
All the government’s energies are focused on winning the 12 August poll as it tries to ignore an economy in freefall
Aware that it looked odd that it did not have a plan to restore the nation’s economic fortunes, the government quickly rushed out its Economic Recovery Programme on...
The credibility of President's break with the country's kleptocratic and undemocratic recent past is fading fast
President João Lourenço promised an end to the corruption that characterised the rule of his predecessor, José Eduardo dos Santos, to the impunity of the ruling Movimento...
The region is furious with Nyusi for failing to counter the northern insurgency as his position in both state and party weakens
The chief concern of President Filipe Nyusi in the year ahead is the same that will take up most of the rest of his final term of office...