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Published 1st February 2024

Vol 65 No 3


Sudan

Why Tagadum could be a turning point

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

A civilian initiative to bring the warring factions to the negotiating table may be the last defence against a war that would shatter the country

Two opportunities to broker a ceasefire in Sudan's ruinous civil war have been arbitrarily waived aside in the new year by the warring generals' cohorts, raising concerns of a still deadlier escalation (AC Vol 64 No 25).


Juntas in shock split from Ecowas

Ecowas territory on world map. Pic: michal812 / stock.adobe.com
Ecowas territory on world map. Pic: michal812 / stock.adobe.com

Moscow is intent on filling the vacuum as three Sahelian military regimes worry Paris and Washington by cutting regional ties

Announcing their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) 'without delay', the juntas ruling Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali have sent a shockwave throug...

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Shock therapy keeps the people waiting

Pic: statehouse.gov.ng
Pic: statehouse.gov.ng

Dollar-rich investors have reacted to President Tinubu's radical reforms by rushing to the door

President Bola Tinubu's great gamble that shock therapy – ending subsidies and devaluing the naira – would bring back foreign capital and stabilise state finances isn't...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

The stage-managed decision by the military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to quit the Economic Community of West African States strikes at the organisation's credibility and at the region's framework for cooperation.

Some downplay its significance in financial terms. Less discussed is whether quitting the bloc will cause political and diplomatic damage. The rebel juntas are being courted by Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. They may well have to...

The stage-managed decision by the military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to quit the Economic Community of West African States strikes at the organisation's credibility and at the region's framework for cooperation.

Some downplay its significance in financial terms. Less discussed is whether quitting the bloc will cause political and diplomatic damage. The rebel juntas are being courted by Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. They may well have to rely on several of these countries for economic support.

Trade analysts point out that leaving the bloc could expose the juntas to higher tariffs and restrictions on the movement of goods. And having been shut out of international markets, the countries will no longer be able to access finance via Ecowas.

Nigeria has described the joint withdrawal as an exercise in 'public posturing' that would hurt their people's economic interests.

Ecowas isn't alone with its fractures. The East African Community, with its customs unions and free-trade areas has been trying a broker a slew of tariff disputes between Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. And the Intergovernmental Authority on Development is riven by disputes over Somaliland and the competing claims of the warring factions in Sudan. Holding these regional groupings together will dominate the African Union summit this month.

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Cash flows in but debt talks drag on

The treasury has received $600 million in vital IMF funds but doubts persist on a deal with creditors before election campaigning starts

At the start of a crucial election year, President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo's embattled government has some reasons to be cheerful following confirmation on 12 January by the Mi...


No bail-out on offer from Beijing

Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been wooing North Africa but his help doesn't extend to financial rescue packages

For President Kaïs Saïed's beleaguered and cash-strapped government, foreign interest – especially outside the usual suspects in the European Union – is regar...


The next stage in the battle over global tax rules

Plans for a UN authority on tax policy backed by African states are gaining ground in spite of western resistance

How are western states going to respond after losing a battle at the UN General Assembly last November over how global tax rules are negotiated? The European Union and Britain were...


Opposition in turmoil as Chamisa quits

The main opposition party has been rocked by the resignation of its leader, who accuses ZANU-PF of political violence and sabotage

The Citizens' Coalition for Change (CCC), the only opposition party that presented any realistic threat to the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU ...


The return of the hard men

President Samia won praise for mitigating her predecessor's authoritarianism, but his loyalists are on the march again and she is accommodating them

The outspoken Paul Makonda, who has just been appointed to a key ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) post, is fast emerging as the leader of a new dawn for resurgent loyalists of the ...


Global south wins at The Hague

South Africa has boosted its own and the developing world's prestige by bringing its genocide case against Israel to The Hague

The ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that Israel must take steps to prevent genocide in Gaza will increase pressure on the United States and the United Kingdom to...


Shell leads oil majors' exit from the Niger Delta

Companies accused of under-investment – arrangements on financing and liability for pollution may be contested

When the British oil major Shell announced on 16 January that it would be selling its interests in 18 oil licences in shallow water and onshore Niger Delta it raised awkward questi...



Pointers

14-year-old case reaches court

After fleeing Kenya in late 2008 and resisting extradition from the United Kingdom since 2011, the former CEO of Triton Oil, one of Kenya's biggest oil importers, Yagnesh Devani, i...