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Published 28th August 2026

Vol 67 No 17


South Africa

The soldiers beyond Ramaphosa’s reach

Lieutenant-Colonel Frans Mathipa
Lieutenant-Colonel Frans Mathipa

Special Forces accused of murder expose a security system in disarray – and an Islamic State network running from Mogadishu to Midrand

The South African National Defence Force’s Special Forces command is facing its gravest public challenge since apartheid: not a battlefield reverse, but allegations that serving soldiers abducted an Islamic State-linked financier and then killed the policeman who pursued the trail. Twelve military personnel have been charged and deny wrongdoing. Yet the case’s political charge lies elsewhere: promotions have followed the investigation, state-funded defence is continuing and three accused whose bail was revoked remain outside custody.


Abiy’s enemies find common cause

ETHIOPIA'S NORTHERN FRONT REOPENS: Addis Ababa's forces test Tigray. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ETHIOPIA'S NORTHERN FRONT REOPENS: Addis Ababa's forces test Tigray. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

A loose anti-federal alliance is becoming a political and military problem for Addis Ababa and in the wider region

On 1 August, heavy fighting broke out at Shererina, a Tigrayan military stronghold on the Ethiopia-Sudan border – arguably the most serious confrontation between the Tigray Security Forces...


Rebuilding the ethnic machine

ODM Central Management Committee and UDA Steering Committee meeting, State House Nairobi. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
ODM Central Management Committee and UDA Steering Committee meeting, State House Nairobi. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

A rebooted coalition might hold together but in Kenya’s political marketplace it is blocs, not ideas, that are the trading currency

The truism that Kenyan political parties are almost exclusively personal vehicles has been spelt out in technicolour by the fate of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) less than...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

That Yoweri Museveni’s son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, plans to succeed his father as President of Uganda was an open secret before confirmation came on 26 August. The First Family is not united in its support for the plan but it is hard to see any significant opposition to a Muhoozi presidency. Muhoozi’s rise to power as head of the Ugandan army, with his own political movement, the Patriotic League of Uganda, is troubling in a region where authoritarian rule is gaining sway. Muh...

That Yoweri Museveni’s son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, plans to succeed his father as President of Uganda was an open secret before confirmation came on 26 August. The First Family is not united in its support for the plan but it is hard to see any significant opposition to a Muhoozi presidency.

Muhoozi’s rise to power as head of the Ugandan army, with his own political movement, the Patriotic League of Uganda, is troubling in a region where authoritarian rule is gaining sway. Muhoozi says that he can win the 2031 election with 90%, but his main challenge will be legitimacy. Opinion surveys suggest that he has only a fraction of his father’s public support.

His status as army chief means the already blurred distinctions between the military and partisan politics will fade further. Ahead of January’s elections, Muhoozi threatened to jail or murder opposition leader Bobi Wine. Muhoozi was so intent on killing Wine that a member of the First Family had to ensure the opposition leader’s safe passage out of the country. The media and foreign diplomats have also been targeted.

Muhoozi has used his social media platforms to threaten to invade neighbouring Kenya, but he later apologised and promised to give some cows to President William Ruto. In June, he ordered troops to halt operations at the Nation Media Group facilities in Kampala, claiming he had the power to shut down any media house.

Read more

Mohammed VI faces a turnout test

The Palace expects its parties to retain control after the 23 September vote, but it has to make a managed contest look politically meaningful

Interior Minister Abdelouafi Laftit has been working hard for King Mohammed VI (M6) this summer, reassuring voters that the general election on 23 September will feature candidates of...


Al Shabaab tests Hassan Sheikh’s resolve as troop drawdown nears

Intelligence raids killed a jihadi commander but the insurgents’ staying power complicates any peacekeeping exit

Fighters from Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) say they killed veteran Al Shabaab commander Abdullahi Ganey and three other militants in Middle Shabelle on 13 August...


Saïed buckles in summer of discontent

A 55°C heatwave, power cuts and jailed dissidents have prompted a newly coordinated opposition to take on the regime

For the second month running, Tunisians have taken to the streets against President Kaïs Saïed, in what the Forum Tunisien pour les Droits Economiques et Sociaux (FTDES) says...


Beijing finds partners on both sides of the Tripoli-Benghazi divide

Chinese companies are building ties with the rival regimes, using banking, shipping and industries to expand operations

Without waiting for the rival leaders in Tripoli and Benghazi to settle their political feuds, Chinese companies are building up a corporate bulwark in Libya. In the west,...


Opposition leader Lissu turns the tables on President Hassan

The chair of Chadema is defending himself in his treason trial and trying to drag the president and her security chiefs into the witness box

The confrontation between the state and its opponents has entered a more dangerous phase in the wake of last October's elections, when security forces killed hundreds of protestors...



Pointers

Cocoa’s season of chaos

Preparing farmers for the compliance burden posed by the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) has been complicated by the slump in wholesale cocoa prices. The price of a...


No longer copper-bottomed

Zambia’s democratic credentials have taken an hammering ahead of the planned presidential inauguration on 1 September at ‘a location to be announced.’ The results declaring incumbent Hakainde Hichilema...