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Published 23rd October 2026

Vol 67 No 21


Kenya

The opposition must solve its alliance arithmetic

Edwin Sifuna, September 2026. Pic: @edwinsifuna
Edwin Sifuna, September 2026. Pic: @edwinsifuna

A unified ticket could win the popular vote, but constitutional thresholds and the country’s first presidential runoff deny anyone a clear run

Kenya’s politics is a permanent campaign. Less than two years after President William Samoei Ruto’s narrow defeat of Raila Amolo Odinga in August 2022, the Gen Z protests redrew the political map, pulling Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) into a de facto unity coalition (AC Vol 66 No 15). That deal was meant to help power Ruto to a second term next August.


Abiy’s gains intensify frontier pressure

ERITEA AND ETHIOPIA: Teetering on the brink of all-our warCopyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ERITEA AND ETHIOPIA: Teetering on the brink of all-our warCopyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Federal advances have sharpened fears of a wider confrontation, as mediators try to separate domestic conflict from cross-border tensions

How far will Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed go in his bid to remake the regional order in the Horn of Africa? When open conflict between the federal...


Tinubu builds the machine

NIGERIA'S STATE GOVERNMENTS (2023-2026): The rise and rise of Tinubu's APC. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
NIGERIA'S STATE GOVERNMENTS (2023-2026): The rise and rise of Tinubu's APC. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The president’s widening coalition and deep pockets give him an advantage as the opposition tries to turn protests into votes

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approaches Nigeria’s 16 January presidential election with the strongest political machine, but little popular enthusiasm. Turnout in the elections is likely to be even...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

The award of a 10-year contract to Rwanda for a Formula One Africa Grand Prix as part of a purpose-built sports and leisure centre with a new international airport costing over US$1.3 billion is President Paul Kagame’s biggest sportswashing project so far. Apart from the prestige of Rwanda representing the continent, Kagame could enjoy the schadenfreude of beating South Africa in the race for the contract. Longstanding tensions peaked last year when South African peacekeeping troops in eas...

The award of a 10-year contract to Rwanda for a Formula One Africa Grand Prix as part of a purpose-built sports and leisure centre with a new international airport costing over US$1.3 billion is President Paul Kagame’s biggest sportswashing project so far. Apart from the prestige of Rwanda representing the continent, Kagame could enjoy the schadenfreude of beating South Africa in the race for the contract. Longstanding tensions peaked last year when South African peacekeeping troops in eastern Congo-Kinshasa were bombarded by Rwandan-backed M23 militia fighters and forced to surrender. Until now, Kigali had focused on football sponsorship, but the collapse of its ‘Visit Rwanda’ deal with London-based Arsenal prompted a tactical switch to Formula One.

The racetrack, about 40 kilometres south of Kigali, will cost about $270 million along with a $50m annual ‘hosting fee’ paid to Liberty Media, owners of Formula One. But most of the cost, including 60% of the new airport at Bugesera, will be paid upfront by Qatar. Qatar Airways is also Formula One’s official airline. The hosting rights, due to start in the early 2030s, could earn Rwanda a $1bn a year in associated tourism revenues. A week after the Formula One award the corpse of Sergeant Major Robert Kabera, a Rwandan officer turned Kagame critic, was found beheaded near Uganda’s capital, Kampala. For some realities, sportswashing can’t eradicate.

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Zuma’s scare clouds the coalition maths

Uncertainty over the 84-year-old’s health adds risk to municipal elections that could reshape governance in the country’s economic heartland

Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party) is heading into the 4 November local government elections riding a wave of Zulu nationalism and anger against the African National...


Brussels pesticide compromise leaves African exporters in limbo

Europe’s pesticide overhaul threatens tougher checks on African produce while easing approvals at home, sharpening divisions between exporters, chemical suppliers and health campaigners

The battle over Europe’s pesticide overhaul highlights competing interests on both sides of the Mediterranean. Scientists and civic activists complain about lobbyists for agrochemical companies and farming organisations...


Growth upgrade fails to ease debt squeeze

The IMF and World Bank lift forecasts, but high US and European yields mean the cost of borrowing will punish African governments

Stronger forecasts and new investment plans at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on 12–18 October did little to dispel the shadow cast...



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