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Published 11th April 2024

Vol 65 No 8


Facing neither west nor east – but forwards

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

Unleashing tens of billions of investment across Africa, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are buying critical minerals and political influence

The strategy of the oil-fired Gulf States in Africa appears to be modelled on a foreign policy dictum coined by Ghana's founding President, Kwame Nkrumah: 'We face neither east nor west – we face forwards.' Like Nkrumah, the Gulf monarchs alternate between cutting deals in Washington and Beijing and Moscow. Unlike him, they have trillions of dollars in sovereign wealth funds and face no immediate threats of coups d'état.

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Thirty years on, genocide haunts the region

Pic: Jonathan Stutz / stock.adobe.com
Pic: Jonathan Stutz / stock.adobe.com

Among the most effective in Africa, Rwanda's army has exported the conflict to eastern Congo-Kinshasa, reshaping national politics en route

The genocide of Tutsi and massacre of Hutu 'moderates' launched on 7 April 1994 and perpetrated by the Forces Armées Rwandaises (FAR), and the Interahamwe Hutu militia it wo...


Puntland risks fracturing the federation

Pic: @HESaidADeni
Pic: @HESaidADeni

The latest confrontation puts the popular new constitution at risk, adding to the woe caused by Addis’s port deal with Somaliland

Regional President Said Abdullahi Dani has taken Puntland out of Somalia's federal system, sparking a political crisis that weakens national unity and threatens the devolution pain...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

A report just published by the United States Institute of Peace has given President Joe Biden's government a jolt. 'U.S. economic and national security depend on securing a reliable supply of critical minerals, including from Africa,' it argues. The United States is 'simply not on, or even near, par in competing with China for critical minerals investment and diplomacy in Africa,' the think-tank says.

That the Biden administration has largely failed to address the decline in influence...

A report just published by the United States Institute of Peace has given President Joe Biden's government a jolt. 'U.S. economic and national security depend on securing a reliable supply of critical minerals, including from Africa,' it argues. The United States is 'simply not on, or even near, par in competing with China for critical minerals investment and diplomacy in Africa,' the think-tank says.

That the Biden administration has largely failed to address the decline in influence in Africa under Donald Trump is not a revelation. Yet it is puzzling that the US has been so slow to move on such an important economic power struggle. The US, like Europe, needs to find major suppliers of lithium and rare earth elements to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles and reduce its reliance on Chinese supply of raw minerals.

Unlike Washington, the EU has recognised its predicament. Last year, it finalised its own Critical Raw Materials Act and has since brokered agreements with a several African states including Congo-Kinshasa, Zambia, Namibia and, most recently, Rwanda, to help it meet its 2030 carbon reduction targets. The EU sees procurement arrangements with Africa as realpolitik. In exchange, it is offers investments in the green transition and industrialisation. The US still enjoys some diplomatic heft in Zambia and Congo-K, but risks missing the boat elsewhere.

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Austerity the price of debt workout dodge

Determined to avoid lengthy finance talks, the President gambles he can fix the economy before the next elections

Will President William Ruto's strategy – austerity now, pre-election bonanza later – pay off as Kenyans face another year of spending cuts and higher taxes? Ruto calcul...


Oil broker James Ibori returns to Abuja stage

President Tinubu's ties with convicted fraudster and ex-Delta State governor will boost the ruling party and may cut oil theft

In Abuja, the story is of the rise and fall and rise again of James Ibori, former Governor of oil-rich Delta State, sentenced to 13 years in Britain for fraud and money laundering ...


Biya's government blocks bids to unite opposition

Ahead of key elections in 2025 – in which 91-year-old Paul Biya is seeking re-election – his ministers are cracking down on political foes

The government has pressed the panic button in response to plans for two opposition alliances to fight next year's elections. Minister of Territorial Administration Paul Atanga Nji...


The junta wants to claim Simandou's mega mine as its legacy

The generals have corralled companies to start up the world's biggest iron ore mine next year after overcoming serial legal and financing obstacles

After nearly three decades of delays and litigation, production at the giant Simandou iron ore reserves is to start early next year, say the main investors.



Pointers

Coalition talks divide ANC leaders

South African and African National Congress (ANC) President Cyril Ramaphosa has proposed to the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) that it consider going into opposition if it fails to secure a majority in the elections in May, instead of forming coalitions, political sources told Africa Confidential.

South African and African National Congress (ANC) President Cyril Ramaphosa has proposed to the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) that it consider going into opposition if...


Faure lobbies Washington

President Faure Gnassingbé is seeking to strengthen his government's ties to the United States and secure US investment under two recent laws. This coincides with a contenti...