By suppressing dissent in his party, the President puts at risk
its ethnic balance
The struggle for the succession to President Robert Mugabe gets sharper every day. His latest purge of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front puts his loyalists into...
The opposition Movement for Democratic Change will benefit from the factional rivalries in the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front, MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai has told Africa Confidential. 'The...
Vol 45 No 25 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Frelimo has won a huge but tarnished victory in this month's elections
The result was not quite what Mozambique's young, post-war generation would have hoped for. President-elect Armando Emilio Guebuza, poised to succeed Joaquim Chissano after the elections on 2-3...
Vol 45 No 25 |
- MOZAMBIQUE
Armando Emilio Guebuza (61), from Nampula, was associated with the worst abuses of Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo). As Interior Minister during the transition to Independence in...
Production is soaring, prices are up and Luanda is finding new
friends
With all the world betting on high oil prices, Angola's post-war economy is set to boom and to boost its soaring trade with China. The Finance Ministry credibly...
In our Namibia feature 'Sam's successor' (AC Vol 45 No 24) we described the United Democratic Front as a 'former DTA component'. The UDF had an alliance with...
With money and political dominance, the MPLA isn't rushing
to the polls
After the war, democracy and prosperity. That was the mantra during three decades of war between the MPLA and UNITA. The reality is different. The victorious Movimento Popular...
In the multi-million dollar post-war reconstruction business, the competition - political as well as commercial - is stiff. Job Capapinha has been brought in to replace Higino Carneiro...
The new President will have to work hard to convince people
that he is his own man
President-elect Hifikepunye Pohamba's first test will be to address opposition claims about the running of the 15-16 November election which gave him 76 per cent of the vote....
A purge is coming, in preparation for the 2005 elections and, one day, the departure of President Robert Mugabe. The President's faction of his Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic...
The rift between the United Democratic Front (UDF) government and the party continues to deepen. Investigating corruption in the former regime gives President Bingu wa Mutharika the ammunition...
Parliamentary Speaker Emmerson Mnangagwa stakes a claim to the succession
Feared and unpopular he may be but Parliamentary Speaker Emmerson Mnangagwa has now revealed himself to be a serious contender for the vacant vice-presidency. What is most remarkable...
Reformers reject Muluzi's legacy but the ruling party fights back
When Bingu wa Mutharika won the presidential election in May 2004, nobody expected much change from the previous ten years of Bakili Muluzi's presidency. One United Democratic Front...
A long queue of cases waits to be heard in court, cases concerning crimes allegedly committed during the decade of Bakili Muluzi's presidency, when billions of kwacha leaked...
Africa's most successful democracy will soon be run by a military man
The general elections of 30 October ended with a renewed majority of 31 seats for the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP). It was, predictably, a vote for no change...
There has been neither visible mention of nor comment on President Thabo Mbeki's recent posthumous decoration of the late President Ahmed Sekou Touré of Guinea.
A touted take-over of Gold Fields by Harmony Gold, both major South African companies, looks as though it may be about to fall flat on its face. Harmony...
Vol 45 No 22 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Deputy President Jacob Zuma's future is on the line as his friend and financial advisor goes on trial
The two most powerful men in the country's politics flanked grieving widow Linda Makhaye at the funeral of African National Congress firebrand Dumisani Makhaye on 30 October. To...
Erynis Iraq replies to Africa Confidential
Further to your article 'South Africa/Iraq: A very private war' of 11 June 2004 (AC Vol 45 No 12), we wish to respond to the allegations made.
Donors will give Angola the benefit of the doubt and hold a pledging conference next year. On 15 October in Luanda, Karel de Gucht, Belgian Foreign Minister, said...
With former Foreign Minister Hidipo Hamutenya and his supporters demoted in a purge orchestrated by outgoing President Sam Nujoma, many MPs elected in the 15-16 November polls will...
A brand new party is proof of political moves by President
and ex-President alike
Ex-President Frederick Chiluba is making a comeback, linked to the newly formed Party for Unity, Democracy and Development. PUDD consists mainly of his close associates: its spokesperson, Dan...
Now the MDC must decide whether to fight next year's elections on Mugabe's terms
Morgan Tsvangirai will be back in the High Court on 2 November to face more treason charges, this time for planning a mass action campaign against the government...
Vol 45 No 21 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Pressure is mounting on Deputy President Jacob Zuma following claims by state prosecutors on 19 October that he received a 500,000 rand (US$79,000) bribe from France's Thomson-CSF.
Vol 45 No 20 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
A foreign take-over of a local bank could mean the end of exchange
controls
Barclays' planned purchase of ABSA (Amalgamated Banks of South Africa) is set to be the biggest foreign investment in post-apartheid South Africa. It cheers economic liberals, who argue...
Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa sacked Vice-President Nevers Mumba on 4 October for igniting a serious diplomatic row. Mumba had accused individuals in Congo-Kinshasa of funding the Zambian opposition.
The new Pan-African Parliament has already made an impact. As it opened in Midrand on 16 September, Pretoria established diplomatic ties with the Polisario Front's government-in-exile, the Saharan...
The MDC's election boycott is badly timed and sends the wrong signals
Just as an independent poll showed a solid gain in popularity by President Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front, the leaders of the opposition Movement for Democratic...
The Zimbabwe government has taken powers to nationalise the assets of people it regards as enemies of the state. It works like this. A statutory instrument (part of...
An anonymous e-mail campaign against former Foreign Minister Hidipo Hamutenya threatens to undermine the governing party's image of unity in the run-up to November elections. President Sam Nujoma...
Zambia grows richer but people feel poorer and they blame the
President
Political fumbling is overshadowing real economic achievements. President Levy Mwanawasa has failed to deliver a constitution and the anti-corruption crusade against his predecessor, Frederick Chiluba, shows few results....
The President hopes to prosecute his corrupt predecessors, who keep fighting back
President Bingu wa Mutharika has surprised those who dismissed him as his predecessor's uncharismatic surrogate. He has won cross-party support and is rapidly becoming popular, three months after...
The new cabinet, named on 13 June, contains factions that will pull President Bingu wa Mutharika in all directions
Economic failure confronts Mugabe more sharply than opposition parties and foreign critics
The African Union summit in Addis Ababa formally accepts a devastating critique of the government's human rights abuses. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation lambasts the government's...
Considering the economic nightmares with which he has to contend daily, Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono is a relaxed man. He speaks gaily of economic challenges, never of...
President Mugabe has laughed off forecasts of another food crisis; now the UN presents the evidence
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation analysts predict chronic food shortages in a damning new report on Zimbabwe obtained by Africa Confidential. It says 'an estimated 30-40 per...
Vol 45 No 14 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Pretoria's new diplomats win continental plaudits but face more chaos in their neighbourhood
Pretoria's expansionists are having a good year. Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma was elected to the chair of the African Union's newly formed Peace and Security Council and...
This week's military agreement between Rwanda and South Africa may be touted as African Union cooperation and regional peace-building. But some in Pretoria fear that if Kigali continues...
New President Bingu wa Mutharika took three weeks to establish his cabinet and his parliamentary majority, in time for the Speaker's election on 28 June (AC Vol 45...
The new President's main opponent could not beat him – so he joined him
Opposition darling Gwanda Chakuamba, leader of the Mgwirizano alliance, shocked Malawians by taking his Republican Party (RP) into the governing coalition led by the United Democratic Front government....
The election has seriously weakened the UDF, although its candidate, Bingu wa Mutharika, won the presidency with 36 per cent of the vote. Over 20 cabinet ministers...
SWAPO's new flagbearer offers Nujomaism without Nujoma at the helm
It was the result President Sam Nujoma wanted. The congress of the governing South West African People's Organisation on 28-29 May chose party Vice-President Hifikepunye Pohamba as its...
A Pretoria-based military company is at the centre of a security row in Iraq
South African-based Erinys International (AC Vol 45 No 4) and its affiliate Erinys Iraq have secured the renewal of their US$50 million contract, awarded by Iraq's Coalition Provisional...
US companies help President Mugabe to finance secret food imports
President Robert Mugabe is staking his people's future on false claims of a bumper harvest. His Information Minister, Jonathan Moyo, parrots the line but fails to convince Zimbabweans....
Malawians seemed reluctant to elect new President, Bingu wa Mutharika, the hand-picked successor to Bakili Muluzi as candidate of the ruling United Democratic Front (AC Vol 45 No...
ZANU-PF strategists believe that a new plan to lock out foreign food aid and hold early elections will bring certain victory
The government's order to a United Nations' crop assessment team to leave the country last weekend is part of its strategy to maintain tight political control over food...
Busy days for judges as the President struggles to lock up his predecessor
The two main suspects in President Levy Mwanawasa's anti-corruption campaign have gone missing. Former intelligence chief Xavier Chungu and former Ambassador Attan Shansonga have left the country, frustrating...
The election for the ruling party's leadership looks increasingly tight
Foreign Minister Hidipo Hamutenya remains the front-runner in an increasingly close and bitter contest to choose the next leader of the governing South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO)....
Lesotho has scored a rare but convincing victory against corruption. The Maseru courts convicted three multinationals of bribing to secure contracts in the giant Highlands Water Project and...
Opposition splits, not political merit, will help the UDF win the presidency –again
By most measures, the governing United Democratic Front (UDF)have little hope of winning the national elections on 18 May. President Bakili Muluzi's UDF government has presided over worsening...
The government may turn away foreign food aid as part of its ruthless election strategy
An internal United Nations' memorandum describes Zimbabwe's latest crop projections as 'complete nonsense' and 'quite impossible.' That's no surprise. Fanciful agricultural forecasts are common in Agriculture Minister Joseph...
Vol 45 No 9 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
President Thabo Mbeki has finally ended the African National Congress's awkward relationship with Inkatha Freedom Party leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi by leaving him out of the cabinet in the...
Finance Minister Christopher Kuruneri is the first of President Robert Mugabe's big guns to go to gaol, where police can hold him for a month before bringing him...
A corruption probe into ZANU-PF's finances aims to block the
Parliamentary Speaker's bid to succeed President Mugabe
A high-level investigation initiated by former army commander General Solomon Mujuru into claims of massive corruption in the commercial operations of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Popular Front (ZANU-PF)...
The ruling party has won another by-election – and the opposition is faltering
The economic meltdown continues, land resettlement is hobbled by corruption and mismanagement, and the ruling elite is quarrelling over the presidential succession. So the main opposition Movement for...
The upcoming season of pan-African summits will test the new institutions and promises of reform
The grand economic plans of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NePAD) are to be revived when African and Western leaders meet in Mozambique on 16-17 April. Three...
Vol 45 No 8 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
As polling stations closed on 14 April, activists were predicting the end of coalition government. With the African National Congress set to win a two-thirds majority, many ANC...
Ambitious Foreign Minister Hidipo Hamutenya looks set to be installed as successor to President Sam Nujoma by the ruling South West African People's Organisation at its 28-29 May...
Vol 45 No 7 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The ANC will win the elections but the size of its victory will determine the President's powers
The test is personal. The campaign for the national elections on 14 April is dominated by President Thabo Mbeki's speeches and his face on the television and the...
Vol 45 No 7 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Late last year, the African National Congress ran out of cash. It could not pay its 500 staff their November and December salaries on time or give them...
President Robert Mugabe seems bent on getting Zimbabwe thrown out of the International Monetary Fund. It is hard to do but this year, he might succeed.
The central bank govenor's anti-corruption drive may be part
of a bigger plan
To the surprise of sceptics, Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono is enforcing new disciplines in the economy and catching out some well connected business people. Several of those...
The presidential spin-doctor, Information Minister Jonathan Moyo, hopes for a parliamentary seat now that electors in Tsholotsho (his home area) in Matebeleland North, have selected him as the...
Vol 45 No 5 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The government set itself an examination and, not surprisingly, it passed
With national elections just over a month away (AC Vol 45 No 3), the African National Congress government has formally assessed its first ten years. Not surprisingly, it...
Vol 45 No 5 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Authored by the government's Communications Director, Joel Netshitenze, the official 'ten-year review' of the African National Congress tenure claims great strides in providing housing, water and electricity but...
President Mbeki's diplomatic forays into Congo have a sound commercial base
South Africa's dreams of harnessing Congo-Kinshasa's massive hydro-electric resources to power most of Southern Africa are moving towards reality. The first aim for Eskom, SA's state-owned power utility,...
Vol 45 No 4 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
The ANC will win the Easter elections but it needs to get its voters out
Few bother to ask who will win the general elections on 14 April. One cartoon last week portrayed President Thabo Mbeki astride an enormous African National Congress horse,...
The death of ex-special forces officer Frans Strydom in a bomb explosion in Baghdad in early February is focusing attention on South African mercenaries doing security work in...
Vol 45 No 3 |
- SOUTH AFRICA
Orthodox policies and populist gestures aim for a winning electoral strategy
Two years ago the value of South Africa's currency, the rand, was plummeting so fast that the government, suspecting a conspiracy of speculators, opened an investigation. Then the...
Personal and political rivalries are helping ex-President Frederick Chiluba's defence
Zambia's constitution provides that the Director of Public Prosecutions cannot be sacked or removed from office until his conduct has been investigated by a tribunal of judges. So...
The battle to succeed President Sam Nujoma is heating up after Hifikepunye Pohamba announced he would stand for president of the governing South West African People's Organisation.
Financial and political casualties mount as the struggle to succeed President Mugabe intensifies
Political kingpin Phillip Chiyangwa has plenty of enemies but his arrest on 10 January on charges of obstructing a police probe into banking corruption has rocked the political...
If the powerful can get their hands on oil money, why bother about
reform?
Economic prospects are booming in post-war Angola but only for those in the oil industry and the tiny minority who get oil money. Three big new oil-fields will...
One of Angola's murkier debt deals was an intricate agreement for rescheduling US$5 billion owed, mostly since the Cold War, to Russia. After hefty repayments, the then Finance...
President Muluzi's legacy looks sadly like the late Dr Hastings Banda's
Facing polls in May, President Bakili Muluzi's United Democratic Front (UDF) is accused of the same offences as its autocratic predecessor under the late Kamuzu Hastings Banda (AC...