Undeterred by the escalating civil war and the United States' decision to freeze US$500 million to help with acquisition and development costs, Safaricom is pressing ahead with its...
Neither side in Ethiopia's growing conflict is ready to negotiate, as Addis Ababa targets the supposed enemy within
At the beginning of last week, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced he was going to take command of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) on the frontline against...
Reports that a joint opposition force might march on Addis Ababa have triggered a fresh push for a ceasefire and political talks
The call by Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni for a summit on Ethiopia's deepening crisis reveals growing alarm among regional leaders and the problems their organisations face in resolving...
DISPATCHES
Embassies prepare to evacuate staff from the capital as the federal government holds mass rally to mobilise support
On 8 November, the UN Security Council is due to discuss the worsening turmoil in Ethiopia and its regional consequences. Although there is no majority on the Council...
READ FOR FREE
DISPATCHES
Following Washington's lead, Brussels mulls sanctions on leaders on warring sides in the Tigray conflict
In the wake of the United States warning on targeted sanctions and ejection of Ethiopia from Washington's free trade deal in Africa, the European Union is discussing plans...
READ FOR FREE
As the Prime Minister calls again for military victory, the war is breaking up the federation and the economy
Increasingly strident statements in Addis Ababa and reports of federal government losses in the Amhara and Oromo regions show how rapidly the national security crisis is escalating.
Inaugurated in front of regional leaders, the Prime Minster has shuffled his cabinet and launched a massive new offensive in Tigray
Signs decorated with flowers and reading 'A New Beginning' in readiness for Abiy Ahmed's grand inauguration in Addis Ababa on 4 October held little reality even for his...
Reports from the field say the Tigray forces have held off the first wave of the new federal offensive and may be gaining ground
In the run-up to the first year's anniversary of the war in Tigray, no clear victor has emerged and there is a high risk that the conflict, devastating...
READ FOR FREE
Gulf states are reviewing their alliances while Farmajo seeks salvation in Addis Ababa and Al Shabaab suffers unexpected reverses
President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo' flew to Addis Ababa on 3 October to attend the swearing-in of Abiy Ahmed as prime minister for another five years, hoping that...
DISPATCHES
Starting his second term, Abiy has brought in some carefully chosen opposition figures and centralised more control in his office
A month after a second round of parliamentary elections confirmed the Prosperity Party's landslide victory in June, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has launched a new offensive against the...
READ FOR FREE
DISPATCHES
Planned deal could give consortium a dominant role in more market-oriented communications industry
The decision by the European Commission's competition authority to clear Kenyan telecoms company Safaricom and its European parent Vodafone of competition concerns gives the green light for the...
Reports of worsening famine conditions far eclipse direct casualties of the fighting. Few expect much progress from the mediator
With regional and international organisations focusing on a multitude of other crises, the war between Tigray's forces and Federal forces, backed by Eritrea, is set to drag on...
DISPATCHES
As fighting spreads and alliances come under strain, neither side expects a diplomatic breakthrough for peace talks
So many regional diplomats and officials have been criticising the African Union for its failure to highlight horrific abuses in the 10-month war between the federal government in...
READ FOR FREE
DISPATCHES
An alliance between Tigray and Oromo military factions against Addis Ababa is set to escalate the fighting across the country
The Oromo Liberation Army, a militant breakaway group, says it is in talks with the Tigray People's Liberation Front to create a military and political alliance aimed at...
READ FOR FREE
After political victories and battlefield defeats, Prime Minister Abiy wants to boost military budgets and centralise more power
In the face of diplomatic efforts by African and Western officials to broker a ceasefire and humanitarian access, the fight over the future of Tigray and the national...
DISPATCHES
France's President Macron calls for talks as USAID chief Samantha Power lands in region for five-day visit
Both the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigrayan forces are hardening their positions as the conflict enters what the International Crisis Group describes as a 'dangerous new phase'...
READ FOR FREE
As Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed calls for a national war, Tigrayan forces mobilise on three fronts
As fighting was spreading eastwards to Afar Region, on 18 July Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared a total war on the Tigray People's Liberation Front, bringing in soldiers...
With a lack of credible mediators and both sides ruling out political negotiations, the likeliest outcome is an intensifying conflict
All sides have to make some tough decisions on strategy as the eight-month fight for control of Tigray escalates, dragging in surrounding regions. Judging by the declarations of...
DISPATCHES
International agencies push to get aid to war-torn region after Prosperity Party sweeps the country
There was scarcely a celebratory party to mark the sweeping wins of Premier Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party across the country. On paper, winning 410 out of the 436...
READ FOR FREE
DISPATCHES
The UN Security Council is likely to reject an effort by Tunisia to persuade it to intervene in the increasingly bitter regional dispute over Ethiopia's mega-dam
In a rare outbreak of north African solidarity, Tunisia has called on the United Nations Security Council to finalise a binding agreement between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt on...
READ FOR FREE
Communal clashes in five regions and all-out conflict in Tigray will undermine the legitimacy of the new government
It was meant to be a landmark election, a critical stage in Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's proclaimed agenda for democratic transition after decades of authoritarian rule. Ahead of...
READ FOR FREE
DISPATCHES
Addis Ababa under pressure to open negotiations as Tigrayan forces consolidate after retaking Mekelle
Regional officials and diplomats are urging Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government to launch talks with its opponents in Tigray three days after it pulled federal troops out of...
READ FOR FREE
DISPATCHES
Billed by Premier Abiy as a first attempt at 'free and fair elections', over 37 million are registered to vote for a new parliament
Politicians across the spectrum agree that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party (PP) will win a substantial majority of the 547 seats in parliament in the national elections...
READ FOR FREE
DISPATCHES
Cyril Ramaphosa to attend discussions at G-7 summit on deepening regional crisis in the Horn despite an ominous silence from the African Union
The conclusions of internal UN documents that over 350,000 people in the Tigray region are starving amid 'catastrophic conditions' after seven months of fighting between federal forces and...
READ FOR FREE
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed and one of his top advisors are rethinking the United Arab Emirates' policy in the Horn
As Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government complains about United States 'interference' in the Tigray conflict, there are signs that Washington's stance has caused some governments, especially the...
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is running out of room to manoeuvre as Addis Ababa's relations with the United States and Europe fall to their lowest ebb for three...
DISPATCHES
Prime Minister Abiy's opponents will focus on disrupting the elections in every way possible
The announcement by Birtukan Mideksa, chairwoman of The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), that the national elections are to be postponed until 21 June risks producing the...
READ FOR FREE
DISPATCHES
Race heats up for the world’s biggest untapped mobile money market
Having spent years admiring the rise and sustained dominance of Safaricom's mobile money service M-Pesa in Kenya, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government may find itself competing with it...
READ FOR FREE
DISPATCHES
After problems with voter registration and security, the chances of another delay in elections are increasing to the frustration of the government
Government officials have told Africa Confidential that there will be no further delays to the polls scheduled for 5 June, and that campaigning has started in earnest. They...
READ FOR FREE
Asmara sends more military units across the border to Tigray and beyond, despite its pledge to withdraw
Ethiopian officials are preparing for national elections in early June against a backdrop of political and economic reversals for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Despite growing violence in Tigray...
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been among the most vocal critics of Ethiopian premier Abiy Ahmed's handling of the ongoing civil war in Tigray. In...
DISPATCHES
The EU is tag teaming with the US to keep up pressure on Addis Ababa for reconciliation measures ahead of the June election
The European Union will send an election observation mission for June's general elections in Ethiopia, and has restarted sending humanitarian aid to the country, but there are strings...
READ FOR FREE
Ethiopia and Eritrea may consider a federation as the conflict in Tigray becomes part of a wider reordering of regional geopolitics
Efforts to float a trial balloon for greater closeness between Eritrea and Ethiopia by Ambassador Dina Mufti at his weekly press conference in Addis Ababa at the end...
READ FOR FREE
Issayas’s forces were the spearhead of Addis Ababa’s ousting of the Tigray government. They are there for the long haul
As the fog around the conflict in Tigray slowly begins to lift, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's reliance on the armed forces of his Eritrean counterpart Issayas Afewerki is...
READ FOR FREE
Prime Minister Abiy has finally admitted to an open secret about Eritrean troops, but the guerrilla war in Tigray rumbles on
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has finally, if grudgingly, admitted to Ethiopia's House of People's Representatives on what everybody has known for months: Eritrean troops are operating across Tigray....
DISPATCHES
As horrendous reports emerge abuses of civilians in the embattled region, Addis Ababa admits involvement of Eritrean troops
International pressure seems to have prompted Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to declare on 26 March that Eritrean troops will withdraw from the Tigray region after reports of their...
READ FOR FREE
DISPATCHES
The diplomatic rifts caused by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government over the Tigray conflict are getting deeper
After toughening its language in recent weeks, the United States government is despatching Senator Chris Coons to meet Abiy Ahmed and African Union officials in Addis Ababa to...
READ FOR FREE
A burgeoning Ethiopia-Eritrea-Somalia axis is resetting relations all over the Horn and undermining regional institutions
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is fending off all pleas for mediation and accountability for human rights abuses committed during his campaign to defeat the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front...
DISPATCHES
Diplomatic calls to regional leaders try to coordinate policy towards Premier Abiy's government
Abiy Ahmed's government is increasingly embattled as criticism grows from the European Union and wider international system about the humanitarian emergency in Tigray as fighting continues for a...
READ FOR FREE
DISPATCHES
Vol 62 No 4 |
- ETHIOPIA
- SUDAN
Role of Egypt and UAE in region under scrutiny as Washington changes its posture
Like a game of three-dimensional chess, the revived border disputes between Addis Ababa and Khartoum about sovereignty over the fertile Al Fashqa area, have been layered on top...
READ FOR FREE
DISPATCHES
As the UN and the European Union warn about Tigray's crisis, Premier Abiy's government will keep the issue off the summit agenda
This weekend's summit of the African Union, held partly in Addis Ababa and partly online, will struggle to avert its gaze from the multiplying crises around the organisation's...
READ FOR FREE
Vol 62 No 2 |
- ETHIOPIA
- SUDAN
Addis made a deal with Khartoum when it went to war in Tigray. Amhara nationalists could upset this delicate arrangement
Tension along the Ethiopia-Sudan border has risen sharply as Khartoum asserts itself and its territorial rights, threatening to force a once-minor border issue into a major confrontation. On...
The Prime Minister needs to hold successful elections and resolve a long-running dam dispute as he seeks to rebuild his reputation
Holding successful elections, finalising the continuing disagreements over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and providing a new political settlement acceptable to both ethnic nationalists and pan-Ethiopian centralists...