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Published 6th November 2026

Vol 67 No 22

South Africa

The ANC pays the price of holding on to power

Pic: @MYANC
Pic: @MYANC

The former ruling party’s municipal retreat may strengthen the brokers it needs to govern and sharpen the contradictions inside Ramaphosa’s national coalition

South Africa’s political order is fragmenting, but the people driving the realignment are not the young activists who have spent years protesting against inequality, unemployment and the failures of the democratic state. They are established political figures fighting over the remnants of the old order.

A hustler’s guide to high places

William Ruto. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
William Ruto. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

William Ruto promised to challenge the Nairobi establishment. His business circle illustrates how readily a new one can form

William Samoei Ruto’s rise to the presidency in August 2022 was framed as a David and Goliath story in which the underdog ‘hustler’ – Ruto – defeated Kenya’s...

Defections test the family running the RSF

SUDAN'S DE FACTO PARTITION: Schisms are weakening the Rapid Support Forces. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
SUDAN'S DE FACTO PARTITION: Schisms are weakening the Rapid Support Forces. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Disputes over patronage, casualties and local power are straining Hemeti’s militia, without depriving it of the capacity to wage war

A succession of defections by senior cadres in the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) run by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Hemeti’ are changing the dynamics of its war with...

BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

African governments are showing extraordinary interest in the ‘election’ of the next UN Secretary-General. It is an election in inverted commas as five member states – China, Britain, France, Russia and the United States as permanent members of the UN Security Council – have the power of veto. Senegal’s ex-President Macky Sall has left the race already and Uganda’s Olara Otunnu is well down the field. But African delegations warn that sharp cuts are exacerbat...

African governments are showing extraordinary interest in the ‘election’ of the next UN Secretary-General. It is an election in inverted commas as five member states – China, Britain, France, Russia and the United States as permanent members of the UN Security Council – have the power of veto.

Senegal’s ex-President Macky Sall has left the race already and Uganda’s Olara Otunnu is well down the field. But African delegations warn that sharp cuts are exacerbating the UN’s diminishing role on conflict prevention, peacekeeping and peacebuilding, climate, humanitarian action and development finance.

Rebeca Grynspan, ex-Vice-President of Costa Rica who until recently headed UNCTAD, topped the latest straw poll. She was followed by Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, director general of the Atomic Energy Agency, and Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, former foreign minister of Guyana. Running fourth was United Arab Emirates Deputy Foreign Minister Lana Nusseibeh. The Africa policy of the UAE, accused by independent media and UN reports of arming the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, has made Nusseibeh’s candidacy polarising. That she has been one of the UAE’s strongest defenders on the issue has turbo-charged the debate. The controversy has prompted Turkey to nominate Feridu Sinirlioglu, who heads the OSCE, turning the election into a geopolitical fight with the UAE.

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Abiy’s economy is heating up

Positive investment news and far-reaching economic plans are threatened by escalating security risks and renewed fighting

As conflict rages once more in the north of Africa’s second most-populous country, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party government continue to talk up Ethiopia’s economic...

Putin’s energy pitch meets scrutiny over African recruits

Moscow’s summit aimed to deepen its influence through power and security partnerships but failed to allay concerns over Africans fighting for Russian forces in Ukraine

Russia’s limited economic weight is not holding back its growing diplomatic and military weight in Africa as its officials showed by negotiating new security agreements with the African...

Beijing and the Gulf tighten their grip

Port and railway deals promise cheaper trade and new investment. They also give foreign operators leverage over the continent’s commercial arteries

The UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) estimates that by 2030, the single market accord could mean a 28% rise in intra-African freight demand. Already, colonial-era ports...

Cocoa Board’s funding squeeze exposes serial mismanagement

Years of hidden losses and rising arrears have left buyers and farmers struggling as state body raises $1.4 billion on the domestic markets

A liquidity crunch in Ghana’s cocoa sector has forced the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod) and the Ministry of Finance to seek domestic bond financing to fund cocoa purchases...

Commonwealth blinks on Tanzania over Lissu and poll violence

Dodoma's deadlines to release Tundu Lissu, enact democratic reforms and account for election violence have expired without any sign of sanctions

Critics have accused the Commonwealth of failing to follow through on its pressure on Tanzania over human rights abuses and growing autocracy. The issue has not come up...

Moscow courts both sides of the Sahel divide

Russia’s proposed security accord with Ecowas would extend its reach beyond the juntas and expose divisions over regional security

Having armed the military regimes that broke with the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), Moscow is now courting the organisation they left behind. Russia wants to...

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