Jump to navigation

Published 26th May 2022

Vol 63 No 11


Ethiopia

Abiy juggles the truce with force

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2022
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2022

The Prime Minister needs to look firm to his ethno-nationalist allies while appearing to concede western demands to deepen the Tigray truce

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has skilfully managed alliances with Oromo and Amhara political groups ever since he came to power in April 2018. He used them to obtain a historic peace with Eritrea, to oust Tigrayans from power, to drop the Oromos and then to create his own national Prosperity Party. Most recently he used the Amhara and Eritrea to pursue the war with Tigray.


Abiy’s war aims meet geopolitics

Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli
Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli

Addis Ababa is trying to regain finance and investment from the West but continues to support Russia at the UN

As a two-months-old ceasefire with fighters in the northern Tigray region risks unravelling, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is grappling with multiple national and international contrad...

READ FOR FREE

Diplomacy on ice

Olaf Scholz visits Cyril Ramaphosa, 24 May 2022. Pic: GovernmentZA GCIS (CC BY-ND 2.0)
Olaf Scholz visits Cyril Ramaphosa, 24 May 2022. Pic: GovernmentZA GCIS (CC BY-ND 2.0)

Pretoria’s position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is complicating its economic and political relations

The international argument over how to respond Moscow's invasion of Ukraine played out, with some diplomatic grace, when Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited President Cyril Ra...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

The African Development Bank opened its annual meeting in Accra on 23 May with dire projections of accelerating inflation, faltering growth and mounting debt service costs. Most of this interruption in what had been the continent's pandemic recovery was triggered by Moscow's war on Ukraine, according to AfDB President Akinwumi Adesina.

This all sharpens the focus on the AfDB's role. A year before the pandemic, it distributed about $1.5 billion a year in grants and concessional loans, ...

The African Development Bank opened its annual meeting in Accra on 23 May with dire projections of accelerating inflation, faltering growth and mounting debt service costs. Most of this interruption in what had been the continent's pandemic recovery was triggered by Moscow's war on Ukraine, according to AfDB President Akinwumi Adesina.

This all sharpens the focus on the AfDB's role. A year before the pandemic, it distributed about $1.5 billion a year in grants and concessional loans, around 10% of the credits allocated to Africa by the World Bank's soft loan affiliate, the IDA. Both the AfDB and the World Bank have come under fire: the World Bank for its slow and inadequate response to the worsening debt crisis in developing economies and confused policies towards funding the energy transition.

And the AfDB management faces criticisms over governance standards. Two years ago, an internal probe cleared Adesina before he was appointed for second term, a position confirmed by an external assessment of the probe's findings. But now there are fresh claims about pressures faced by dissident senior officials in the bank as well as external experts brought in to assess its programmes. In Accra, the bank's governors and board are to discuss plans to boost its concessional lending capacity by over US$20bn. Such plans will redouble the focus on its governance.

Read more

Leaders favour new CFA franc plan

Political and financial imperatives are driving reform of the CFA zone but may be stymied by an international economic slowdown

After being put on hold during the pandemic, plans to reform the CFA franc zone are back on the agenda in West Africa. These plans are unfolding as criticism of France's economic a...


Macky Sall faces the third-term curse

Opposition candidates are coordinating across rural areas and provincial cities to break the ruling alliance's grip on parliament

Opponents of President Macky Sall are assembling a broad alliance ahead of the parliamentary elections on 31 July. If they are successful, this will influence Sall's calculations a...


Honeymoon over as junta extends rule

Opposition politicians have lost patience with Guinea's military ruler, and plan to defy a ban on protest rallies

The announcement by Guinea's military junta that it would remain in power until mid-2025, and the imposition of a ban on demonstrations, have been denounced by opposition forces, w...


President Buhari's edict shakes up presidential race

All ministers vying for office in next year's elections have been ordered to quit. Bank governor Emefiele is yet to confirm his presidential run

In one executive order the country's presidential contest has been up-ended and a sweeping cabinet reshuffle has been triggered. On 12 May, President Muhammadu Buhari called on pol...



Pointers

Who will buy?

Barely 12 months ago there was real urgency in efforts to develop Covid-19 vaccine production facilities in Africa, and even United States President Joe Biden backed some kind of w...


Deadline dramas

One of the few immutable facts about the presidential primary elections in Abuja is that the deadline by which all parties must submit the names of their candidates is 3 June. Much...