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Published 2nd March 2023

Vol 64 No 5


Nigeria

Tinubu's last trick: from godfather to Kabiyesi

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

Opposition contenders question the ruling party candidate's victory in elections marred by technical failures, sporadic violence and a historically low turnout

The next act of Nigeria's presidential election drama has started with fire and fury. At one end of the stage stands the official winner, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose victory was announced in the darkest hour before dawn on 1 March; at the other, the thwarted opposition candidates, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who are railing against systemic electoral fraud and threaten legal appeals to the Supreme Court.


Energy plan riles ANC factions and vested interests

André de Ruyter. Pic: Sumaya Hisham/Reuters/Alamy
André de Ruyter. Pic: Sumaya Hisham/Reuters/Alamy

The budget's debt relief for Eskom will impose targets and hasten privatisation but offers no short-term relief from power cuts

The explosive television interview by André de Ruyter, outgoing chief executive of ailing electricity utility Eskom on 21 February, which upstaged Finance Minister Enoch God...


ANC cabinet contenders step up lobbying

President Cyril Ramaphosa delivering his response to the 2023 State of the Nation Address debate. Pic: @PresidencyZA
President Cyril Ramaphosa delivering his response to the 2023 State of the Nation Address debate. Pic: @PresidencyZA

President Ramaphosa is using party committees to consolidate his grip ahead of national elections next year

South Africans, still buckling under the strain of crippling daily power cuts with no end in sight, are waiting for the appointment of a Minister of Electricity, announced by Presi...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

The expulsion of UN Human Rights Council officials from Mali and Uganda points to a concerted pushback against the agency and allied institutions. On 26 February, Mali's military government gave Guillaume Ngefa-Atondoko Andali, head of the UN peacekeeping mission's human rights division, 48 hours to leave the country, claiming he was biased towards civil society groups. That followed a letter dated 3 February, in which the Ugandan government stated that it would not renew the mandate of the U...

The expulsion of UN Human Rights Council officials from Mali and Uganda points to a concerted pushback against the agency and allied institutions. On 26 February, Mali's military government gave Guillaume Ngefa-Atondoko Andali, head of the UN peacekeeping mission's human rights division, 48 hours to leave the country, claiming he was biased towards civil society groups. That followed a letter dated 3 February, in which the Ugandan government stated that it would not renew the mandate of the UN human rights office in Uganda. Sources in the Human Rights Council worry that these expulsions could escalate among African states, particularly those which are boosting their relations with Russia and the Kremlin-linked Wagner group.

A UN review last year lambasted President Yoweri Museveni's attacks on the opposition. We hear that Uganda may also have acted because Justice Minister Norbert Mao felt humiliated when faced with protestors during his recent visit to Geneva.

And Ethiopia's government has warned the African Union that it will terminate the mandate of the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia, a move which could scupper attempts to prosecute war crimes committed during the Tigray war. On 1 March, the Washington Post reported that Eritrean and Ethiopian troops massacred over 300 villagers east of Adwa, days before Addis Ababa signed a peace treaty.

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Elite sets itself for lithium boom

The government has banned exports of the mineral and set up its own lucrative deal via a military-linked company to sell to China

With global demand for lithium soaring – prices went up more than 100% in 2022 and are expected to keep rising – Zimbabwe could be poised for a bonanza. The country's l...

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A junta that's going nowhere

The five ruling colonels are digging in for a long stay – but neither Wagner's mercenaries nor the army are stemming the jihadist tide

The military junta is making itself comfortable. That much was clear on 21 February when the National Transitional Council (NTC), a hastily convened rubber-stamp parliament of 120 ...


Capital crisis in the continent

Reeling from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, African economies need investment to boost growth

Over a year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered another shock to a global economy recovering slowly from the pandemic, Africa's economies are counting the cost of rocketin...


A high turnout will shake up national politics

Peter Obi easily wins the opinion polls but the elections on the ground are still wide open

If many of the local and international opinion polls on Nigeria's presidential elections on 25 February prove accurate, then Peter Obi, the multi-millionaire banker standing on the...


Electoral commission row raises fresh doubts about poll

Rights activists, opposition politicians – and even factions within ZANU-PF – lambast the latest redrawing of electoral boundaries

The redrawing of electoral boundaries is due to be gazetted into law by 26 February despite politicians and rights groups questioning its fairness and the accuracy of the data used...


Weah stays in pole position

The controversial president has a poor governing record, but no candidate looks strong enough to defeat him in October’s poll

The temperature is rising fast in the run-up to Liberia's parliamentary and presidential election in October. Last month, President George Weah used the occasion of his sixth annua...


Border troubles threaten the region

The Chad-Sudan frontier and the restive militias which straddle it are looming larger as tensions rise

On 29 January, Sudan's military leader, General Abdel Fattah al Burhan, went to Ndjamena to discuss growing insecurity on the Chad-Sudan border. No surprises there, perhaps, but th...



Pointers

Court tells HYPREP to come clean

A Federal High Court in Nigeria has ordered the government's flagship environmental remediation agency to stop work and publish its accounts.


Macron's relaunch

Not so much a policy revamp as a public relaunch: that was the message of Emmanuel Macron's Elysée palace address on 27 February, two days before flying to Libreville, Luand...


Las Anod still under fire

Despite appeals for calm and for negotiations with the elders of Las Anod, Hargeisa's forces continue to shell the town with heavy and light artillery, and fire from tanks. The gov...