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Published 16th March 2023

Vol 64 No 6


Nigeria

State elections will reinforce three-party vote split

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

Peter Obi's Labour Party will face fierce local fights as incumbent governors defend their fiefdoms after last month's political upsets

The outcome of the elections in 28 of Nigeria's 36 states on 18 March will have more effect on the daily lives of most voters than the disputed presidential elections last month.


Vote-getters and loyalists predominate

Pic: @PresidencyZA
Pic: @PresidencyZA

The President's reshuffle prioritises next year's elections instead of addressing the economy, infrastructure and electricity emergency

After serial delays and great expectations, President Cyril Ramaphosa brought in 10 new ministers for his reshuffle on 6 March with a wary eye on next year's general elections. It ...


How money talks in national elections

Viktor Vekselberg. Pic: Alexander Miridonov/Kommersant/Sipa USA/Alamy
Viktor Vekselberg. Pic: Alexander Miridonov/Kommersant/Sipa USA/Alamy

A law forcing political parties to disclose their funding has cast light on cash from three local billionaires and a Russian oligarch

With national elections due to be held next year, concerns are brewing over whether donations could be used to buy influence. Africa Confidential's analysis of declarations by Sout...

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BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

The United States' diplomatic campaign in Africa entered its next phase with Secretary of State Antony Blinken's stopovers in Addis Ababa and Niamey from 14-17 March. Blinken is keeping up the pace of high-level visits, promised at last December's US-Africa leaders summit, and preparing the ground for a visit by President Joe Biden this year. Vice-President Kamala Harris is due in Ghana, Tanzania and Zambia this month.

Focusing on regional security and trade agreements, as well as cou...

The United States' diplomatic campaign in Africa entered its next phase with Secretary of State Antony Blinken's stopovers in Addis Ababa and Niamey from 14-17 March. Blinken is keeping up the pace of high-level visits, promised at last December's US-Africa leaders summit, and preparing the ground for a visit by President Joe Biden this year. Vice-President Kamala Harris is due in Ghana, Tanzania and Zambia this month.

Focusing on regional security and trade agreements, as well as countering Beijing's and Moscow's overtures, Blinken met with Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Pushing for faster implementation of November's ceasefire deal with Tigray, Blinken offered another US$330 million of humanitarian aid but no commitments on re-admitting Ethiopia to the tariff-free trade scheme under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

Much remains to do on the ceasefire: little progress has been made on forming a new administration in Tigray, let alone starting reconstruction work or holding offenders accountable for atrocities on all sides. Nor is there any sign that Abiy can call to order the Eritrean forces who helped defeat the Tigrayans but have stayed outside the terms of the ceasefire. Another pressure point for Washington is in the IMF and the World Bank, as Ethiopia tries to restructure its foreign debt and raise finance to rebuild the war-battered economy.

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Samia builds her base and sets down markers

After a shaky start President Samia has imposed herself on ruling party and state alike and eased up on repression, but popularity eludes her so far

President Samia Suluhu Hassan astonished supporters and sceptics alike when she attended International Women's Day celebration on 8 March as a guest of Bawacha, the women's wing of...


How El Sisi lost the cold war over water

Closer ties between Addis Ababa and Khartoum sideline Cairo's position on the Nile dam

Egypt, a key player in the Nile Basin, is watching with alarm as the recent rapprochement between Sudan and Ethiopia undercuts its leverage over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam...


The one-party state bounces back

Borrowing from Daniel arap Moi's playbook, President Ruto's allies plan to turn his coalition into a single, dominant party

After painstakingly building an alliance of mainly small parties to carry him to power last year, President William Ruto is determined to subsume them all into his victorious Unite...


Uneasy peace at Las Anod

Addis has persuaded Hargeisa to ease its artillery barrages on the town, but Somaliland's president remains determined to crush his opponents

Oblivious to the concerns of western countries and interested neighbours, President Muse Bihi Abdi of Somaliland has now listened to envoys of Ethiopia and called off the all-out a...


Energy drives Italy's turn to Libya

Rome desperately needs North Africa's gas and is making  commercial and political investments in Libya

Italy has already replaced Russia as its main supplier of gas, which is transforming its strategic relationship with North Africa, especially Algeria, Libya and Egypt. Rome intends...


Magufuli's mega-projects live on

Instead of reviewing the grand economic schemes she has inherited, the President is embracing them, despite warnings about the viability of some

A key part of the political identity of late President John Magufuli was to promote massive infrastructural projects to boost industrialisation and bring prosperity. President Sami...


Brussels backs Italy's hard line on migration

A leaked letter from the European Commission chief spells out the EU's plans to deter and return migrants to their home countries

A week after the sinking of a boat carrying several hundred migrants off the Calabrian coast in southern Italy which killed more than 60 people, European Commission President Ursul...



Pointers

Disclosure costs Maputo

The London High Court judge presiding over the civil case brought by Mozambique against Credit Suisse bank and the naval contractor Privinvest in January 2020 says that he will str...


Khaki vigilantes

The Ghana Armed Forces have come under fierce public criticism following an apparent vigilante operation they conducted at Ashaiman, a densely populated town near Tema, in the Grea...


Doubling down on anti-gay bill

Uganda's parliament is set to pass a new law that criminalises identifying as gay, lesbian or transgender, same sex marriage, and the promotion of homosexuality.