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Published 1st May 2026

Vol 67 No 9

Mali

The junta loses control after the onslaught and a stalemate sets in

MALI: The coordinated attacks by a jihadist-Tuareg alliance have shaken the junta. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
MALI: The coordinated attacks by a jihadist-Tuareg alliance have shaken the junta. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Assimi Goïta’s regime is teetering as insurgent attacks intensify and its Russian allies withdraw

Three days after Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) fighters killed defence minister Sadio Camara and destroyed his home in Kati, General Assimi Goïta finally resurfaced. After the attacks began, Goïta fled to an old air base in Bamako. The Kati attack formed part of a combined and coordinated operation with rebels of the Front de libération de l’Azawad (FLA), which targeted five localities across Mali almost simultaneously.

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Traoré’s revolution abolishes democracy

BURKINA FASO: Captain Traoré's regime is losing the security battle despite its militaristic posture. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
BURKINA FASO: Captain Traoré's regime is losing the security battle despite its militaristic posture. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The junta’s military operations have killed over 1800 civilians in two years, but it has lost control over most of the country

Abandoning any pretence that his regime is a transitional bridge to even a distant restoration of elected multi-party politics, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, who seized power in a military...

A tax maestro takes the reins

Wale Edun hands the Finance Ministry over to Taiwo Oyedele. Pic: @FinMinNigeria
Wale Edun hands the Finance Ministry over to Taiwo Oyedele. Pic: @FinMinNigeria

The new finance minister wants to double federal revenues but first has to address galloping poverty levels in the face of radical reforms

When Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu quietly dropped his longtime ally Wale Edun as Finance Minister on 21 April, describing the sacking as ‘a resignation on health grounds’,...

BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

The decision by the United Arab Emirates to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on 28 April threatens the cartel more than at any time since its establishment five decades ago. It’s bad news for Africa’s oil-producing countries because it will create more market volatility, especially if there is a production race after a settlement between the United States and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Such a race would favour the biggest producers such as ...

The decision by the United Arab Emirates to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on 28 April threatens the cartel more than at any time since its establishment five decades ago. It’s bad news for Africa’s oil-producing countries because it will create more market volatility, especially if there is a production race after a settlement between the United States and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Such a race would favour the biggest producers such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Russia, sidelining the many smaller producers in Africa. Somewhere in between are Africa’s mid-scale producers such as Nigeria, Angola, Libya and Algeria.

It will also deepen the rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which will struggle to uphold OPEC solidarity and discourage further defections. Already Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are fighting it out through proxy wars in the wider region: most devastatingly in Sudan, but also in Yemen. Oil industry analysts say the UAE’s decision is a response to its humiliation by Saudi Arabia in July 2021 in a fight over production levels at an OPEC meeting.

Leaving OPEC will allow the UAE to exceed the cartel’s production caps and ramp up production. The UAE can produce around 4.5 million barrels a day compared to pre-war output of 3.7m b/d, and could hit 5m b/d by the end of 2027. Increased production will, in general, be good news for Africa’s 29 oil importers.

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Regional rifts define the succession race

Africa’s split over Macky Sall contrasts with Latin America’s trio of contenders as member states weigh competing reform agendas

Against a backdrop of shrinking funding and sharpening geopolitical rivalries, the formal hustings at United Nations headquarters in New York on 21-22 April showcased four contenders, all keen...

Balancing Rome and Paris, Ruto locks in the Mattei plan

On a three-day trip to Italy, the President agreed multiple funding deals under Giorgia Meloni's €5.5bn Mattei Plan but the opposition questions the pace and volume of disbursements

President William Ruto’s sales pitch to Italian politicians and business leaders went down well, even if some of his claims strained credulity. ‘If you are looking at de-carbonising...

Africa faces the costs of the US-Iran war

Bretton Woods institutions have cut Africa’s growth prospects at their Spring Meetings, as economists assess the shock to the global economy

The early 2026 optimism on Africa’s economic prospects, when the International Monetary Fund raised growth projections for African economies, has given way to concerns over the impact of...

Court pulls the rug from under anti-corruption drive

A High Court ruling has effectively stripped the Office of the Special Prosecutor of its independence, giving President Mahama’s Attorney-General decisive control

Ghana's seven-year experiment with an independent anti-corruption prosecutor is unravelling. On 15 April, the High Court in Accra ruled that the Office of the Special Prosecutor (OSP) could...

Pointers

Failure to launch

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s last-minute cancellation of his trip to Eswatini last week was an embarrassing setback and further evidence of Taipei being outmanoeuvred by China. Lai accused...

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