Islamists are manoeuvring to take centre stage in Algeria, where efforts to create a national protest movement have been stifled.
Morocco's Parti de la justice et du développement (PJD) formed the main opposition in the previous National Assembly and took 107 of its 395 seats in the 25...
Egyptians set off on their democratic electoral road using a system designed bythe army and with a confusing 42 or so parties to vote for, 31 formed since...
The new government will have to balance regional and ideological interests and try to mop up a flood of weapons
The election of Abdel Rahim el Keib as Prime Minister, with 26 of 51 votes on the National Transitional Council (NTC) on 31 October, mystified both activists and...
Ex-soldiers and police officers recruited in Cape Town helped some of
Gadaffi’s family escape to Algeria but another team was less successful
Two teams of South African mercenaries are believed to have helped members of the Gadaffi family to escape from Libya and may have tried to save the late...
The likely winner of the Constituent Assembly elections is the Islamist party which the deposed autocrat Ben Ali tried to repress
Tunisians kept their affection for constitutional principles and the rule of law throughout the corruption and autocracy that prevailed under President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, whom they...
The eight contenders for the Assembly include:
• Hizb Ennahda (Renaissance Party): founded in 1989 by Rachid Ghannouchi, the party has established itself as a mainstream Islamist...
The fall of Hosni Mubarak left a vacuum and the army wants to be sure his replacement will protect its interests
The generals who rule in Cairo are well positioned to shape the new political landscape and hold on to their huge financial interests. As economic pressures grow on...
The revolution has run low on funds as tourists have stayed away and businesses closed after President Mohamed Hosni Mubarak fell in February. Flaunting its nationalism, the Supreme...
Vol 4 (AAC) No 12 |
- LIBYA
- ASIA
The National Transitional Council (NTC) has finally formed a
government, which should kickstart Libya’s reconstruction despite the
fact that loyalists to former leader Moammar el Gadaffi are
still
holding out in Sirte....
Vol 4 (AAC) No 12 |
- LIBYA
Chairman, National Transitional Council, Libya
The ageing elite which supported Gadaffi to keep revolutions at bay now faces much bigger challenges at home
There is no prospect of Algeria’s rulers voluntarily ceding power to a new generation. The Libyan crisis has galvanised them. Much as Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi has been...
Transitional National Council leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil had a hero’s welcome at the United Nations General Assembly in New York on 20 September but Africa was deeply divided...
After the collapse of the Colonel’s regime, its successors intensify the hunt for its chieftains and its assets
Reports of Gadaffi family deaths and flights by regime stalwarts to neighbouring countries have been greatly exaggerated but as Africa Confidential went to press, the signs were that...
Speculation is rife about what Libya’s new rulers will do with Gadaffi’s immense investment portfolio in sub-Saharan Africa
The strange thing about taking over the Libyan Arab Foreign Investment Company (Lafico), its head told Africa Confidential some years ago, was just how variable its assets could...
Just as Mozambique’s Resistência Nacional Moçambicana threatens to return to violence, the man who championed it at the height of its atrocities has surfaced in papers found in...
Vol 52 No 17 |
- LIBYA
- AFRICA
Declaring victory after six months of war, the new regime in Tripoli has rejuvenated the Arab Spring and may promote political change further south
With its victory over the forces of Moammar el Gadaffi this week, the Transitional National Council (TNC) has proved it has more staying power than suggested by its...
The military makes history by putting one of its own on trial but cannot disguise the regime’s loss of direction
On 3 August, ousted President Mohamed Hosni Mubarak appeared in court, caged and bedridden, alongside his two sons, Alaa el Din and Gamal, to face charges of murder...
Political parties are talking about a ‘Democratic Alliance’, combining the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) with rival groups such as Al Wafd, Al Ghad and others...
The offensives by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the brave but shambolic Transitional National Council fighters show no sign of overwhelming Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi’s forces. Fuel...
Vol 4 (AAC) No 9 |
- LIBYA
- CHINA
Instability in the Middle East and North Africa has put pressure on China’s non-interference principle, pushing it into more pragmatic territory
Beijing signalled the biggest change in its Africa policy when it decided to accept the National Transitional Council as a negotiating partner in the peace talks between Colonel...
Vol 4 (AAC) No 9 |
- MOROCCO
- CHINA
In late June, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced its support for the constitutional changes that will allow King Mohammed VI to maintain power while giving...
Running out of options, Gadaffi declared in his birthday speech on 7 June that he would choose ‘death before surrender’
As the rebel war to drive Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi from power stretches out, public support for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s intervention is weakening. However, NATO governments...
Traditional constituencies linked into the Makhzen system will probably swing the 1 July referendum in favour of King Mohammed VI’s proposed constitutional reforms. Makhzen means that palace and...
Vol 4 (AAC) No 8 |
- LIBYA
- TURKEY
On 23 May Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President Abdullah Gül and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu held talks in Ankara with the Chairman of the Libyan Interim Transitional...
Astute reforms have held revolution at bay but the monarchy could be running out of time
So far, monarchies have proved more resilient to the democracy wave sweeping North Africa and the Middle East than the nationalist dictatorships, but in Morocco, some business and...
Vol 52 No 11 |
- EGYPT
- ETHIOPIA
Egypt’s revolution seems to have boosted prospects for a settlement with Ethiopia over the Nile waters dispute. Cairo’s interim Prime Minister, Essam Abdel Aziz Sharaf, made a cordial...
Activists want the transitional regime to purge the state apparatus and organise free elections this year, and tempers are fraying
After days of running clashes between police and protestors, Prime Minister Béji Caïd Essebsi’s government announced a night-time curfew on 7 May. Along with the country’s politics, the...
A humanitarian disaster threatens as the regime struggles to survive
The prevailing chaos in Libya shows what can happen if a popular uprising goes wrong – and where Egypt and Tunisia could have ended up. The number of...
King Mohammed VI (‘M6’) seems in little danger of losing his
throne. However, the mainly peaceful protests for political change and
social justice inspired by the Arab Spring uprisings in...
Algiers calculates that astute state spending will counter growing political anger at unemployment, corruption and chronic housing shortages
The strikes and popular protests across Algeria point to economic and social pressures similar to those that toppled entrenched leaderships elsewhere in North Africa. However, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika...
The AU mission to Libya was an abject failure but the South African leader
got a chance to catch up with an old pal
South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma led an African Union peace mission to Libya on 11 April. The mission quickly fell apart, which did nothing for the AU’s poor...
Vol 52 No 7 |
- LIBYA
- AFRICA
The tight circle of loyalists around the Gadaffi clan hope their military dominance and diplomatic tactics will derail the rebellion
The resilience of Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi’s regime after ten days of aerial bombardment combined with the military weakness of the opposition groups has prompted Britain, France...
The West’s new allies in Libya are largely unknown. The most familiar faces to join the revolution include the Ambassador to the United Nations, Abdel Rahman Shalgam, a...
The generals have won some important tactical victories against the activists of Tahrir Square
Six weeks after the military eased out President Mohamed Hosni Mubarak after a mass campaign against his regime, the generals are gradually reasserting their grip on Egypt’s political...
Just as United States-based Kosmos Energy is about to launch an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the New York Stock Exchange to finance operations in Ghana’s Jubilee field,...
Vol 4 (AAC) No 5 |
- LIBYA
- ASIA
The crisis in Libya is exposing foreign policy contradictions across the world – including among Asia’s rising powers
China and India, like many Western and African states, have torn up their diplomatic rule books as the crisis in Libya moves from revolution to civil war. First...
Vol 4 (AAC) No 5 |
- LIBYA
- ASIA
Chinese traders in Tripoli are watching closely to see how the Western-led attacks on Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi’s regime will affect business in the short term. South Korean...
Oppositionists want sweeping constitutional change; the military wants quick fixes to the old constitution, then fresh elections
Political tension is rising again over the military’s plans to hold constitutional and presidential elections within six months, a move which would benefit mainly the formerly ruling National...
As the regime attacks civilians, European states are tearing up their trade deals with Gadaffi and his family
The European Union’s decision to freeze the assets of the Central Bank
of Libya, the Libyan Investment Authority sovereign fund and other
businesses could have serious consequences for Libyan investment...
After seizing the east of the country and the oil installations, the opposition steels itself for a long campaign
As Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi fights back hard against his opponents, the prospect of his early overthrow has given way to concern about widespread instability in a deeply...
The resignation of Prime Minister Ahmed
Shafik, 77, on 3 March is another victory for protestors. Former
Transport Minister Essam Sharaf
succeeds him and is forming the next cabinet. Sharaf, 59,...
Under pressure from revolutionary youth, the army has pushed out Mubarak but its commitment to reform is highly questionable
As everyone – save fearful tyrants – salutes the spectacular courage of Egypt’s young people in driving out President Mohamed Hosni Mubarak, the military has emerged as the...
Civilians who benefitted from the ancien régime may fare less well than their military counterparts. Hosni Mubarak’s younger son, Gamal Mubarak, is believed to have made a fortune...
The WikiLeaks cables reveal much about the Gadaffi family and show that no one expects real change or reform until after the Colonel’s departure
The secret world of Libya’s oil industry, as well as its palace politics, has been laid bare by the publication of hundreds of United States cables by WikiLeaks...
As protestors and Mubarak supporters clash in Al Tahrir Square, the organised political parties are positioning themselves for negotiations
The fast-growing power of Egypt's democracy movement seems
set to force President Mohamed Hosni Mubarak from power
sooner rather than later, following the military's promise not
to suppress the street protests...
New Wafd Party: nationalist and liberal with free-market values;
founded in 1983, reviving the aristocratic and traditional Wafd,
abolished after Gamal Abdel Nasser's 1952 'revolution'.
It is considered a major opposition...
Vol 52 No 3 |
- TUNISIA
- FRANCE
The Paris Public Prosecutor's office is opening a preliminary
investigation into funds and property held in France by Tunisian
ex-President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, his family and entourage.
Transparency International...
Vol 52 No 3 |
- EGYPT
- BRITAIN
Gamal Mubarak, Egyptian presidential son and
putative heir (until he announced on 3 February that he would
not stand for President) of beleaguered President Hosni Mubarak,
was widely rumoured to be...
Protests after a desperate unemployed graduate’s suicide ousted the Ben
Ali regime and may change regional politics
The arrest of 33 members of the former ruling family less than a week after the overthrow of President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali on 13 January consolidates...
As the 13 May deadline for the Nile Basin Initiative Cooperative Framework looms, Egyptian efforts to stop the deal have become more apparent. The stances taken by Burundi...
This year’s presidential election is unlikely to bring much change but
the real challenge to the ruling party will come from the streets
The likeliest choice of official candidate for the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) in September’s presidential election is between the 82-year-old and ailing incumbent, Mohamed Hosni Mubarak, and...