After fighting formidable presidential campaigns, Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar have failed to follow up
Whether it is the 1,400-strong Nigerian delegation to the UN COP28 climate summit in Dubai, or the supplementary budget that allocated US$35 million to items such as a...
The government's attempts to 'postpone austerity' could backfire as debt restructuring hits new obstacles
President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo's success in securing the return of enough MPs from the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) to push through the 2024 budget by 138...
Vol 64 No 25 |
- GUINEA BISSAU
Domingo Simões Perreira, leader of the Assembleia Nacional Popular (ANP), Guinea Bissau's parliament, called all deputies to the parliament building on 13 December for the continuation of the...
Based on ultra-optimistic data on oil exports and tax, the President insists his market reform policies are on track
The Central Bank of Nigeria's second successive postponement of a bi-monthly meeting of its influential monetary policy committee (MPC), in November, points to dissension behind the scenes...
The radio silence from President Tinubu's economic reform team is unsettling financial bigwigs
Mystery surrounds the failure of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to meet since its new governor Yemi Cardoso was appointed in late September. Bankers don't like...
The regime's split with the anti-French and pro-Russian Yerewolo – its biggest supporter – may have been provoked by links to Hizbollah
Fear of links to Iran and Hizbollah helped turn interim President Colonel Assimi Goïta's regime against its biggest domestic supporter, and to imprison its leader and harass other...
Vol 64 No 24 |
- SIERRA LEONE
The main beneficiaries of the failed coup against President Julius Maada Bio's government in the early hours of 26 November seem to be the 1,890 inmates sprung from...
The President is accused of stacking the cabinet and the military with his fellow Yoruba – and the critics are getting louder
The government's policy team has won plaudits internationally but at home it is struggling to reignite the economy and the burden of its reforms is hitting middle-class and...
The junta's seizure of this key northern city from the Azawad coalition could create more problems than it solves
The victory of Forces armées maliennes (FAMa) and its Russian Wagner Group allies over the Coordination des mouvements de l'Azawad (CMA) for control of Kidal on 14 November...
Vol 64 No 24 |
- CÔTE D'IVOIRE
The former chief executive of Prudential and Credit Suisse is returning to national politics as presidential contender
A big choice faces the internal elections committee of the Parti démocratique de Côte d'Ivoire (PDCI), the long-time ruling party now in opposition, as they prepare to choose...
Violence, low turnouts and blatant vote rigging raise doubts about the APC's latest state election victories
Such was the nature of the victories for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the off-cycle state governorship elections on 11 November in Kogi and Imo states,...
Civil society groups are demanding that European Union lawmakers include a guarantee of minimum prices for cocoa producers in the latest agreement between the EU, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire...
In the closest election since the civil war, voters choose between the two front-runners in the presidential run-off
Regional stability and economic progress weighed heavily in the second round of the presidential elections as voters trooped to the polling stations on 14 November. The early signs...
A judge in the London High Court has ruled against an award which could have cost Nigeria US$15 billion, but the shadow of corruption in the affair remains
'Victory is claimed by all,' said Tacitus, a historian of ancient Rome, 'failure by one alone.' His point resonates with the 23 October verdict in the case of...
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The public fight over the president's history polarises politics and reinforces the need for judicial reform
That so many Nigerians expected the Supreme Court to confirm Bola Tinubu's victory in this year's Presidential elections reflects a consensus about the judiciary rather than the merits...
Opposition demands for Ernest Addison to resign over $5.2bn loss have exposed the politicisation of the Bank of Ghana
Bank of Ghana Governor Ernest Addison reacted angrily after hundreds of protestors took to the streets of Accra on 3 October demanding that he and his two deputies...
Worsening economic conditions and corruption swung votes behind the opposition candidates
A close second round run-off looks almost certain after Liberia's presidential elections failed to deliver a decisive conclusion in the first round of voting on 10 October. With...
Vol 64 No 21 |
- SIERRA LEONE
The unusual part-lobbying part-security pact between recently re-elected President Julius Maada Bio and former Green Beret and United States defence consultant Jerry Torres continues to take shape. Washington...
Both government and citizens seek US dollars but the greenbacks are getting scarcer and the naira keeps depreciating. The government wants portfolio investors to return to Nigeria and...
The Sahelian juntas have signed a military alliance as jihadist and separatist groups step up their attacks
As Mali's military regime pursues its drive to reassert central government authority over the Kidal region hitherto dominated by Tuareg former separatists, conflict has spread across the north,...
MPs probe claims of a conspiracy to remove the Inspector General of Police ahead of next year’s elections
Police in Accra are on tenterhooks as they wait for a parliamentary committee to conclude its investigations into a leaked audio tape hinting at government plans to oust...
After Britain's National Crime Agency investigated her for 11 years, Diezani Alison-Madueke, Nigeria's former Minister of Petroleum Resources in 2010-15, finally appeared at Westminster Magistrate's court on 2...
Vol 64 No 20 |
- BURKINA FASO
On 27 September, the government informed the nation that a conspiracy to overthrow it had been foiled. The announcement came just days before the first anniversary of Captain...
Vol 64 No 20 |
- GUINEA BISSAU
Faction fighting between members of the old ruling party paralyses government and threatens catastrophe for vital cashew exports
A new government took office in mid-August pledging cohabitação (cohabitation). But the cohabitees– parliament and president – look as divided as ever as the economy heads into meltdown....
The government is hunting for foreign exchange to stabilise the naira and speed up growth after its reform shocks
The nomination of Olayemi Michael Cardoso, a former chairman of Citibank, as governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) opens the next chapter of President Bola Ahmed...
President Akufo-Addo is helping his deputy in the succession campaign despite growing internal dissent
Vice-President Mahamudu Bawumia's landslide victory in the New Patriotic Party's Special Delegates' Conference and the withdrawal of former Trade Minister, Alan Kyerematen, has put Bawumia in pole position...
After President Macky Sall announced in July that he would not seek a third term, 11 contenders for the presidential nomination of his Alliance Pour la République (APR)...
Former Prime Minister Idrissa Seck has beefed up his international lobbying and campaign team by hiring Bruce Fryer, a US advisor for the non-profit Vanguard Africa and Future...
The President's policy experiments – on subsidies, the naira and the military – have raised questions about his ministerial team
A mass of contradictory signals greeted Bola Ahmed Tinubu's first hundred days in the presidency on 6 September. The day before, the National Labour Congress had called on...
Mirage jets, Reaper drones and some helicopters, their crews and support teams will likely be among the first French military elements to be withdrawn from Niger following talks...
Investment in future uranium mining operations was already on hold before Niger's July military coup, contrary to reports that the problems followed the coup, industry executives have told...
The junta and its Wagner Group allies are reopening battles with the former separatists as they race to take over the UN's bases
After a decade of the UN's 15,000-strong peacekeeping force operating in northern Mali, the region is adapting to its sudden departure. Two threats stand out: the insurgent Islamist...
Vol 64 No 18 |
- SIERRA LEONE
Government hires US lobbyists after election dispute escalates and senior military officers are arrested
United States defence consultant Jerry Torres has struck an agreement with Julius Maada Bio that he says will make him National Security Advisor to the newly re-elected President...
After calling regional leaders' bluff over military action, Niamey's putschists say they are ready to negotiate
Serious negotiations to take Niger forward from the crisis born of the 26 July coup are at last under way after the Niamey putschists met with the envoys...
Anger on the streets is mounting in the wake of spiralling food and fuel
Hailed by bankers and foreign investors, President Bola Tinubu's decisions to end fuel subsidies and float the naira have collided with reality. The measures are fuelling the highest...
Vol 64 No 17 |
- NIGERIA
- BRITAIN
Under investigation by Britain's National Crime Agency (NCA) for a decade, Nigeria's former oil minister Diezani Alison-Madueke was charged on 22 August with several bribery offences. Alison-Madueke has...
The publication of a letter from the UN High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR) to Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada condemning human rights violations following last November's failed assault...
Worsening financial strictures and revenue shortfalls are adding to the urgency of independent calls for tougher action against state skulduggery
As investigations multiply into conflicts of interests in state agencies, lawyers and rights activists are accusing the New Patriotic Party (NPP) government of covering up malfeasance. Their calls...
While publicly opposing the Niger junta, Lomé is offering it support amid reports that the Wagner Group is operating in northern Togo
President Faure Gnassingbé's government is assisting the Niger junta to consolidate power, Africa Confidential has learned, although as a member of the Economic Community of West African States...
Beyond ignoring military threats and reshuffling the army command, the ruling generals lack a strategy
In another show of insouciance, the Niamey junta named a new team of ministers a few hours before West African leaders met in Abuja on 10 August to...
Unresolved investigations into the diversion of over $125 million of the defence budget may explain why the generals overthrew President Bazoum
Looming in the background of the Niger coup is the role played by the biggest procurement scandal in the country's history – the diversion of nearly half the...
Facing harsh sanctions and military action by the Economic Community of West African States the junta is cracking down on its domestic foes
The political class in Niamey and sundry intelligence sources had been speculating about the possibility of President Mohamed Bazoum's overthrow for months. There had been grumblings in the...
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Political payback rather than competence shapes list of ministerial nominees as economic woes deepen
The publication of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's list of 28 ministerial nominees on 27 July was held up for almost two months by tortuous negotiations over federal and...
As General Abdourahamane Tchiani's putsch raises security concerns for Niger's neighbours, western governments and companies are assessing the risk to the operations. France's nuclear energy firm Orano operates...
Vol 64 No 15 |
- SIERRA LEONE
As Julius Maada Bio reshapes his government in the wake of the disputed results of the 24 June election giving him a second term, his new team is...
One of São Tomé's most important businesses, the Rosema brewery, is once again a bone of contention between politically influential local business owners Domingos 'Nino' Monteiro and his...
State electricity utility Énergie du Mali is a crucible for political rivalries and the sacking of its boss highlights a split in the junta's ranks
As early as March, 'la canicule' (the heatwave) is at work, with temperatures peaking above 40 degrees Celsius until June, and with it demand for electricity for air-conditioning....
Federal lawmakers jostle to run the most lucrative committees in Abuja as accountability plummets
Nigerians are eagerly waiting to see President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's choice of ministers, likely to be announced in the next days, but he has already made many of...
The mercenary Wagner group will be the main beneficiary as international peacekeepers prepare to quit and jihadists step up attacks
Malian junta leader Col Assimi Goïta pronounced himself 'very satisfied' on his Twitter account following a lengthy phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on 14 June. The...
Surprised relief greeted President Macky Sall's 3 July announcement that he will not seek a third term in next February's election – after months of insisting that he...
Having chosen to push through radical reforms in the government's first weeks, officials are scrambling to address the political consequences
After the policy advisors around President Bola Ahmed Tinubu backed a shock therapy approach to ending fuel subsidies and floating the naira, their next priority is to cushion...
Justice minister Sidiki Kaba – a former head of the International Human Rights Federation – has dismissed critics of the tough crackdown on the protests that followed the...
President Akufo-Addo's sacking of the Auditor-General has been condemned raising questions of accountability
Ghana's highest court has ruled unconstitutional President Nana Akufo-Addo's demand three years ago for the Auditor-General, Daniel Domelevo, to go on leave. After Domelevo complied under heavy pressure,...
Ending subsidies, selling oil assets and devaluing the naira are on the agenda as the new government goes for growth
Proclaiming the end of fuel subsidies at his inauguration on 29 May and his intention to merge the multiple exchange rates for the beleaguered naira, President Bola Tinubu...
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The central bank governor's days appear to be numbered as President Tinubu changes economic tack – and lines up a handy scapegoat
Making clear his position on Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Godwin Emefiele's future, President Bola Tinubu announced the bank needed 'house-cleaning' in his inaugural speech on 29 May....
Senegalese are in shock after lethal clashes between police and crowds protesting the 1 June conviction of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko for 'corrupting the morals' of 20-year-old masseuse...
The new government has to forestall the threat of hyper-inflation and the economy slipping back into recession
Within hours of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu proclaiming 'the end of fuel subsidies' at his inauguration on 29 May, the pump price for gasoline had almost tripled at...
Vol 64 No 12 |
- CÔTE D'IVOIRE
Local elections have been brought forward to avoid clashing with the Africa Cup of Nations but offering just as many fireworks as old rivals vie for key posts
The stakes are high. The coming local elections must be flawless, unlike the violence-tainted 2020 presidentials, not only for the sake of the country's reputation but to reassure...
Sacked director of Ogoniland project spells out corruption concerns in rebuke to environment ministry
Shell is withholding payments towards the Ogoniland clean-up until it sees a full accounting for the disputed contracts issued to date, Africa Confidential has learned from sources in...
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After losing a by-election, the opposition NDC is crafting its campaign on government failure ahead of next year's elections
The IMF approval of a US$3 billion bailout to support Ghana's ailing economy is being held up as a victory by the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP), but...
Accra has secured concessions from the multilateral banks as well as China in exchange for promises on debt
Although West Africa's second largest economy had been expected to receive an International Monetary Fund deal in the coming months, the IMF's 17 May announcement – that its...
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Slowing inflation and a strengthening cedi after the IMF credit will help the ruling party’s election campaign
Ghana's US$3 billion bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund will not be painless, and comes with demands for a diet of structural reforms and spending cuts. Key...
The incoming President's feted dealmaking skills will be tested in the courts and in the legislature
Ahead of the scheduled 29 May inauguration of President-elect Bola Tinubu, there are two key procedural hurdles: he has to resolve the fight over the leadership of both...
The outcome of the firebrand oppositionist's trial could transform the face of politics, and may open the way to other contenders
More than two years after he was first charged with raping the masseuse Adji Sarr and then making death threats, Ousmane Sonko, the charismatic leader of the Pastef...
The Bayelsa State Oil and Environmental Commission (BSOEC) launched its much-anticipated report on 60 years' worth of oil pollution in the state, where local companies now produce about...
The European Union's diplomatic service, the European External Action Service, has earmarked four countries, one from each continent, as 'key strategic partners' as it seeks to boost its...
The removal of the head of HYPREP is the latest effort to clear resistance to wholesale plunder of the $1 billion Delta anti-pollution programme
The head of the government agency charged with cleaning up decades of oil pollution by Shell in Ogoniland, Ferdinand Giadom, was summarily sacked without cause by President Muhammadu...
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Facing rows over resources and state finances, the new government isn't prioritising the census
Postponing the planned national census due to run from 3 to 7 May is the latest policy decision by the outgoing administration of President Muhammadu Buhari to be...
Vol 64 No 9 |
- BURKINA FASO
The latest captain to run the country wants militias, censorship and army discipline to save the nation from the jihadists, and he doesn’t want help
Military junta leader Captain Ibrahim Traoré is setting out his programme for victory in the war against militant jihadists, who have taken 40% of the country, killed thousands...
The military government of Col Assimi Goïta is in negotiations with North Korea to build a munitions factory in Dialakorobougou, 20 kilometres from Bamako, according to a military...
Veteran former Prime Minister Idrissa Seck has confirmed his plans to make a fourth bid for the presidency at the 2024 elections.
Boosting revenues, ending fuel subsidies and the multiple exchange rate regime will be priorities for the new government
The opening gambit of Bola Tinubu's Presidency has been played – almost two months before he moves into the villa at Aso Rock. On 5 April, outgoing Finance...
Geopolitical shifts and multilateral concessions at the Washington meetings could speed up Accra's IMF deal
In the end, the sceptics were correct. President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo's promise in his State of the Nation speech that the US$3 billion IMF Extended Credit Facility...
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The government's debt exchange deal piles up pressure on the banks and the wider economy
After much lobbying and protest, Ghana's pension funds avoided the onerous terms of the government's domestic debt exchange finalised in February. Few others in finance were celebrating with...
Despite a near hung parliament, the opposition has done little to challenge the government
An evenly split Parliament between the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition, National Democratic Congress (NDC) appears not to have resulted in greater parliamentary oversight over...
Vol 64 No 8 |
- GUINEA
- MINING
Dismissing the ruling as 'politically motivated', the mining tycoon is to make one last attempt to overturn his conviction – at the Swiss federal court
The Swiss appeal court's upholding of a guilty verdict for corruption against mining tycoon Beny Steinmetz nearly ends the decade-long legal fight over Guinea's Simandou iron ore resources,...
With less half the voters on the lowest turnout since 1999 supporting him, the president-elect has a credibility problem
Questions about the national and state elections are stubbornly taking centre-stage with daily demonstrations in the capital at which the ruling All Progressives' Congress (APC) is accused of...
Dakar and other cities are facing a wave of protest against the government, tougher living conditions and the president’s plan to extend his tenure
Searing criticism from what he had hoped would be a helpful government in Washington is the latest blow for President Macky Sall as opposition mounts against his government...
The appointment of three new members to the seven-member electoral commission has prompted concerns that the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) is packing the institution ahead of what...
Peter Obi's Labour Party will face fierce local fights as incumbent governors defend their fiefdoms after last month's political upsets
The outcome of the elections in 28 of Nigeria's 36 states on 18 March will have more effect on the daily lives of most voters than the disputed...
The Ghana Armed Forces have come under fierce public criticism following an apparent vigilante operation they conducted at Ashaiman, a densely populated town near Tema, in the Greater...
The opposition is revelling in criticisms of the government's economic management by the Auditor-General, who is in the spotlight again
In a rowdy session in parliament on 8 March, President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo used his state of the nation address to explain how the government planned to...
Opposition contenders question the ruling party candidate's victory in elections marred by technical failures, sporadic violence and a historically low turnout
The next act of Nigeria's presidential election drama has started with fire and fury. At one end of the stage stands the official winner, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose...
The controversial president has a poor governing record, but no candidate looks strong enough to defeat him in October’s poll
The temperature is rising fast in the run-up to Liberia's parliamentary and presidential election in October. Last month, President George Weah used the occasion of his sixth annual...
A Federal High Court in Nigeria has ordered the government's flagship environmental remediation agency to stop work and publish its accounts.
A botched attempt at revenge was the conclusion of São Tomé's Public Prosecutor following its investigation of the failed assault of the military barracks of 25 November.
The five ruling colonels are digging in for a long stay – but neither Wagner's mercenaries nor the army are stemming the jihadist tide
The military junta is making itself comfortable. That much was clear on 21 February when the National Transitional Council (NTC), a hastily convened rubber-stamp parliament of 120 placemen...
Peter Obi easily wins the opinion polls but the elections on the ground are still wide open
If many of the local and international opinion polls on Nigeria's presidential elections on 25 February prove accurate, then Peter Obi, the multi-millionaire banker standing on the Labour...
Campaigners for the ruling party's presidential candidate accuse the central bank of sabotage days ahead of the election
A desperate scarcity of banknotes and fuel are adding a final note of drama to what looks like the most open election ever in Nigeria. Whatever the merits...
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The latest round of litigation on pollution in the Niger Delta sees Shell digging in its heels and denying any legal responsibility
The London-based law firm Leigh Day is pushing ahead with a case in the London High Court on behalf of members of the Ogale and Bille communities in...
The Algiers peace accord is in danger of unravelling as both Mali and Burkina Faso struggle under new challenges from the jihadists
While Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea talk of grand plans for diplomatic and economic cooperation, the already desperate Sahel security crisis has taken another turn for the worse.
Facing chronic fuel shortages and a contentious reissue of the national currency, politicians search for targets to blame
The country's economic emergency in all its facets – chronic fuel shortage, protests against a politicised redesign and reissue of the naira, and the threat of ballooning national...
Ouagadougou is set to be the next military regime to invite Russian mercenaries after giving France a month for its troops to leave
Captain Ibrahim Traoré's regime has brushed aside the concerns of fellow members of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) and gone even further than Mali and...
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Vol 64 No 2 |
- NIGERIA
- BRITAIN
Of Nigeria's presidential candidates so far to set out their stall at London's Chatham House think tank, the Labour Party's Peter Obi easily won on points on 16...
There's no date yet for the ruling New Patriotic Party's (NPP) presidential primaries but prospective candidates are preparing for the elections required within 12 months of the next...
Having broken the government's monopoly in the national assembly, winning 28 of the 109 seats in last Sunday's legislative elections, the Démocrates have established themselves as the principal...
The president's camp is preparing for the 2024 elections and the challenge from Sonko and the growing opposition movement
Ousmane Sonko, the charismatic leader of the Pastefs les Patriotes opposition party, is in full campaign mode for the presidential elections due in early 2024 – although President...
Cash-fuelled presidential campaigning dominates politics as economy falters and security frays
Presidential and national assembly elections on 25 February presage sweeping changes. Among 11 million new voters, most of them aged between 18 and 34, many are frustrated with...
Pushed into a U-turn as it negotiates a $3 billion bailout with the IMF, the governing party’s credibility has crashed
Militants of the main opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) have a spring in their step in the new year as they gear up to fight the December 2024...
Political fights over where the cuts should fall are testing finance minister Ofori-Atta's staying power and may prolong the crisis
The speed at which the IMF and finance minister Ken Ofori-Atta's treasury team agreed a provisional deal for a US$3 billion bailout in mid-December after intensive talks and...