Stopping the coup in Benin could mark a turnaround in the fortunes of the Ecowas regional bloc after a spate of military takeovers since 2020
Recent history gave Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu every reason to stop the attempted putsch in neighbouring Benin on 7 December. Having cut his political teeth campaigning against...
Vol 66 No 25 |
- MALI
- TURKEY
Lucrative contracts with a Turkish arms dealer point to graft and power struggles in Bamako, even as jihadists edge closer
Apart from keeping itself in power by bartering resources, it returned three tonnes of gold after resolving a two-year dispute with Canada’s Barrick gold this month, the Bamako...
Surging markets, a sweeping audit and deepening conflict are reshaping the battle for mining’s spoils – behind the boom lies a scramble for influence
A far-reaching audit of large mining companies, launched last month, has rattled Ghana’s booming gold sector. Some had expected stricter controls on taxes and royalties but questioned these...
Despite being accused of plundering the state and murdering opponents Yahya Jammeh is coming home and little stands in his way
After nine years in exile in Equatorial Guinea, Yahya Jammeh, the dictator who ruled Gambia for 22 years with an iron fist, has announced he is returning to...
Military help led by Nigeria and allies reinforced the regional bloc’s stand against the anti-Talon plotters
It is now clear that the thwarted coup in Cotonou was much more violent than first reported and determinedly targeted Benin’s President Patrice Talon and the most senior...
Presidential allies blame political agendas and sabotage within the military for failure to protect citizens
In early November, officers in the Department of State Services received intelligence about a planned abduction at Government Girls’ Comprehensive Secondary School (GGCSS) in Maga, Kebbi State. They...
Vol 66 No 24 |
- GUINEA BISSAU
The military has overthrown the president but his allies remain in place – prompting some regional leaders to suspect skulduggery on all sides
Three of the pillars of President Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s regime threw him out of office on 26 November, just a day before the results of a general election...
Debt pressures, IMF talks and partisan rivalries expose the fragility of a leadership once seen as unbreakable
After a public rift that shook their political brotherhood and threatened crucial negotiations with the IMF, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko have stepped back...
The Supreme Court in Banjul is expected to hear in one to two weeks’ time the plea of the sacked Auditor-General Modou Ceesay that he was illegally removed...
Activists are trying to push out the chair of the Electoral Commission and the Special Prosecutor as frustration grows with the government’s anti-corruption plan
The better news about the economy hasn’t translated into quieter politics as President John Dramani Mahama’s government and the ruling National Democratic Congress face growing pressure on corruption,...
The 2026 plan cuts the deficit again, using savings from lower debt-service to pay for higher social spending, winning market plaudits
Ghana’s economy is on the mend. Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson set out the 2026 budget on 13 November claiming to have stabilised macroeconomic conditions. Treasury data showed...
Instead of attacking the government on insecurity and economic woes, the opposition wastes its energy on factional battles
Two resonant images sum up the decline and fall of multi-party politics in Nigeria. The first is of the headquarters of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) at its...
Vol 66 No 22 |
- NIGERIA
- SAHEL
Abuja is forging fresh partnerships as jihadist violence spreads and trust frays in the wake of military rule
With security collapsing across the Sahel and imperilling West Africa, Nigeria is pushing to rebuild military partnerships with the ruling juntas in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali –...
Food prices, shrinking purchasing power and insecurity underscore the disconnect between praise for reforms and everyday hardship
Abuja’s Debt Management Office ploughed on with a US$2.25 billion Eurobond launch on 5 November, despite market ructions triggered by United States President Donald Trump’s threats of military...
Vol 66 No 22 |
- CÔTE D'IVOIRE
After the Constitutional Court confirmed President Alassane Ouattara’s win with 89.77% of the vote, opposition parties are focusing on the legislative elections due on 27 December. First to...
With critical gold mines in the Kayes region already under threat, the militants are now targeting critical commercial axes
After assaulting the main western trade corridor to Bamako from Dakar last month, jihadist fighters have now extended their campaign to the key southern artery from Abidjan as...
UN experts warn that international oil companies’ opaque sales to local consortia flout environmental and human rights laws
The tortuous bargaining between international oil companies – Shell, TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil – and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s government over new investments has hit a succession of legal...
Mobile phones started buzzing on 17 October about a thwarted coup plot, fired up by a story on Sahara Reporters on the arrest of 16 officers ‘over issues...
Vol 66 No 21 |
- CÔTE D'IVOIRE
The president’s strong economic record has been tarnished by corruption claims and a determination to quash dissent from any quarter
President Alassane Ouattara looks set to cruise to a fourth term at polls on 25 October with challengers weak or banned and his ruling party flush with cash...
Vol 66 No 19 |
- CÔTE D'IVOIRE
Veteran Trump-supporting lobbyists have found themselves pitted against one another in Abidjan, in an unlikely subplot to Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential election campaign. Parti Démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI)...
After being accused of favouring relatives and friends with state-backed rice deals and discounted bank sales, the President has summarily sacked the Auditor-General
When police forcibly removed Auditor-General, Modou Ceesay from the National Audit Office on 15 September they triggered youth-led protests in which several demonstrators were arrested as fighting spilled...
Finance minister Romuald Wadagni has been named joint presidential candidate of the governing l’Union progressiste pour le renouveau (UPR) and Bloc Républicain (BR) for April 2026 – confirming...
The President’s dismissal of Gertrude Torkornoo raises more questions about independent institutions and executive power
The fight over President John Dramani Mahama’s dismissal of Chief Justice Gertrude Sackey Torkornoo on 1 September has prompted calls for constitutional reform across the political spectrum. Concerns...
The president’s plan would double the central government share of the state oil company’s profits to over 80%
As tensions deepen between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the managing director of the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Bashir Bayo Ojulari, the government plans to claw...
Moscow courts the three juntas with anti-western rhetoric and promises of gold refineries and nuclear power but is struggling to counter insurgents
On 14 August, the defence ministers of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – Generals Sadio Camara, Célestin Simporé and Salifou Modi – were in Moscow for talks with...
Northern states have been hit hardest by jihadist insurgents together with banditry and kidnapping alongside murderous herder-farmer clashes
When Nigeria’s National Security Advisor, Nuhu Ribadu, announced the arrest of two senior fighters affiliated with Al Qaida on 17 August, officials cited it as another success for...
Vol 66 No 17 |
- NIGER
- SAHEL
After failing to repel determined jihadist attacks, the Sahel juntas crack down on internal dissent
The latest round of arrests in Mali, amid reports of a planned putsch on 10 August, looks unlikely to change the centralisation of power in Bamako or in...
The country’s shrewdest political strategist has to contend with multiple schisms in the 36 states
On most measures, President Bola Tinubu has emphatically improved the position of the ruling All Progressives Congress in Nigeria – despite the unpopularity of many of its economic...
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Government is silent after allies of mining mogul Beny Steinmetz accuse it of political meddling and say they’ve run out of cash
After an ugly fight with President Julius Maada Bio’s government over working conditions and back pay, Chief Executive of Koidu Limited, Dag Cramer is closing the country’s richest...
Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar sense a new chance but the odds are still stacked against them
Strategists in the ruling All Progressives Congress and sundry opposition parties are scurrying to adapt to the changing political conditions after the demise of Muhammadu Buhari at 82...
Gambia has failed again to enact a new constitution after parliament rejected a draft bill on 7 July – a move that clears the way for President Adama...
Vol 66 No 15 |
- CÔTE D'IVOIRE
Behind the spectacle and strength of the ruling party is its dependence on one man and an opposition in retreat
Leadership succession and regional stability were set to dominate the informal talks between Côte d’Ivoire’s President Alassane Dramane Ouattara and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in Paris on...
Nigériens are two weeks away from the second anniversary of the putsch that deposed President Mohamed Bazoum, breaking military partnerships with France, the United States and the European...
A report by Gambia’s lawmakers has blamed three state officials for interfering with a police investigation into the importation and sale of 36,000 tonnes of sanctioned Russian diesel...
Top officials from the former NPP government are being investigated, as the new administration tries to sharpen its political lead
In Ghana, ‘non-aggression pacts’ – informal understandings between senior figures in the two main political parties not to pursue grand corruption cases after a change in government –...
Vol 66 No 13 |
- GHANA
- WHO'S WHO
‘The men in green are back, and prospects for democratic consolidation have dimmed significantly,’ warned Afrobarometer’s Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi in a Brookings Institution essay in June. ‘Africa’s democratic project...
São Tomé’s Audit Office (Tribunal de Contas) released a report on 19 May examining the implementation of a 25-year PPP agreement signed by Patrice Trovoada’s government in October...
The trial of five ex-ministers for misuse of public funds will test government’s pledge of an independent judiciary
The youngish government of President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, 45, and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, 50, is at a crossroads seven months after winning a super-majority in the parliament....
A surge in attacks on army bases leaves security forces overstretched and civilians more vulnerable
Grim casualty figures from recent insurgent attacks on army garrisons across central and northern Mali have exposed the cost of junta leader, General Assimi Goïta’s decision to reject...
After two years of harsh reforms, the government aims to win back support with the country’s biggest ever public spending programme
As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was preparing to mark two years in power on 29 May, his allies in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) declared the 73-year-old...
Tax cuts, an easing of the debt burden and promises of anti-corruption probes fire up the president’s base
It was the depth of Ghana’s economic crisis that swept John Dramani Mahama and the National Democratic Congress to such a decisive victory in the presidential and parliamentary...
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These radical reforms will generate more revenue and help the president’s business allies but may weaken several state governors
With the passing of four tax bills this month – described as the most radical revenue reforms in Nigeria’s history – President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has won some...
Vol 66 No 10 |
- SIERRA LEONE
President Julius Maada Bio’s wife, Fatima Maada Bio, has bought a string of luxury properties in the Gambia worth over US$2 million since 2020, according to an investigation...
After failing to capitalise on deepening hardships and insecurity, opposition governors and lawmakers are defecting to the ruling party
As a political boss, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has run rings around his rivals. They lack his skills and tactical acuity but most of all they are just...
Vol 66 No 9 |
- BURKINA FASO
Burkinabés see the reality of military defeats, a cratering economy and growing authoritarianism despite millions spent on propaganda
Captain Ibrahim Traoré’s regime in Ouagadougou has uncovered yet another ‘plot’ showing that Burkina Faso’s security crisis is deepening in many different ways.
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Vol 66 No 9 |
- CÔTE D'IVOIRE
The opposition prepares mass protests after the PDCI’s presidential candidate is taken off the voters’ roll
The main opposition Parti démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI) is in crisis after an Ivorian court removed its presidential candidate Tidjane Thiam from the electoral register. The court...
On 23 April, Niger advanced its mineral development by partnering with Emirati firm Suvarna Royal Gold Trading LLC. The deal, formalised in Niamey, establishes Royal Gold Niger SA,...
The pact has been ratified, expanding Moscow’s reach in the Gulf of Guinea and upsetting the US although it is retreating from the region
On 3 April Prime Minister Américo Ramos of the Acção Democrática Independente (ADI), approved a military cooperation agreement with Russia, first signed in St. Petersburg a year ago...
The sudden release of former dictator Camara fits with the junta leader’s plan to silence party politics and fashion a presidential election victory
One is a self-promoted general – Mamady Doumbouya, head of the military junta, the Comité national du rassemblement pour le développement (CNRD), in power since September 2021. The...
Vol 66 No 8 |
- SIERRA LEONE
Ruling party hopefuls are manoeuvring for the presidentials in 2028 – but there may be no vacancy
Less than two years into his second – and final – five-year presidential term, Julius Maada Bio is mulling both his legacy and a succession plan for 2028....
Determined to control the state’s politics and oil before the 2027 elections, the President has suspended an opposition governor
In the latest twist in the power struggle to control Rivers State, the two leading protagonists – Governor Siminilayi Fubara and his predecessor Nyesom Wike – both appear...
Investigative journalist Anas chalks up an historic win in New Jersey court against New Patriotic Party presidential contender
A United States court has awarded Ghanaian investigative journalist Anas Aremeyaw Anas US$18 million in damages, including $8m in punitive damages, after ruling that populist former New Patriotic...
After winding up the tortuous debt deal in June, the government will be hemmed in by creditors and multilateral banks
The end of Accra’s debt default tunnel is nigh. After signing a memorandum of understanding with the official creditor committee, Ghana is forecast to end the restructuring of...
The Chief Immigration Officer was sacked for his links to Jos Leijdekkers but some diplomats believe the convicted drug smuggler is still being protected in Sierra Leone
Alusine Kanneh, Sierra Leone’s Chief Immigration Officer, has been dismissed as questions about his relationship with notorious cocaine smuggler Jos Leijdekkers have mounted and evidence of past dishonesty...
Above all, civilian governments in the regional bloc want cooperation with the military leaders against jihadist insurgents
Through his visits to the military rulers of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso in the week ending 14 March, Ghana’s President John Dramani Mahama may have helped thaw...
Vol 66 No 6 |
- BURKINA FASO
The military ruler depends on a corps of ideological supporters who back his ambitions, but the regime is increasingly threatened by jihadists
It’s not even two years since the 34-year-old Captain Ibrahim Traoré overthrew his mentor, the previous military leader, Lieutenant-Colonel Paul Henri Damiba, with whom he had worked to...
After promising to strengthen public finances, the new government is making difficult trade-offs on tax and borrowing
Reading the 2025 budget to parliament on 11 March, Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson kept to the economic reset script and promises of a far-reaching National Economic Dialogue...
Tidjane Thiam, a minister under former President Henri Konan Bédié, left Côte d’Ivoire for a lucrative business career after Bédié’s ouster in a 1999 military coup. During that...
After 20 years in power, the president is avoiding term limits by becoming an executive prime minister with no constraints on his rule
After launching a rights charter, opposition parties and civil society groups are campaigning against the new constitution coming into effect on 6 May. One transitional year after its...
Officials in Abuja hope the country’s recalculated GDP can help recover its ranking and prove the government’s harsh reforms are working
A full-throated public relations campaign is under way to show that President Bola Tinubu’s reforms are bearing fruit after two troubling years with most Nigerians hit by a...
The new government has made a U-turn on the oil field battle between Italy’s Eni and former political favourite Springfield
On 25 February, Energy Minister John Jinapor cancelled a directive by the previous New Patriotic Party government which sought to unitise two adjacent oil fields: one operated by...
The new government mulls privatising its electricity and water companies as well as prisons
Cruising to power on promise-packed manifesto, John Dramani Mahama has made several radical moves in his first two months in office, but his plan to sell off the...
The appointment of Yusuf Maitama Tuggar as President Bola Tinubu’s Foreign Minister in May 2023 was one of the more imaginative cabinet choices. A former journalist and ambassador...
President Joseph Boakai continues to splash the cash on lobbyists in Washington, DC. But this time he has agreed to pay more than US$500,000 to a former United...
The opening of the Museum of West African Art (MOWAA) in Edo State’s Benin City won plaudits. But few noticed the absence of the objects it was designed...
A diplomatic row is brewing after the revelations about Jos Leijdekkers’s drugs empire
Top officials in Freetown have expressed annoyance at the time it took the Dutch government to apply for the extradition of convicted cocaine smuggler Jos Leijdekkers, despite telling...
Vol 66 No 4 |
- GUINEA BISSAU
With his close ally General Biaguê, the President has all but destroyed the country’s democracy within five years
Tensions are rising between President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and opposition groupings over the date he is due to leave office. Embaló insists it is 4 September – that...
One of Europe’s most wanted criminals is the partner of one of the President’s daughters and has transferred his operations to Freetown. An Africa Confidential Special Report By Josef Skrdlik and Andrew Weir
Sierra Leone has been in a state of shock ever since one of Freetown’s most astonishing urban myths was confirmed as fact – that one of Europe’s most...
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After the youth revolution in Dakar last year, an octogenarian may be running in the Ivorian elections
With voting nine months away, the campaigning and political tractations ahead of Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential elections are under way. The outcome will reverberate across the region. President Alassane...
Political pressure is mounting on Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics ahead of the imminent release of its GDP rebasing data. The statistical exercise could more than double the...
Everybody is losing as the Sahelian juntas break with the Ecowas bloc – except for the jihadi militias
The crowds in Bamako, Ouagadougou and Niamey celebrating their countries’ break with the regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) on 29 January belie the...
The fight over one of the world’s biggest gold mines points to the changing balance of power in the region
The stand-off between General Assimi Goïta’s military regime and Canada’s Barrick Gold has reached a critical point with the mining conglomerate suspending work at the Loulou-Gounkoto complex after...
The challenge is clear – form an alliance or risk leaving President Tinubu as the frontrunner in the 2027 elections
With electioneering expected to start in 2026, this year will test the opposition’s resolve to form a mega party that could unseat President Bola Tinubu and his All...
Creditors and party patrons could derail promises to shrink the state and cut taxes while holding back the 24-hour economy plan
On 7 January, thousands of Ghanaians thronged Black Star Square in central Accra for John Dramani Mahama’s ‘second coming’, as many were calling his inauguration and return to...
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Local companies taking over onshore production and international offshore plays won’t plug the revenue holes
Widespread scepticism greeted President Bola Tinubu’s ‘Budget of Restoration’ when he presented it to the National Assembly on 18 December – mainly due to doubts about the oil...