Abuja is struggling with slowing growth and spiralling debt demands, and a new plan to replace old banknotes looks set to create further chaos
Ahead of February's election Nigeria's economy is flagging. Usually, governments can rely on help from their supporters for a pre-election boost, but this time it is different. Real...
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Central Bank of Nigeria governor Emefiele insists that his interest rate hikes are controlling inflation but a new president will face greater challenges
The Central Bank of Nigeria's monetary policy committee (MPC) faces tough choices as the year-on-year inflation rate has reached 21%. Food price inflation is even higher, at 23.7%....
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For the first time in four years, Béninois voters should have a free choice to elect a new legislature in January
The country's constitutional system is starting to work again despite President Patrice Talon's authoritarian instincts. Last month the Constitutional Court ordered the Commission Électorale Nationale Autonome (CENA) to...
With no accounts or tenders published, disquiet continues to grow over the companies HYPREP has contracted for remediation work
Concerns over the Hydrocarbon Pollution Remediation Project (HYPREP) are growing among Ogoni activists and politicians and civil society organisations against pollution, backing the already reported worries of the...
Nigeria has enlisted its former Environment Minister to keep UNEP on board while doubts on remediation contractors increase
Nigerian officialdom is doing its best to prevent the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) severing its consultancy with the Hydrocarbon Pollution Remediation Project (HYPREP) over chronic fraud and...
Vol 63 No 24 |
- CÔTE D'IVOIRE
Eight years after being transferred to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, and almost two years after his final acquittal for crimes against humanity, Charles Blé...
In the early hours of 25 November, heavy gunfire was heard in the military district in São Tomé when four men, Sãotomean veterans of apartheid South Africa's infamous...
Government borrowing has been soaring, and loans from the central bank are many times over the statutory limit
Lower tax revenues due to plummeting recorded crude oil output, coupled with several expansionary budgets, mean that Nigerian government borrowing has been rocketing as the country heads for...
The sacking of Minister of State for Finance Charles Adu Boahen on 14 November briefly moved the spotlight from the substantive Minister of Finance Ken Ofori-Atta who has...
Ruling party MPs call for the head of the finance minister, as critics blame corruption for the plunging cedi and rising prices
Under growing pressure from within and outside his New Patriotic Party (NPP), President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo is trying to mollify critics of the government's economic strategy by...
Vol 63 No 22 |
- MALI
- FRANCE
- SAHEL
Foreign Minister Diop's attacks on France and peacekeepers meets sceptical silence at UN Security Council
After accusing France of supporting Islamist militia groups at a UN Security Council meeting on 18 October, Bamako's foreign minister Abdoulaye Diop dialled down the rhetoric five days...
Theft from the billion-dollar oil clean-up in Ogoniland is so bad that the operation's chief architect, the UN Environment Programme, wants to quit
The UN Environment Programme is set for a bitter break with Nigeria over the clean-up of pipeline spills in the Niger delta despite almost 15 years of close...
Worries over the repercussions of a wide-ranging debt restructuring are slowing the government’s negotiations for a $3 billion credit from the IMF
The markets have turned against President Nana Akufo-Addo's New Patriotic Party (NPP) government, pushing up bond yields and eroding the value of the cedi against the dollar by...
Thirteen years to the day after the Conakry stadium massacre that left 157 people dead, the trial officially opened against those held responsible. Three men the United Nations...
A younger, better-informed and more demanding electorate is challenging the state and mainstream politicians to run fairer elections
Every week or so a new scandal about a plan to steal the national elections next year hits the headlines and social media. One of the latest claims...
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Civil society groups are up in arms about the Auditor-General's refusal to use his powers to recover $1.7bn in misappropriated public funds
A coalition of civil society groups is protesting the unwillingness of the Auditor-General, Johnson Asiedu, to act on his latest annual audit of government expenditure, published last month,...
Vol 63 No 20 |
- NIGER
- SENEGAL
Australian-Romanian businessman Frank Timis, a veteran of stock exchange fraud and corruption scandals, is charging into agriculture, snapping up vast landholdings in Senegal and on the desert's edge...
Mali's military junta plans to militarise the police and eliminate the right of police officers to strike and unionise, diplomatic sources have told Africa Confidential. Discussions are under...
The opposition Acção Democrática Independente (ADI) of former Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada has won the general election with 46.8% of the vote. ADI polled 45.5% in 2018. On...
Vol 63 No 20 |
- BURKINA FASO
New leader Captain Traoré says security crisis forced his faction to seize power but it could work with Russia, Turkey or the US military
On 3 October, a day after he was confirmed in power in Ouagadougou, new military leader Captain Ibrahim Traoré told a sceptical audience that he understood the urgency...
Electoral setbacks have left Macky Sall with a razor-thin majority, while he faces outcry over a suspected third-term bid
'A sorry spectacle'. That is how president Macky Sall qualified the scenes of fighting lawmakers at the opening of the Assemblée nationale, Senegal's 165-strong parliament, on 12 September....
Dropping earlier arguments that the evidence of corruption was fake, the mining magnate is appealing against his conviction by redefining bribery
Punishing foreign bribery is still a novel idea in Switzerland. There have been just 18 convictions since it became a crime in 2000, before which it was tax-deductible....
Bamako's 10 July detention of 49 Ivorian soldiers who had flown in to change the guard at the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (Minusma) airport...
It was no coincidence that the Front nationale pour la défense de la constitution chose 5 September, the day of the first anniversary of the coup that toppled...
Vol 63 No 18 |
- GUINEA
- MINING
Prosecuting Beny Steinmetz, formerly one of the biggest mining magnates in Africa, has become a test case for Switzerland's efforts to tackle cases of foreign corruption. But it...
Both the ruling party and an outsider candidate may benefit from Atiku Abubakar's mis-steps
The flurry of secret meetings between senior Nigerian politicians in Paris and London this week points to trouble for presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar and his Peoples' Democratic Party...
The latest US sanctions against Liberian officials target the President's closest allies after ever louder complaints of grand corruption since he came to power in 2018
The spotlight on corruption at the highest levels of government in Monrovia suddenly shone brightly on 15 August when the United States Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control...
Plans for a National Cathedral and to revamp a monument to independence leader Kwame Nkrumah are becoming a political battleground
President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo described the project to build a National Cathedral in Accra as 'an opportunity to redeem a pledge I made to [God] before I...
After breaking into a prison in the capital and killing elite security officers, Islamic State fighters claim they are now targeting President Buhari
As Islamist militants launch deadly assaults on the outskirts of Abuja and the country groans under a hydra-headed security crisis, enraged opposition senators have issued an ultimatum to...
Egypt plans to withdraw its combat convoy units from the Mission multidimensionnelle intégrée des Nations unies pour la stabilisation au Mali (Minusma) UN peacekeeping force in Mali on...
Final results of elections to the 165-seat national assembly are yet to be confirmed – but the 31 July polls have delivered a major setback to the ruling...
As US officials fret over Ouagadougou falling into Moscow's orbit, Ari Ben-Menashe offers arms and public relations services to the regime
The junta under Lt Col Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba has run out of ideas as Islamist insurgents step up attacks against towns and villages, as well as mines and...
The government's U-turn on a bailout boosts the opposition in the short term but raises bigger questions about the economy's structure
On 13 July, after six days of talks with the government, the International Monetary Fund referred to Ghana's 'challenging economic and social situation' – code for the multiplicity...
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Accra's return to the IMF has been praised by the ratings agencies and could trigger cheaper loans – but at the cost of wide-ranging budget reviews
The latest official budget data, for the first quarter, suggests Ghana was already overshooting this year's budget deficit targets before a second quarter when the full impact of...
The depth of the country's crises is forcing voters to rethink their choices – to the great benefit of the former governor of Anambra state
Millionaire bankers make improbable revolutionaries, especially in Nigeria. But Peter Obi, the geeky former governor of Anambra state, is upending the political establishment's complacency about next year's presidential...
The regime in Bamako raised hopes by promising elections, but then stoked a new crisis with the UN peacekeeping force
Hardly had it been announced that West African leaders were lifting sanctions against Mali's military regime, when a new crisis flared, as the authorities arrested 49 Ivorian soldiers...
Chinese mining companies are under growing pressure in Africa, as they face fresh demands from governments over payments and infrastructure related to globally strategic operations. Disputes in Guinea...
Vol 63 No 15 |
- BURKINA FASO
The junta invited the ousted dictator back to the capital, defying court verdicts and enraging the public. But some of the elite still have time for him
Looking frail and disoriented, Blaise Compaoré returned to Ouagadougou on 7 July for the first time since a popular revolt eight years ago swept him out of power...
With a boost from the ruling party, Bola Tinubu bets on a Muslim-Muslim ticket as Peter Obi is set to pick up votes from Lagos and the south-west
The longest-ever presidential election campaign in Nigerian history is into its next, more intense phase after the three leading candidates – Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Bola Ahmed...
Spiralling prices, public debt and joblessness make living standards the top issue in the presidential race
A month after their emergence as presidential candidates, the economic programmes of Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar extolling the virtues of untrammelled market economics face more serious scrutiny...
Bamako isolates itself further by restricting UN peacekeeping operations while giving free rein to Wagner group
After several months of provoking and prolonging disputes with numerous partners, Mali's transitional government has found a new entity to pick a fight with – the United Nations...
President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo finally decided to open negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for balance-of-payments support, after cabinet had debated the issue for weeks. Finance...
The ruling party's flagbearer brings together democracy campaigners and beneficiaries of the country's most venal dictatorship
This year's Democracy Day celebrations on 12 June were muted, overshadowed by the expensive shenanigans of the national election campaign mixed with a pervasive disenchantment with the political...
With French and European troops leaving, the junta turns its ire on UN peacekeepers and seeks new foreign allies
Malian military ruler Colonel Assimi Goïta is determined to show that his forces can tackle a growing Islamist onslaught, despite the withdrawal of French and European troops, under...
Many suspect a scheme to turn a protected forest into Accra's answer to Central Park are ecologically dangerous and a cover for corruption
A decision by President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo's government to reclassify a large part of the Achimota Forest reserve in Accra – the only urban forest in the...
Ousmane Sonko, co-leader of the opposition Yewwi Askan Wi electoral alliance, promises major protests on 29 June in protest at the killing of protestors by security forces on...
By picking Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar as their flagbearers, the two main parties risk alienating younger voters and extending the political stasis
The ease with which Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar defeated their rivals to win their parties' presidential nominations for next February's elections highlights their similarities – super-rich...
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The Agyapa gold plan appears to be going ahead in the face of complaints that it is corrupt, opaque and undervalues a key national resource
President Nana Akufo-Addo's government is pushing forward with the Agyapa gold plan, under which a state company would register in the British tax haven of Jersey and sell...
Bamako’s withdrawal from the regional bloc came as a shock, and desperate diplomacy will struggle to bring it back to the fold
'The G5 Sahel is dead.' This was the verdict of Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum on 18 May, three days after the Malian military regime announced its withdrawal from...
Vol 63 No 12 |
- MALI
- FRANCE
Bamako's prosecutor has summoned France's former foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian to answer corruption accusations as bilateral ties plummet further
Although he has just been released from a decade of service as one of France's most senior ministers by President Emmanuel Macron, Jean-Yves Le Drian is not expected...
Opposition politicians have lost patience with Guinea's military ruler, and plan to defy a ban on protest rallies
The announcement by Guinea's military junta that it would remain in power until mid-2025, and the imposition of a ban on demonstrations, have been denounced by opposition forces,...
One of the few immutable facts about the presidential primary elections in Abuja is that the deadline by which all parties must submit the names of their candidates...
Opposition candidates are coordinating across rural areas and provincial cities to break the ruling alliance's grip on parliament
Opponents of President Macky Sall are assembling a broad alliance ahead of the parliamentary elections on 31 July. If they are successful, this will influence Sall's calculations about...
All ministers vying for office in next year's elections have been ordered to quit. Bank governor Emefiele is yet to confirm his presidential run
In one executive order the country's presidential contest has been up-ended and a sweeping cabinet reshuffle has been triggered. On 12 May, President Muhammadu Buhari called on political...
With French troops pulling out, and the UN mission at risk, African leaders mull how to fill the security vacuum
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has presented West African governments with hard military choices, by proposing the African Union establish a new force that could replace the United Nations'...
Vol 63 No 10 |
- CÔTE D'IVOIRE
The octogenarian President has lined up a beauty parade of contenders – even as his supporters say he may stand again in 2025
Succession gossip – rarely quiet for long in Abidjan – is simmering after President Alassane Ouattara appointed a new deputy and reshuffled the cabinet and the top ranks...
Africa Confidential presents a Special Report on the Breton tycoon’s growing influence in Africa. Far from quitting the continent, Vincent Bolloré’s business and political interests in Africa are deepening – even as he faces trial in Paris for grand corruption in league with two West African leaders. By Andrew Weir and Nicolas Vescovacci
Billionaire Vincent Bolloré, who has built up monopoly control over some of the biggest container terminals in Africa, is heading back to the French courts with two of...
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Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu – political godfathers turned contenders – may lose out in primaries as alliances shift
The next four weeks will be critical as over 30 contenders compete to become the country's next president – the parties have until 3 June to submit all...
President Carlos Vila Nova has been forced into an embarrassing climb over one of his appointees, raising questions about accountability and ethics at the heart of the government....
Few tears have been shed at the news that Kofi Koduah Sarpong has been retired after five years at the helm of the state oil firm, the Ghana...
Bureaucratic rivalries and vested interests are blocking efforts to hold companies and officials responsible for the ecological destruction of the Niger Delta
Nigeria should meet its OPEC quota, due to rise to 1.753 million barrels a day next month, in a matter of weeks after months of struggling to produce...
Vol 63 No 9 |
- BURKINA FASO
Pierre-Henri Damiba's military regime is managing the politics better than its war against the insurgents
Of the three military regimes in West Africa under pressure to hand over to civilians, Burkina Faso's junta led by Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba is proving the...
Those backing governor Godwin Emefiele for the presidency believe eight years of cheap loans to millions of small farmers will pay dividends
The clamour among senior government officials for Central Bank governor Godwin Emefiele to vie for Nigeria's presidency has its roots in his politically oriented management of the institution...
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The demise of the G5 Sahel Joint Force looks imminent, according to authoritative sources. The force always had a slight presence in the anti-jihadist campaign in the Sahel,...
The latest contender to join the race for the ruling party's presidential nomination may benefit most from his rivals' flaws
After weeks of consultations with the ruling All Progressives' Congress (APC) and state governors, Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo launched his campaign on 11 April to win the party's presidential...
The army is accused of running a ruthless counter-insurgency campaign while authorities clamp down on anyone reporting abuses
Colonel Assimi Goïta's military regime is responding to mounting allegations of human rights violations by the national army and Russian mercenaries of the Wagner Group by lashing out...
Civilians are targeted by national soldiers, Islamists and Russian mercenaries but Bamako's military rulers are determined to end the western security presence
The Commanders of Opération Barkhane and the European Special Forces' Takuba have begun to plan for their withdrawal from Mali. Earlier this month, Barkhane's French commander, General Laurent...
The future of the UN peacekeeping mission is in question – European troops are leaving and evidence is emerging of abuses by the national army and Wagner
A cloud of anxiety hangs over the leaders of the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali as they navigate a hostile military government, tumultuous developments in the Sahel and...
Regardless of mounting scandals, broken promises and economic woes the President is set to win another term in next year's elections
As AC Milan's top striker in the 1990s, George Weah once ran through the opposing team to score a spectacular goal. As his country's President he plans to...
Vol 63 No 5 |
- SIERRA LEONE
Her critics in the ruling party accuse Fatima Bio of plotting to push out Vice-President Jalloh. That could cost votes in next year's elections
To some, First Lady Fatima Bio is a strong, astute politician in her own right, but to others a bully who may have overstepped her bounds in the...
The President is welcoming European troops expelled from Mali while using development projects to counter anti-French sentiment
Among the leaders in the Sahel, President Mohamed Bazoum faces the widest array of opponents from local activists hostile to France's presence to the jihadist insurgents trying to...
The relocation of European troops from Mali to Niger holds political risks for President Bazoum but may avert a wider security breakdown
Geography helps explain why President Mohamed Bazoum overcame his initial reluctance to host European and French troops after they were expelled from Mali this month. Bazoum understood how...
Ruling party prepares for fight with civil society and opposition over new electronic transaction tax
When police in Tema charged Oliver Barker-Vormawor, a convener of the #FixTheCountry movement, with treason felony on 11 February, they fuelled a wider civil society campaign against the...
Locked out of the markets and hit by ratings downgrades, the government is trying to supercharge revenues and hack away at spending
As Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta and his Treasury team rule out any resort to the International Monetary Fund on nationalist grounds, they are taking a different set of...
Vol 63 No 4 |
- GUINEA BISSAU
The President of Africa's pre-eminent narco-state says he was targeted by drug gangs, but his own record is patchy
The President of Guinea Bissau's claims about a failed putsch against him leave many questions unanswered. Around lunchtime on 1 February a group of armed men clad in...
A few days after Africa Confidential reported on the power of financiers in Nigerian politics, a couple of colourful election prospectuses extolling the virtues of African Development Bank...
European governments are rethinking military plans in the Sahel ahead of the grand summit between the African Union and the EU
African and European officials have agreed to move the centre for counter-insurgency operations in the Sahel from Mali to Niger but questions remain about how to manage the...
The country’s military is over-stretched and few trust the political class but its financiers are projecting power like never before
As the race for next year's presidential elections heats up, two political outsiders have been named as contenders with support by some in the top ranks of President...
The die is not cast for President Macky Sall and his Benno Bokk Yaakar (BBY) coalition, as June's legislative elections loom. But the 23 January local polls show...
Vol 63 No 3 |
- BURKINA FASO
After a day of shooting in the capital, Lt Col Damiba takes over brandishing a resignation letter from the ousted leader
The military takeover in Ouagadougou, the third in West Africa in a year, is a challenge to neighbouring governments, especially Niger, and the region's wider security strategy. In...
The ruling party begins the tortuous and divisive task of choosing its presidential candidate for the 2023 elections
On 26 February the ruling All Progressives' Congress (APC) will hold its national convention in Abuja to choose its top officials and set a schedule for the primary...
Mali can learn what to expect from Russian mercenaries by looking at their playbook from the Central African Republic
As Russian mercenaries deploy to Mali to combat Islamist insurgents, the country can expect to be forced to pay an escalating bill, on top of seeing the operatives...
Municipal polls will be a test for the opposition, even as political ambitions divide the ruling party
Dakar will be the big electoral prize on Sunday, when voters elect municipal and departmental councillors in the first local polls in eight years. Control of the capital...
When Senegal's former economy minister Amadou Hott visited Bissau last October, he sparked a furore by telling journalists about a secret deal to distribute revenues that might accrue...
As economic and security woes mount, electoral calculations will shape policy and business strategy
With presidential and national assembly elections due in February 2023, political campaigns will go into overdrive this year as alliances are made and deals struck. Outgoing President Muhammadu...
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With the two parties evenly matched in parliament, the opposition NDC tries for some tactical victories against the government
Eyeing tougher economic conditions, corruption allegations and growing concerns about regional security, the opposition National Democratic Congress reckons it should be able to wrongfoot President Nana Addo Dankwa...
Julius Maada Bio is risking his reputation for probity by suspending the respected Auditor-General, Lara Taylor-Pearce
The charges of impunity, favouritism, corruption and subverting the constitution that President Julius Maada Bio now faces uncomfortably resemble those he flung at his predecessor, President Ernest Bai...
Fruitless dialogue and the violent past of aspiring new leaders raise risks of turmoil despite the country's strong economic base
The country is entering unknown territory, with the three major political parties in various stages of disintegration. The stage is set for a era without the three men...
Chinese mining deals will help the junta fight off international pressure to hold elections, and withstand sanctions
On 27 December, prime minister Mohamed Béavogui presented his government's roadmap back to civilian rule to Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, who has ruled Guinea since a coup last September....
Amid increasingly deadly Islamist attacks, army reform is more urgent than ever and risks of a coup have risen
Reversing the spread of jihadist terrorist violence will be the dominant theme for Burkina Faso's government, especially as it has started to affect three of its four southern...
Hanging on to power, the junta is using Russian mercenaries to counter regional pressure for elections
The colonels, in power since August 2020, seem impervious to international pressure, asserting they may need to stay in power for five more years, despite their earlier promise...
Opposition parties fight back after presidency rejects voter reform as activists mobilise on fuel subsidy and spate of deadly attacks
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is bracing itself for a series of battles in the new year over election rules, fuel subsidies and spending cuts which could...
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