Opposition leaders are edging closer to a multi-ethnic coalition to stand against President Uhuru Kenyatta's governing Jubilee coalition in next August's elections. Coalition for Reform and Democracy leader...
Civil Disobedience Day on 19 December has created a widespread sense of expectation in what could be the biggest show of opposition since the government shot dead over...
The tortuous parliamentary selection needs more time, but the chances are that Hassan Sheikh, despite losing international confidence, will win
No Somali President was elected on 30 November, as scheduled, but it looks now as though the process will be brought to a conclusion by 15 December. It...
The government's response to a year of protest and calls for reform is unlikely to satisfy the opposition or lead to meaningful dialogue
After a year of deep political crisis, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn has reshuffled his cabinet. Yet just a year since the last such moves, these signify no major...
The African Union instituted 'peer review' over a decade ago but the process stalled. Kenya is championing its return
With Ghana, Mauritius and Rwanda, Kenya was one of the the first four countries to be subjected to 'peer review' by fellow African governments at the 2006 African...
President Magufuli is sweeping out corruption but there are some corners the new broom cannot reach
Many heads have rolled since President John Pombe Magufuli came to office just over a year ago. Those who have felt the new intolerance of waste and corruption...
The brief seizure of Qandala by Da'ish supporters was made possible by a rupture in the clan alliances governing Puntland
After long seeking a foothold in Somalia, ISIS's Somali followers finally pulled off a coup by seizing the port of Qandala on 26 October. Capturing the Puntland...
The President pledged to end corruption but a series of scandals in the press and the courts have been embarrassing him
During the 2013 presidential election campaign, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his running-mate William Ruto promised Kenyans that they would end the corruption that had bedevilled previous governments. Despite...
Vol 57 No 23 |
- ETHIOPIA
- SOMALIA
Ethiopia has been withdrawing forces from Somalia in order to help restore order at home, say military observers, and Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen has moved in...
Kenya's foreign minister has taken the lead in the race to become the next leader of the African Union Commission
As regional factions tussle for influence, finding a candidate to replace South Africa's Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as Chairperson of the African Union Commission is proving a tortuous process. The...
Under pressure, President Omer is cutting the power of the party and the army and relying more on his security agents and enforcers
The regime's power-base is shrinking after the formal end of its National Dialogue initiative on 10 October. President Omer Hassan Ahmed el Beshir had hoped that the planned...
Although Kenya's economy will buck the regional trend of low growth, says the World Bank, there are serious problems with its rising debt burden and budget deficit. The...
No compromise with the wave of protest is in view. The elite reckons it can weather the storm
The select of Ethiopia's elites, including opposition leaders, crowded into the Sheraton Addis Hotel on 15 October to discuss the country's fragile ethnic federation and stuttering democratisation. The...
France joins human rights groups to demand an international probe into claims that Khartoum used chemical weapons in its Darfur war
Claims in an Amnesty International report released on 29 September that the Sudanese regime may have used chemical weapons in Darfur will again test United Nations and African...
As the country goes to the polls, the base is broader but will the government that emerges be more legitimate than its predecessors?
Four years ago, general elections took place in Mogadishu in a hectic atmosphere created mostly by an international community determined to show that the political transition was over....
A divided opposition lacking ideas is in danger of handing victory to the ever more confident ruling party
The political battle lines for next August's general elections have been drawn. President Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee Party, which grew out of the governing Jubilee coalition and combines twelve...
After three political attempts to undermine the selection process, the Judicial Service Commission has named a new Chief Justice
An uncontroversial Appeals Court Judge of 64 from Kisii, David Kenani Maraga, has been named as the new Chief Justice. After two weeks of open interviews and three...
Vol 57 No 20 |
- SOMALIA
- UGANDA
In June, General Edward Katumba Wamala, Chief of the Defence Forces, announced plans to withdraw Ugandan troops from Somalia by the end of 2017. That echoed recent signs...
The President wants to root out corruption and regain control of the economy but bad habits prove hard to break
This time last year, John Magufuli was on stage in Karagwe in the north-west doing push-ups before a mass rally of supporters. The idea was to show he...
The President is mobilising his supporters to remove the age limit so he can stay in office
As memories of February's much-criticised election fade, attention turns to the next challenge facing President Yoweri Museveni: his age. Under the 2005 constitution, the upper age limit for...
Vol 57 No 19 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Pressure is mounting on the government after well-documented accounts of murder, rape and theft
Two detailed reports last week on corruption and rights abuses by the Juba government and its adversaries could reinvigorate the peace agreement signed over a year ago. An...
Despite almost constant meetings of the top levels of the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), there are no signs of any real policy shift over the...
The interest rate cap is a blatantly populist measure but banks were risking retaliation against notoriously high profit margins
President Uhuru Kenyatta opted to ditch the advice he received from senior economists at the Central Bank of Kenya and the Treasury and signed the Banking (Amendment) Bill...
Baringo Senator Gideon Moi has announced that he hopes to follow in the footsteps of his father, Daniel arap Moi and become President at the next election. 'I...
Cooperation between Amhara and Oromo oppositionists presents the government with one of its most serious challenges in 20 years
The latest major jolt to Ethiopia's security and its ruling elites has come in the form of a protest in the north-western city of Bahir Dar, the seat...
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Vol 57 No 17 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
The balance shifts as Washington acknowledges Taban as Vice-President and Riek flees to Khartoum
International plans for an expanded peacekeeping force of 4,000 African troops are at odds with the aims of South Sudan's rejigged Transitional Government of National Unity. Juba officials...
Vol 57 No 16 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
An internal party coup against Riek Machar complicates efforts to get the peace deal back on track
The replacement of First Vice-President (FVP) Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon by his former chief negotiator with the government, Taban Deng Gai, on 23 July has thrown regional and...
The recent extrajudicial killings intimidate lawyers and seems designed to deter law suits over police brutality
The gruesome murder of human rights advocate Willie Kimani, his client Josphat Mwenda, a victim of police abuse, and their taxi driver, Joseph Muiruri, has added lawyers to...
Vol 57 No 15 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Although backed by the UN and regional organisations, AU plans to send an intervention force to Juba are fraught with peril
African leaders' plans to send a rapid intervention force to South Sudan to boost security and protect civilians will put them on a collision course with the government...
Saudi Arabia looks certain to join the growing band of nations with military bases in Djibouti, Africa Confidential can reveal. On 12 July, Deputy Chief of General Staff...
The recent violent protests in Gondar city would not be so significant if they had happened anywhere else in the country. But Gondar is in the Amhara heartlands,...
Vol 57 No 14 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
News of government attacks in Wau comes amid international warnings that the peace deal is unravelling
As fresh fighting rages in Bahr el Ghazal, United States' officials are discussing sanctions on the country's two main leaders – President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Vice-President Riek...
The rival leaders are trying to shore up their shaky alliances as hate speech and clashes threaten next year's vote
Both sides are mobilising their foot-soldiers for a bitter campaign although the parliamentary and presidential elections are still 13 months away. The contest will again pit President Uhuru...
In a little-noticed action, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has fined the Ethiopian government for failing to observe the law regarding its fund-raising activities in...
The 1 July decision to drop some of the lesser charges against Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye came as no surprise to most people, since the entire case...
A fight over nominating the Chief Justice could affect the credibility of next year's elections
The Supreme Court narrowly averted a succession crisis just hours before Chief Justice Willy Munywoki Mutunga, 70, hung up his robes for retirement on 16 June. That raises...
Unrest and violence over reform of the electoral commission is keeping divisions deep and tensions high
Intense political manoeuvring and urban unrest are accelerating over whether and how the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) should be reformed before the general elections, scheduled for...
Vol 57 No 12 |
- KENYA
- SOMALIA
Refugee experts and diplomats are divided on whether Kenya is serious about its stated intention to close down the huge Dadaab refugee camp in November, Africa Confidential is...
Vol 57 No 12 |
- EGYPT
- ETHIOPIA
Egypt has reacted with annoyance to further undiplomatic remarks from Ethiopia about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) being a fait accompli that everyone else will have to...
Many thought the saga was over when the cases against William Ruto and Joshua arap Sang were dropped. Not so
President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto are battling the International Criminal Court to prevent new cases from arising against them in the future – or for...
Vol 57 No 11 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
The shooting by soldiers of a Slovakian missionary on 16 May highlights the fragility of the peace deal and the difficulties of building a disciplined army. Sudan People's...
After three years of devolution, the jury is still out on whether it hasn't merely created more opportunities for corruption
In late April, new county governors broadcast their successes as they celebrated three years of devolved government at a three-day celebration in Meru County. Yet through the jubilation...
Vol 57 No 10 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Familiar faces line up in the new power-sharing government. Will local and international pressure hold it to account?
South Sudan's new post-civil war government, the Transitional Government of National Unity, looks like a return to the status quo ante, before over two years of ruthless fighting...
The African Union member countries are at odds, leaving US air power – and some propaganda – to make up for military failures
The international coalition against Al Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen has been relying recently on a war of words – as well as United States drones and Special...
A ferocious raid by South Sudanese Murle forces into Ethiopia has raised questions about the ethnic division of the states
The massive cross-border raid for cattle and children by South Sudanese Murle people into Ethiopia's Gambella Region provoked a robust reaction from Ethiopia's armed forces, by far the...
The CCM's determination to win the Zanzibar election has undermined stability by leaving the opposition out in the cold
President Ali Mohamed Shein begins his second five-year term leading a single party government for Zanzibar and his Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) is the sole occupant of the...
President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh won with a disputed 87% of the vote in the 8 April presidential poll. The leader of the opposition Union pour le salut...
During President Obama's final months in office, he should target sanctions more effectively at the Khartoum regime, argues a Washington lobby group
A new report from the United States-based, Africa-focussed Enough Project proposes that President Barack Obama's government should use a similar range of finely tuned financial and technical sanctions...
The failure of the International Criminal Court's prosecutions against six high profile defendants raises doubts about the body's future as well as the role of the Kenyan authorities
The assessment by three judges at the International Criminal Court on 5 April that the prosecution's evidence against William Ruto, Kenya's Deputy President, and Joshua arap Sang, a...
A referendum is supposed to decide the form of government for the region but few doubt Khartoum will decide the outcome
For Khartoum, the Darfur referendum due on 11-13 April will officially conclude the Doha peace process and 'prove' that the war in the far west is over. In...
President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh has been trying to capitalise on obtaining the release of four Djiboutian soldiers from Eritrean custody after mediation by Qatar. He hopes it...
The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi finally got the electoral victory it wanted in Zanzibar after widespread intimidation, ballot-stuffing and an opposition boycott in the 21 March re-run of...
Mass protests in Oromia have escalated into a major challenge to the government, which shows no sign of compromise
Unrest in Oromia flared last November, and then died away. Many thought it a flash in the pan, but this February protests re-ignited across the region. The spark...
Two crucial polls reveal the strategies of the major parties. Politics as ethnic loyalty is the main theme for both
Two bye-elections on 7 March were make-or-break events for two big political leaders: Raila Amolo Odinga of the opposition Coalition for Reform and Democracy and Deputy President William...
The presidential election in Comoros is heading for a run-off on 10 April after a disputed round of primaries on 21 February. Three candidates now compete to succeed...
Ideological rivals and political foes are trying to exploit the death of the architect of Sudanese Islamism
When Hassan Abdullah el Turabi, the man who had presided over the Islamist movement in his country for five decades, died on 5 March, his dream of a...
The use of unregulated money in Uganda's elections is increasing. Last week's poll saw more voter-bribery than ever
A wounded man lies outstretched on the dusty ground in Hoima District, surrounded by curious onlookers. In tears, James Munyakyongole recounts the agony of his rotting leg to...
A funding gap and a string of defeats head a long list of problems for the African alliance fighting Islamist militants
The health of the African Union Mission in Somalia is still in question after the leaders of the troop-contributing countries ended a crucial summit on its financing and...
Two months ahead of national elections, President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh has experienced what must rank as one of most spectacular drubbings of a foreign head of state...
The incumbent's win was widely foretold but it could prompt mass unrest. And the ruling party suffered in the parliamentary polls
Now that President Yoweri Museveni has secured his re-election with his customary mixture of patronage and intimidation, opposition leader Kizza Besigye and his Forum for Democratic Change have...
Vol 57 No 4 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Riek may have got his old job back but there is still no new government and conflict has shifted southwards
Under threat of sanctions, President Salva Kiir Mayardit reappointed his old rival, Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon, as First Vice-President on 11 February but the two sides are still...
The Ugandan elections had been proceeding with less strife and acrimony than usual when they suddenly reverted to type on 13 February, when the opposition Forum for Democratic...
Nobody doubts the result but the methods behind the victory say a lot about how President Museveni rules the country and where it is going
There are no prizes for predicting who wins Uganda's presidential election on 18 February. After 30 years in office and four victorious elections in the last 20 of...
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The President's wife plays a vital role in the election campaign and is a potential successor to her husband
Although Janet Kataaha Museveni has decided not to run for Parliament in her Ruhaama constituency, nobody doubts that she continues to wield massive political power. She has been...
It was widely believed the AU could send a force to help bring peace to Burundi but the illusion shattered when the AU met in Addis Ababa
Between 17 December, when the African Union Commission decided to intervene in Burundi, and 31 January, when the AU summiteers in Ethiopia went home, the prospect of an...
Vol 57 No 3 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Rival leaders oppose UN calls for sanctions against them but still block progress towards a government of national unity
Despite damning reports from the United Nations and African Union, and threats of action against those seen as obstructing a peace deal, there is not enough political will...
The Daily Nation newspaper seems to have some doubts about why it sacked its Special Projects Editor, Denis Galava, in January, several weeks after suspending him over an...
Vol 57 No 3 |
- DJIBOUTI
- CHINA
Concern about China's new naval base in Djibouti is not going away after Indian forces spotted a Chinese submarine in the Bay of Bengal. China signed an agreement...
Al Qaida's loyalists ruthlessly purged the militia of Da'ish sympathisers after they tried to take over
For many Somali government officials, the recent visit by a senior British general confirmed what many already knew: sticking to the Western agenda of security fears earns more...
Kagame is set to ignore all his critics, the US included, and persist with his authoritarian political and economic course
The United States declared itself 'deeply disappointed' at President Paul Kagame's January decision to stand for a third term in office, but he rapidly dismissed all concerns in...
Khartoum will rely on its security system and bailouts from the Gulf to maintain power and fend off pressure for political change
The key word in Sudan this year is 'survival'. It is the prime focus both for the embattled National Congress Party regime and for an ever hungrier population....
Special interests hamper the federal project, while a split in Al Shabaab threatens devastating consequences for Kenya
This was supposed to be the year Somalia moved to a national electoral register and elected a president. Instead, the scene is set for rising tension among the...
Vol 57 No 1 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
This month, the warring factions are due to form an interim government but issues of money and the chain of command are unresolved
Two years after the outbreak of conflict between government and rebels, doubts still hang over the latest fragile peace agreement. All sides signed reluctantly under intense international pressure...
The old protagonists are readying themselves for another electoral battle as concerns about security and corruption escalate
Politics this year will be dominated by the faltering economy and partisan positioning ahead of the next general election, now scheduled for 8 August 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta's...