Members of parliament of the opposition National Super Alliance (Nasa) have boycotted the National Assembly since August's controversial elections, bringing legislative business to a halt. But when the...
Vol 58 No 25 |
- RWANDA
- UGANDA
Three editors from the Ugandan satirical tabloid Red Pepper have been charged with libel and 'offensive communication' over a story alleging that Uganda's security services were plotting to...
The African Gold Refinery, launched by President Yoweri Museveni in February, is being investigated by a United Nations panel of experts and two Ugandan anti-corruption agencies. The experts...
Despite a massive oil find over ten years ago, inter-company disputes, and wrangles over taxation and a refinery are still slowing progress
Late last year, President Yoweri Museveni directed his technocrats and the oil companies to start production in two years. It's going to take more than State House decrees...
As the country simmers after its election re-run, churchmen take to diplomacy – and politicians to the street and social media
In an eloquent address to a full auditorium at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC on the morning of 9 November, Raila Odinga,...
Hopes are high that however dangerous national politics may be, regional government will reduce ethnic and economic tension
Devolving power to Kenya's 47 counties was one of the main provisions of the 2010 constitution drafted in response to the post-election violence in 2007-08. Moderate government and...
The 14 October bomb is still causing aftershocks, exposing fault lines in the government's approach and a lack of political purpose
Al Shabaab's atrocity in Mogadishu on 14 October – the number of dead was recently updated to over 450 – is shedding light on some of Somalia's many...
Vol 58 No 23 |
- KENYA
- TANZANIA
President John Magufuli has picked an unexpected new fight on the Kenyan border. Over 1,100 cattle seized from Maasai herders in Tanzania's Kilimanjaro and Mara regions in late...
Arrests of dissidents and plans to restrict political freedom show Magufuli's authoritarian intent
Tanzania's experiment with multi-party democracy may be drawing to a close after 25 years and five general elections. A draft Political Parties Act proposing significant new restrictions on...
Vol 58 No 22 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Battles rage in the southern province of Equatoria, where a rival rebel group threatens to split the opposition
Since the collapse of South Sudan's Western-backed peace deal in July 2016, civil war has engulfed much of the three Equatorian provinces which comprise the southern third of...
Nobody got what they wanted from the election re-run. Kenyatta got a weaker mandate and the opposition's tactics misfired
Surely no president can look on a 98% majority with as much dismay as President Uhuru Kenyatta. The boycott of the 26 October poll by his main rival,...
The unrest is threatening to get out of control and the State of Emergency only put problems on pause
The latest round of violence in Oromia demonstrates the increasingly complex, and dangerous, nature of Ethiopia's protracted political crisis. It also reinforces the impression that while the government...
President Uhuru Kenyatta starts his second term facing street protests, legal challenges to his election, and deep divisions in the electoral commission
Neither side in the over-heated election row looks ready to talk, let alone negotiate. Taking a shot at his opponents for representing the 'politics of darkness' and accusing...
READ FOR FREE
The government is launching a new offensive, with US military backing, against Al Shabaab's strongholds in the wake of last weekend's truck bomb in the capital
The first response to the government's declaration of a 'state of war' against Al Shabaab on 21 October was a roadside bomb killing seven people, mostly women, in...
The sudden resignation of an electoral commissioner raises further doubts about the schedule for the rerun election
The sudden resignation of Roselyn Akombe, one of the eight commissioners on the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), has cast fresh uncertainty over the planned Presidential re-run...
The latest spate of Oromia protests suggests a weakening of central government power but many worry about the consequences
With the Ethiopian government already reeling from the destabilising violence stemming from territorial disputes between Oromo and Somali communities and the regional governments, there was more bad news...
The President's campaign to change the law to stay in office, yet again, is stirring revolt and causing him to dig deep to keep his loyalists in line
President Yoweri Museveni's deployment of soldiers in parliament on 27 September is but a small part of his multi-pronged effort to extend his presidency. Embarrassingly for him, security...
Our correspondents answer the most critical questions about the country's increasingly heated political contest
Is there a political crisis in Kenya? Would the involvement of foreign mediators help solve it?On this issue there is stark disagreement between President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition...
READ FOR FREE
An assassination attempt against an opposition leader raises suspicions about sinister government tactics
When 40 bullets were pumped into the car carrying Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) member of parliament Tundu Lissu outside his Dodoma home on 7 September, claims...
The Court ruling on the election gave politicians and the IEBC no road map on how to get out of the resulting mess
When Kenya's Supreme Court voided the election of President Uhuru Kenyatta, by four to two, it became the first-ever African court to unseat a sitting president, and only...
Rwanda has been piling the pressure on Western countries hosting people suspected of involvement in the 1994 genocide to extradite them for trial at home. There are 815...
The whereabouts and status of Diane Rwigara, the would-be presidential challenger to President Paul Kagame, have been uncertain for about ten days. She was detained in the aftermath...
Weeks after ending a nine-month State of Emergency, major outbreaks of deadly violence have taken place at the borders of Oromia and Somali Regional State provinces.
No sitting president has ever lost an election in Kenya, but no such election has ever been annulled. What happens next will be rooted in the history of the alliances and splits in Kenya’s previous presidential polls
Founding President Jomo Kenyatta and his successor Daniel arap Moi ruled in turn from 1964 until 2002 under the umbrella of the Kenya African National Union, the party...
The political class faces a severe test of its democratic credentials following the Supreme Court's judgement on the election
Praised across Africa as a triumph of judicial independence, the Supreme Court annulling of President Uhuru Kenyatta's victory in last month's presidential election is a double-edged sword. If...
READ FOR FREE
Instead of weakening Al Shabaab, the defection of top jihadist Mukhtar Robow could intensify the war
How Mukhtar Robow Ali 'Abu Mansur', one of Somali Islamism's most prominent leaders, crossed to the government side is clear enough. He surrendered himself to Hassan Hussein Mohamed,...
The State of Emergency may be over but there’s no sign of fundamental changes to address underlying problems
It's nearly a month since the ruling coalition's parliamentarians and their allies, who hold all the seats, voted to restore habeas corpus and suspend the State of Emergency...
After losing the war of words over the vote, the opposition has changed tactics and is taking its case to court
Raila Odinga's last bid for the presidency crashed days after the general elections on 8 August, leaving oppositionists facing hard choices about their political survival. Doubts about the...
Political gambles and technological questions haunt the declaration of the presidential election result
The general elections started well but went downhill fast. Early reports showed that the technology was working and that voters were enduring long queues and occasional organisational glitches...
As President Kenyatta heads for victory, the opposition claims skulduggery in the country’s high-tech election
After preliminary results had given President Uhuru Kenyatta 54.2% of votes, 1.4 million more than challenger Raila Odinga on 44.9%, in the 8 August presidential election, final results...
A horrifying assassination has set the country on edge just days before an already tense general election
It was a political killing in the country's worst tradition. Musalia Mudavadi, a joint leader of the opposition, called it 'a dagger into the heart of Kenyan democracy'...
READ FOR FREE
Two leading voter surveys disagree over the winner of the presidential election and a climate of fear is spreading
More than most electorates, Kenyans take opinion polls seriously. That might have been a bigger problem if there were a consensus among pollsters about the winner. Opinion polls...
A Rwandan former general exiled in South Africa, Faustin Kayumba Nyamwasa, has lost his official status as a refugee. Pretoria is using a May court ruling to improve...
Vol 58 No 16 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Juba has reacted angrily to Amnesty International's latest report, Do Not Remain Silent: Survivors of Sexual Violence in South Sudan Call for Justice and Reparations. The report condemns...
President Kagame’s victory next month is assured. Of greater interest is how he will achieve it and his policies towards the regional flashpoints
Lest there was any doubt about the outcome of the 4 August presidential election, President Paul Kagame dispelled it himself at a mass rally on 14 July, when...
READ FOR FREE
Mining companies hold their breath as the government introduces a radical new legal regime for the industry
Students at the Law School of Tanzania were presented with two case studies for their commercial law examination last month which illustrate how the government's dispute with mining...
As the parties enter the last two weeks of an increasingly tense race, accusations of rigging are multiplying
As both the governing Jubilee Party and the opposition National Super Alliance (Nasa) race into the final straight before the general elections on 8 August, both are focusing...
The US delays its sanctions decision, handing Khartoum a political defeat and rights activists a moral victory. But for how long?
Washington's deferral for three months of a decision on the 'permanent' lifting of trade sanctions on Sudan was as much about domestic politics and disarray in the White...
Joseph Nkaissery looked hale and hearty at the Labour Day rally at the tourist village Bomas of Kenya, which he attended with President Uhuru Kenyatta just hours before...
A supporter of Sudan's President Omer Hassan Ahmed el Beshir in London has angered survivors of the Grenfell Tower fire. The 14 June blaze claimed at least 80...
The wave of revolt has run out of steam and with it the momentum for reform. Yet resentment lingers and political challenges abound
Ten months into the state of emergency declared to help suppress a rash of protests across the country which claimed hundreds of lives, Ethiopia's security apparatus has the...
Pastoralists in cahoots with unscrupulous politicians are invading farms in the Northern Rift, using violence for political gain in the coming elections
Farm invasions led by Samburu herders targeting large farms and conservation projects have killed scores of people and chased some 10,000 people from their homes in Laikipia, according...
As it garners support, the opposition alliance insists that it cannot lose the election unless it is stolen
There is a spring in the step of the opposition National Super Alliance (Nasa) just over four weeks before the general elections. Much of Kenya's political class concedes...
READ FOR FREE
A court has barred the electoral commission in Nairobi from changing results in the constituencies
When the Appeal Court in Nairobi ruled on 23 June that the results of the presidential vote announced at the constituency level should be considered final, it changed...
Businessmen Harbinder Singh Sethi and James Rugemalira were brought back to Kisutu Resident Magistrates' court in Dar es Salaam on 3 July to face six additional charges over...
Although opinion surveys are losing credibility in the West, they are still taken seriously in Kenya. We look at the risks
Should we take opinion polls seriously after their serial failures to forecast elections in the United States and the United Kingdom? This is a question of critical importance...
The escalating conflict with Acacia may define both Magufuli's presidency and the future of the extractive industries
Now that the second committee appointed by President John Magufuli to look at Acacia Mining's exports of gold-copper concentrate has largely backed the findings of the first, the...
The former Attorney General and political fixer may be moving into the President's cross-hairs
Former senior government official Andrew Chenge, who was involved in the British Aerospace military radar affair, has survived several upsets and been regarded as untouchable. However, his political...
As the pre-harvest hunger gap begins and cholera spreads in Sudan and South Sudan, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North split threatens the sporadic food and medical supplies to...
President Magufuli is accusing Acacia Mining of under-reporting production. Its mines could close if the row isn't settled
In Africa's latest resource nationalism row, London-based Acacia Mining says it may halt operations at the Bulyanhulu Gold Mine if it can't reach a deal with Tanzania's government....
Vol 58 No 12 |
- KENYA
- ELECTIONS
Weak regulation is allowing data analytics companies to bring huge electoral advantages to political parties with deep pockets
There is nothing new about the controversial practice of buying data sets and gathering social media information from Facebook and Twitter to target specific electors. United States former...
The opposition is eating into Jubilee's lead while ethnic tensions are worryingly persistent despite leaders' attempt to cool them
President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee Party of Kenya can feel the breath of the serial presidential candidate, Raila Amolo Odinga, on the back of his neck. The...
One of President Yoweri Museveni's pet projects, the African Gold Refinery, has come under further scrutiny in an investigation published on 5 June by anti-corruption group Global Witness...
The London Conference on Somalia opened with exhortations and hope for the future. Promises abounded
President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo' joined a host of dignitaries at the third London Somalia Conference on 11 May to endorse and applaud his highly ambitious 'New Partnership...
The future that the world laid out in London is already hitting obstacles in the Somali capital
Many Somalis believe that whatever aid funds donors pledge during and after the London Somalia Conference on 11 May, first in the queue to receive them will be...
Vol 58 No 11 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
This year's 16 May celebrations of the anniversary of the founding of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) in 1983 were more than usually subdued. There was concern...
Opposition and government are outbidding each other with their spending promises amid signs of electoral disillusionment
President Uhuru Kenyatta is demanding that Parliament pass a supplementary budget bill to complete the near-impossible task of 'bringing down basic food prices and cost of living' which,...
The Jubilee Party was left deeply embarrassed at having to rerun the primary elections to select parliamentary candidates in 21 of the country's 47 counties this month. Party...
Few in the new cabinet were hired on their ability – instead they can thank Farmajo's highly effective political network
Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire's plate is more than usually full. Not only must he demonstrate that his past involvement with the once predatory-seeming Soma Oil and Gas...
Puntland's President Abdiweli Mohamed Ali 'Gaas' hopes he has struck Emirates gold after signing a 30-year contract worth US$336 million on 6 April with Dubai company P&O Ports...
Human rights campaigners and a main opposition party are targeted by a severe crackdown overseen by President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh amid apparent international indifference.
Activists from South Omo, in the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region of Ethiopia, say the government has been using the state of emergency to silence domestic critics...
President John Pombe Magufuli is experiencing conflict between his campaign against corruption and his increasingly dictatorial methods. He has boosted the roles of Regional and District Commissioners, hangovers...
Against a stream of disputes and delays, doubts are growing that the elections will be peaceful, credible or on schedule
For a candidate who is way ahead of his rivals in the opinion polls, President Uhuru Kenyatta strikes the pose of a surprisingly angry and intemperate man. On...
A United Nations report provides evidence that outcasts stick together, if not always honourably. North Korea has been providing military radios to Eritrea, in violation of UN sanctions...
Vol 58 No 6 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
The United Nations warns that famine in South Sudan, Nigeria, Somalia and Yemen is the greatest humanitarian challenge since the Second World War. So President Salva Kiir Mayardit's...
The official launch of African Gold Refinery comes amid concerns that its raw material comes from neighbouring conflict zones
President Yoweri Museveni has inaugurated East Africa's first refinery capable of refining gold to international standards of 99.9% purity. Speaking on 21 February at its ceremonial launch, he...
The government claims it wants self-sufficiency in sugar but importers seem once more to have triumphed
The demise of the sugar production company Bagamoyo EcoEnergy (BEE) after millions of dollars of investment over ten years is being seen as much as a test of...
Newly elected President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo''s nomination on 23 February of Norwegian-Somali Hassan Ali Khaire as Prime Minister caused widespread surprise in Mogadishu. Former Executive Director of...
Vol 58 No 5 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
President Salva Kiir Mayardit's beleaguered government seems not to grasp the seriousness of the 20 February official declaration of famine, jointly by Juba and the United Nations, or...
The opposition National Super Alliance (Nasa) electoral pact has had an early setback in its bid to win power at the August general elections. After a 30-day electoral...
Frauds uncovered in state pension and other public savings schemes are set to escape President Magufuli's anti-corruption blitz
It is looking increasingly likely that President John Magufuli's anti-corruption campaign will steer clear of investigating the abuse of state pension funds, including the National Social Security Fund....
Angered by corruption and continuing insecurity, MPs picked the maverick Farmajo. But the regime still depends on outside help
Colonel Gebre's face was a study in distress. Ethiopia's ubiquitous pro-consul, who has never concealed his sense of entitlement to decide Somalia's future, was crestfallen as the result...
An increasingly public rift has opened between Forum for Democratic Change leader Kizza Besigye and the celebrated journalist Andrew Mujuni Mwenda. Mwenda been accusing Besigye of lacking a...
The arrest of Abdiaziz Hassan Giyaajo Amalo, a trusted advisor of outgoing President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, will be of interest to the government of United States President Donald...
Army reshuffles ensure ruling family dominance and install tough officers to deal with regional unrest
The mid-January reshuffle of the upper levels of the Uganda People's Defence Forces (UPDF)was a characteristically careful balance of tribal allegiance and political planning designed to prolong President...
Bombs, bribery, and dirty deals have delayed the selection of the president. The electoral process has lost credibility
Some six months after around 20,000 'electors' started choosing members of parliament, the electoral process is still going on. On 8 February, goes the latest forecast, the selection...
Asmara's new role as Saudi Arabia's ally is causing headaches in Addis just as Egypt makes overtures to Issayas
Ethiopia is troubled by the deepening role of Eritrea in the Saudi Arabian-led coalition's war against Houthi rebels in Yemen and its enemy's consequent relief from diplomatic isolation....
The Kenya Defence Force suffered a devastating blow at the hands of Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen on 27 January when the jihadists overran an army base...
The President is hoping for a calmer year than last but his latest plans to stay on and hand over to his son could yet stir unrest
President Yoweri Museveni will use 2017 to launch a constitutional review that many suspect is designed to ensure the indefinite continuation of his presidency. A new Constitutional Review...
The political crisis shows no sign of abating but the opposition remains in disarray. The economic cost of the turmoil is rising
The government says that it is listening to the people and is considering reform in the wake of the violence and unrest in Amhara and Oromia for much...
As its foreign reserves dwindle, the Khartoum regime will face mounting protest on the street and a more determined opposition
Rising economic pressure and growing popular protest will test the National Congress Party (NCP) regime again this year and much will depend on the ability of opposition groups,...
Vol 58 No 1 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
The President has outmanoeuvred his rival, but the legacy of their bloody conflict is mass malnutrition and warnings of genocide
The realisation that President Salva Kiir Mayardit's peacemaking strategy – dubbed by cynics 'Pax Salvatica' because he implemented it unilaterally – has failed to deliver anything other than...
Calming the controversies of the electoral process will occupy the government. Security will remain precarious across the country
The agonising electoral process has raised as many problems as it has solved. The highly disputed selection of members of parliament – which will lead eventually to the...
Tensions could boil over when two ethnically based coalitions do battle in elections for the national and county governments
Unlike the peaceful polls that Kenya held in March 2013, the August 2017 elections will be characterised, the conventional wisdom has it, by violence at national and county...
The President wants industrialisation and will pull out all the stops to achieve it, even at the expense of his anti-corruption crusade
The year will be dominated by President John Pombe Magufuli's efforts to reshape Tanzania after ten years of President Jakaya Kikwete's directionless rule. If he is to maintain...