The central bank’s eyebrow-raising gold export figures are raising questions about the precious metal’s provenance
Ethiopia has posted a staggering rise in gold exports, earning US$3.5 billion from 37 tonnes in the fiscal year ending 7 July, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed told the...
Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye’s stock had risen after he and Kenya’s President William Ruto were invited to the signing of the peace deal in Washington. Less than two...
Uganda was the unlikely blocker of a draft resolution proposed by Colombia and Oman on the environmentally sound management of minerals and metals at the United Nations Environment...
Trial balloons, rumours and back-channel traffic offer pointers to the strategic future of the country as foreign allies take up their own positions
The air is thick with contradictory indicators about Somalia’s future, from online warnings that Mogadishu is about to be overrun by Al Shabaab through to media articles saying...
Hopes for an historic reset linking security to a US-backed minerals and infrastructure deal have been overshadowed by fresh fighting displacing 200,000 people
It has taken less than a week for a brutal reality to intrude on the brash hopes for the peace accord signed between Congo-Kinshasa and Rwanda in Washington...
The president’s party and its allies won most of the seats on ‘Super Thursday’ – yet numbers show a coalition fraying at the edges
President William Ruto and his semi-official allies in the late Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) enjoyed a bumper by-election day on 27 November, winning 16 of the...
Vol 66 No 24 |
- RWANDA
- BRITAIN
The days of London’s biggest football club, Arsenal, proclaiming ‘Visit Rwanda’ on its players’ sleeves are over after the club confirmed that its eight-year sponsorship deal with Rwanda’s...
Puntland’s war on Da’ish drags on and piracy revives as President Said Deni prioritises electioneering above paying for troops
Puntland’s bitter campaign against Islamic State (IS or Da’ish), backed by United States special forces, shows no sign of let-up despite 11 months of fighting and the capture...
The government risks losing aid funds and billions in investment in reaction to the election violence as it prepares for Independence Day protests
As the scale of bloodshed during the 29 October general election hits home, President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s government has triggered the country’s deepest crisis for decades, threatening the...
The President hopes he can remain in power by winning a ‘one person one vote’ election next year, or get his term extended if delays persist
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has strengthened his position in the run-up to the presidential election next year by skilfully dividing the opposition. He is sticking with his call...
Vol 66 No 23 |
- ERITREA
- ETHIOPIA
Commercial interests, naval ambitions and shifting alliances are raising the risk of war – as regional states pick sides
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly insisted that Ethiopia must secure direct access to the Red Sea. In his October address to parliament, he called it ‘inevitable’, citing...
The RSF’s seizure of El Fasher exposed the fragility of the Ndjamena regime and its dependence on United Arab Emirates funding
The seizure of El Fasher by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 26 October prompted louder calls from United States and European Union politicians for sanctions against the...
Vol 66 No 23 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
The dismissal of Salva Kiir’s closest ally in a chaotic reshuffle has left him looking increasingly isolated
With the economy racing downhill, the peace process ever more fragile and the political landscape dominated by the treason trial of former First Vice-President Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon...
Growth and exports climb ahead of national elections, as the government pins its hopes on extractive revenues
President Yoweri Museveni and his ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party approach January’s national elections with the National Unity Platform (NUP) opposition targeting his record on education, health...
The technocrat and the party hack – that is the early assessment of new Prime Minister Mwigulu Nchemba and Vice-President Emmanuel Nchimbi, the two men tasked with fronting...
At the Environment and Land Court in Nairobi on 13 November, justices began hearing a landmark lawsuit seeking to ban multinational manufacturers and local distributors from placing toxic...
Federal government is pushed back hard as opposition forces in Amhara, Oromo and Tigray form a loose anti-regime front, redrawing the political map in the Horn
After recent victories by insurgents in Amhara, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has been showing signs of the strain as its opponents join forces and launch heavier challenges....
The fall of El Fasher exposes international failures as the RSF kills thousands of civilians with impunity
The Rapid Support Forces’ seizure of El Fasher on 26 October after a brutal 16 month siege, gives it control over much of western Sudan and has strengthened...
Marked by eerie calm and deadly force, the vote unfolded under an internet shutdown – amid fear and fraud
‘Hundreds’ of Tanzanians were killed by security forces during the presidential election on 29 October and in the days that followed, as President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared...
While the Orange Democratic Movement works out its future, President Ruto is shoring up his support in its heartlands
The death of Raila Amolo Odinga has left Nairobi’s political class with a compelling question: how much longer before his Orange Democratic Movement splits? At stake is a...
A generational battle to decide who succeeds the veteran leader may also seal the fate of President William Ruto’s government
Until the death of Raila Amolo Odinga from a heart attack on 15 October, President William Samoei Ruto’s path to re-election in August 2027 had seemed clear: having...
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Unable to keep the streets clean, Johnson Sakaja is the latest victim of the Nairobi governor curse
In a country where the power of incumbency is so strong, it is a striking anomaly that no Nairobi governor has secured a second term since devolution became...
Security men guided by the President’s son are said to be behind the abductions and killings creating a climate of fear for the 29 October elections
President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s calm, maternal image conceals a streak of ruthless determination to root out all political opposition to ensure her re-election, no matter what the human...
Millions mourn a man who lost five presidential elections but changed the country, campaigning for political freedoms and constitutional reform
Raila Amolo Odinga, whose activism helped launch multi-party politics in Kenya and reformed the constitution after winning a national referendum, died on 15 October following a heart attack...
Kinshasa balks at signing economic framework as Kigali-backed rebels consolidate territorial gains and set up proto-state
The pressure is mounting on Massad Boulos, senior Africa advisor to United States President Donald Trump, after the latest setback to his efforts to corral Congo-Kinshasa and Rwanda...
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Bans on opposition parties make the ruling party’s victory a formality but there are questions on jobs and revenues
President Samia Suluhu Hassan and the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party are approaching presidential and parliamentary elections on 29 October, from which the leading opposition party Chadema...
Opposition activists want the government’s record on schools and healthcare to be central in the 2026 election campaign
New research exposing systematic government failures across health, education, and infrastructure reveals why Uganda ranks 157th out of 193 countries in the UN’s Human Development Index in 2024-25,...
The trials of over 50 activists charged with treason for offences linked to the 25 June protests against police killings and the 7 July Saba Saba (‘Seven Seven’)...
For the second year in a row, they are nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, but on the ground their work is getting ever more difficult. After the...
Vol 66 No 19 |
- ERITREA
- ETHIOPIA
The leaders in Addis Ababa and Asmara are picking sides in Tigray and could break apart the 2022 peace deal
Persistent fears of renewed large-scale war in northern Ethiopia stem from the failings of the Pretoria peace agreement – radical in ambition, limited in scope. In 2022, Prime...
Many see the constitutional reform bill as a means for leaders to carve out new jobs and entrench their political control
Few events contributed more to William Ruto’s presidential victory in August 2022 than the collapse of the Building Bridges Initiative that April. The product of a 2018 handshake...
Calling for a three-month humanitarian truce and banning Islamists, the Quad plan brings civilian politicians into talks for a post-war transition
After multiple failed attempts to chart a route out of Sudan’s devastating civil war, the statement by the Quad – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and the...
The Prime Minister’s claims of an economic miracle clash with the reality of unremitting austerity for tens of millions
After a year of sweeping macro-economic reforms – floating the birr, tightening budgets and adopting an interest-rate-based monetary policy – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has secured a...
With climate finance at a premium, delegates focused on bankable projects, trading and refining critical minerals and nature-based initiatives
Alongside the nationalist tub-thumping, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was making a serious point about climate and energy policy when he invited a group of international leaders for...
Vol 66 No 18 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Both sides are breaching the 2018 peace accord but are shielded by oil deals with China and Russia
The latest attempt at a peace deal between factions loyal to the country’s rival veteran leaders – an internationally brokered agreement signed in 2018 – is falling apart...
The 3 September resignation of National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) Governor Mamo Mihretu – one of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s closest economic confidants – surprised bankers in Addis...
The relocation of several United Nations agencies – including UN Women, the UN Children’s Fund and the UN Population Fund – to Nairobi, as part of the UN80...
The origins of the chronic enmity between Somalia’s president and the UAE leader lie in the Gulf state’s hegemonic ambitions, and some personal gripes
The United Arab Emirates has puzzled many observers with its hostility towards the Somali federal President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and its active support of his opponents in the...
As dissent mounts, the government is counting on loans, interest rate cuts and a stalled privatisation programme to ease its debt woes
To ease the cashflow crisis that triggered mass protests and weakened the shilling – as the Treasury used precious dollars to pay its Eurobond debts – President William...
African unity – alongside climate solutions and access to adaptation finance – will top the agenda at the second Africa Climate Summit in Addis Ababa, which runs from...
Vol 66 No 17 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
President Salva Kiir Mayardit has strengthened his control over his government’s economic ministries by appointing his eldest daughter, Adut Salva Kiir, as a senior economic advisor and dismissing...
A secret meeting in Zurich between US President Donald Trump’s envoy and SAF Commander Burhan may cut across the regional rivalries blocking negotiations
A three-hour meeting in Zurich between Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) commander General Abdel Fattah al Burhan and United States President Donald Trump’s Senior Africa Advisor Massad Boulos on...
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Vol 66 No 17 |
- SEYCHELLES
Ahead of next month’s elections, activists questions the value and accountability of new Gulf States investments
The cost of living, Gulf States investors and the government’s authoritarian turn are set to dominate the elections on 27 September. They will be the first national...
An ODM top official is threatening to quit – as party grandees jostle for influence in Ruto’s second term, unity is on borrowed time
The price of propping up an unpopular president is rising for veteran opposition figure and kingmaker Raila Odinga. He still wants to chart a course that preserves his...
Top officers accused of graft as President’s son asserts his authority
General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the volatile head of Uganda’s military and son of President Yoweri Museveni, has launched a further purge of officers as part of efforts to consolidate...
Vol 66 No 16 |
- KENYA
- UGANDA
The path towards a revamped passenger and freight rail link between Kenya and Uganda has become clearer, after the London Court of International Arbitration dismissed a US$2 billion...
Vol 66 No 16 |
- SOMALIA
- TURKEY
President Hassan Sheikh calculates that a geological survey showing commercial quantities of oil will get Ankara to step up military aid
National Security Advisor Hussein Ma’alim Mahamud Sheikh Ali resigned on 23 July, after many missteps over the last year that have allowed Al Shabaab to recover three-quarters of...
A new federal entity is forming which could spell the end to Somaliland and Puntland as political fiefdoms within Somalia
A landmark conference to establish a new Federal Member State of Somalia, Khatumo State, concluded on 31 July in Las Anod, the town that Somaliland’s President Muse Bihi...
The president’s pledge to end elite capture and patronage has been dropped for the ethnic identity politics which dominated the old one-party state
President William Ruto’s falling out with his core Mount Kenya constituency – followed by the impeachment of his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua – has become the defining crisis...
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Former Chief Justice Maraga and veteran politician Musyoka are top contenders to lead the campaign against beleaguered President Ruto
With personal ratings stuck between 10 and 15%, few dispute that President William Ruto is toxically unpopular – especially among young Kenyans. Yet most expect him to be...
Museveni’s beloved pipeline and refinery project rides on uncertain finance from UAE and questions about China’s priorities
Uganda’s planned oil refinery at Hoima hinges its joint venture partner Alpha MBM Investments, a little-known United Arab Emirates company chaired by a minor member of the Dubai...
Vol 66 No 15 |
- ERITREA
- ETHIOPIA
Eritrea and the ruling party in Tigray forge an unlikely alliance against Addis Ababa
Never short of self-belief, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces the most serious challenge yet to his balancing of regional and national interests – Eritrean and Tigrayan leaders,...
A White House-brokered agreement promises regional calm and economic integration, but success depends on dislodging rebels and securing mining rights
Speaking at the White House on 27 June, during the signing of a new peace agreement by the Rwandan and Congolese foreign ministers, President Donald Trump declared that...
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Vol 66 No 14 |
- KENYA
- BRITAIN
The oil companies arrived with pledges of roads, schools and clean water. Instead there has been negligible production but lots of environmental damage
More than 15 years have passed since British-based Tullow Oil came to the remote plains of northern Kenya, raising expectations of transformation. Once oil was confirmed, it was...
As both sides escalate drone warfare backed by foreign patrons, civilians are trapped in a cycle of violence, revenge and economic devastation
The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) have clawed back large tracts of land in the heart of the country forcing the Rapid Support Forces to refocus on western Sudan...
US officials have sounded out the combatants and their backers over a new peace plan – but nobody is jumping into fresh talks
A flurry of peace initiatives put to the warring factions in Sudan and their main sponsors is yet to move the needle. But it may prompt would-be mediators...
With Al Shabaab holding its own, the viability of next year’s elections diminishing, and donors in dismay, the constitution has moved centre stage
Mogadishu’s politicians are ending a period of bitter dispute and beginning to talk to each other as they all conclude that the conditions are not yet right for...
With police barricading every available route into Nairobi’s central business district and effectively suspending business activity across the country, the hotspots of protests marking the 35th anniversary of...
Multiple mining investments and a hydropower project are riding on Kigali and Kinshasa making peace but details on military arrangements remain thin
US Africa Envoy Massad Boulos and US hedge fund executive Gentry Beach – both with close links to US President Donald J Trump’s family – were prime movers...
Founded by the Vodafone team behind M-Pesa, M-Kopa has seen similar commercial success and political backing. At a 2015 entrepreneurship summit with President Barack Obama, then-President Uhuru Kenyatta...
As the president seeks to build bridges ahead of 2026 elections, his son is throwing online bombs at powerful figures
Social media attacks on rivals by General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the president’s son and head of Uganda’s military, are widening divisions in the ruling family. Over the past few...
Vol 66 No 12 |
- KENYA
- TRIBUTE
A champion of African literature and the rejection of colonial languages as a means to convey it, Kenya’s Ngugi wa Thiong’o, who died on 28 May, was often...
After the latest strikes on Port Sudan, the rival factions may have to choose between total war or negotiations
When the Rapid Support Forces launched a fusillade of drones against Port Sudan on 4 May, they once again changed the terms of engagement in the devastating two-year...
Shifting affiliations and military manoeuvres across the Horn and the Gulf are fuelling tensions
Regional players are adjusting their strategies as conflicts in the Horn of Africa intensify. United States President Donald Trump’s three-country trip to the Gulf from 16 to 19...
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After a devastating two-year war with Addis Ababa, the TPLF faces bureaucratic extinction
When the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) deregistered the Tigray People’s Liberation Front on 14 May, it raised fears of a new war in northern Ethiopia. This...
President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s tenure, once praised for its democratic reforms, has taken a sharp authoritarian turn. After initially reversing some of the repressive policies of her predecessor,...
Vol 66 No 11 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir Mayardit is the latest African leader to enlist a Republican-linked lobbying firm on K-Street, hiring Scribe Strategies & Advisors on a six-month, $500,000...
The launch of Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) marks the latest challenge to President William Ruto’s standing in central Kenya, a region where he claimed...
Hassan Sheikh has an image problem but foreign states want to keep him dependent on them
While battle has been raging between the Somali National Army (SNA) and Al Shabaab for at least four months, the federal government has been embroiled in a different...
Officials from President William Ruto’s government have vainly tried to intimidate journalists and activists as they attempt to control the fallout from a BBC Africa Eye documentary Blood...
Kampala has secured investors in the refinery and the 1,400 kilometre pipeline – but are they both viable?
At the centre of President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s 20-year ambition for Uganda to become the leading energy supplier across East Africa is the plan to build a refinery...
Defying local and foreign enforcers, activists protest against the President’s anti-constitutional plans
Hundreds of activists took to the streets of Bangui on 4 April to oppose President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s plan to run for an unconstitutional third term with the support...
A peace conference on Sudan declined to hold the Middle Eastern sponsors of the war to account. Now the conflict is spreading to Chad
If anyone questioned that the Gulf States United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, with their less pecunious partner Egypt, hold a veto on Sudan policy, the conference in...
Kenya’s embattled president calculates that being nice to Donald Trump can only get you so far – his meeting with Xi Jinping may have netted billions
For a cash-strapped government and a deeply unpopular president, William Ruto’s five-day trip to China could hardly have gone better. He returned with the promise of new investment...
Veteran Kenyan politician Martha Karua is spearheading a campaign against the suppression of opposition parties in East Africa. Ahead of Tundu Lissu’s court appearance on 24 April, the...
Diplomats suspect Abu Dhabi is building a new military logistics centre, hidden alongside a hospital, for Hemeti’s forces across the border
In a blaze of publicity the United Arab Emirates announced 10 March the opening of the Madhol Field Hospital in South Sudan’s Northern Bahr el Ghazal state, adjacent...
The Fund expects high growth and increasing tax revenues as Abiy Ahmed’s pro-market reforms bed in
As Ethiopia’s government grapples with insurgent forces in its Amhara, Oromo and Tigray provinces and heightened tensions with neighbouring Eritrea and Somalia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his...
Vol 66 No 8 |
- ETHIOPIA
- DEBT
Officials in Addis Ababa say the restructuring is almost agreed – but commercial creditors want better terms as growth picks up
Ethiopian officials are making progress towards restructuring US$8.4 billion external debts owed to official creditors, announcing an ‘agreement in principle’ on 21 March but they are locked into...
Vol 66 No 8 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Salva has made aggressive moves with Ugandan backing as a visa row with the US marks the superpower’s turn away from its one-time friend
Amid visible signs of worsening ill-health, President Salva Kiir Mayardit has been moving to protect his authority and succession, just as the house arrest of First Vice-President Riek...
Vol 66 No 8 |
- SUDAN
- BRITAIN
About US$750 million in fresh humanitarian aid – €522m ($592m) from the European Union and £120m ($158m) from the United Kingdom – was on the table along with...
Government looks to China and the UAE for funding as growth and revenues fall short and it bets on a pre-election spending boom
At the heart of President William Ruto’s calculus ahead of his re-election bid in 2027 is a bet that Kenya’s economy will have recovered enough to allow him...
The radical nationalists and Islamists helping the army defeat the Rapid Support Forces in Khartoum will haunt the new regime
On 15 April 2025, General Abdel Fattah al Burhan will commemorate two years of war against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from the presidential palace in Khartoum. As...
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Vol 66 No 7 |
- KENYA
- WHO'S WHO
Edwin Sifuna, Secretary-General of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Senator for Nairobi County, has cut a frustrated figure during the political manoeuvring that followed last June’s...
Vol 66 No 7 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Chaos surrounds the fate of South Sudan’s First Vice-President Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon, whose arrest threatens to reignite war. On 26 March, his Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO)...
Commissioned by the UAE to ship arms to the RSF militia in Darfur, Ndjamena is threatened by its eastern neighbour
After expelling the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from Khartoum in late March, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) commander General Abdel Fattah al Burhan is now focusing on the...
Unresolved border disputes with Asmara and internal divisions in Ethiopia are driving the region to the brink
A schism in the Tigray regional authority has erupted into clashes in several towns and could draw in Eritrea and Ethiopia’s federal government, maybe others, into a devastating...
Al Shabaab’s massive offensive in February may have failed, but the news isn’t uniformly positive for Mogadishu
Al Shabaab is still fighting a massive offensive it launched on 19 February to take over Middle Shabelle, the area where the federal government in Mogadishu has had...
Running the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission has been a poisoned chalice for those in the hot seat, but that did not stop a flood of applications that...
The collapse of negotiations offers some stark choices as President Tshisekedi’s position weakens further
A week of diplomatic spats and foiled negotiations has handed more political weight to the M23 militia and its Rwandan backers to add to their string of victories...
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The proliferation of negotiations in the Kinshasa-Kigali war is derailing the prospect for a ceasefire
Its commanders and some of its key allies in the Rwandan government were sanctioned by the European Union on 17 March but it has been another good week...
A pact with his erstwhile foe may be the President’s best chance of winning the 2027 elections
The great survivor of Kenyan politics, Raila Odinga, has an uncanny ability to turn every electoral defeat into a strategic victory. His failure to secure the position of...
As General Burhan and the SAF gain ground, President Mahamat and his allies will face growing pressure at home and in Darfur
All eyes are on Sudan, especially now that the military dynamics are shifting in eastern and central areas in favour of Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) commander General Abdel...
Rarely do rival politicians celebrate new competition. Yet the launch of the People’s Liberation Party (PLP), the new party led by Martha Karua – Raila Odinga’s running mate...
Garowe claims victory over Da’ish but the Jihadists are firmly established and can support operations across the region
After nearly two months of hard fighting, the Puntland authorities have announced they expect their campaign against Islamic State in Somalia to conclude successfully. The Islamic State (IS...
As its ties strengthen with the United Arab Emirates, President Ruto’s government is helping Sudan’s RSF militia
Kenyan diplomats and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) under General Abdel Fattah al Burhan have waded into a new diplomatic row over plans by his rival General Mohamed...
General Burhan’s SAF has won back the eastern and central lands taken by the RSF but a deadly stalemate persists
The battle for control of Khartoum is raging. The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al Burhan is fighting for control of what is left...
The country’s leading media group faces financial struggles and competition from social platforms, while foreign outlets expand in Nairobi
A highly competitive and – by the region’s standards – vibrant media culture is among the legacies of Nation Media Group (NMG) founder and owner, Prince Shah Karim...
Kenya’s hopes of chairing the AU were thwarted – a blow to its candidate and to President Ruto’s prospects of re-election in 2027
In the end, African leaders chose the diplomat over the politician. Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf held off veteran Kenyan presidential candidate and dealmaker Raila Odinga to...
Regional officials seem resigned to Rwandan control over swathes of eastern Congo as the price of a ceasefire
Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame is moving pieces at will around the regional chessboard in this deadliest of tournaments. His putative opponent in Kinshasa, President Félix Tshisekedi, is flailing,...
Foreign minister Wagner quietly dropped in to London to undermine Rwanda’s sponsorship deal with a football club known for its prominent Labour supporters
Congo-Kinshasa Foreign Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner took a quiet detour to London on 9-11 February to persuade influential football fans to pressure President Paul Kagame to pull his...
The coalition building ahead of 2027 may be shaped by Raila Odinga’s fate in the AU elections in Addis Ababa in mid-February
The coalitions that will contest Kenya’s general elections in August 2027 are rapidly taking shape. For President William Ruto, the first step involves integrating the Amani National Congress...
After seizing control of the opposition Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) party, Tundu Lissu now faces the gargantuan task of taking on President Samia Suluhu Hassan and...
The European Union’s desperation to catch up with China’s mineral access is so great that it is willing to overlook evidence of mineral smuggling by M23 in eastern...
President Museveni is planning his seventh presidential term but his son and heir apparent unsettles neighbouring states
As President Yoweri Museveni lays the groundwork for a seventh term next January, a pressing question remains, will he manage to control his mercurial son and heir apparent,...
Angola could play key role as Kagame-Tshisekedi conflict threatens region
When Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) and its Congolese allies, the M23 militia, captured Goma, the capital of Kivu-Nord province, over the weekend of 25-26 January, they exposed the...
The damage caused by Ethiopia’s MoU has receded but political prospects are poor and morale in the national security forces is at rock bottom
If there are prospects for an upturn in 2025, it’s only because security, morale and international coherence could hardly have been worse in 2024. Ethiopia fractured the international...
Torn between ties to the US and the UAE, Kenyan officials banned a press conference by the RSF militia in Nairobi
The last-minute cancellation of a press conference in Nairobi on 13 January by senior officials in the Rapid Support Forces suggests that its commander General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo...
Nobody expects the current wave of repression to end before the election in October because the Magufulistas have recaptured the ruling party
The Tanzanian polity is riven by speculation about how and why the era of reconciliation and openness ushered in by President Samia Suluhu Hassan has been replaced by...
Without serious pressure on the war’s sponsors, the fighting could drag on, perhaps leading to national partition
After 20 months of fighting, the dynamics of Sudan’s war are changing. Clashes in many of the most populated areas are slowing down because sides are trying to...
Despite regional setbacks and domestic insurgencies, the Prime Minister is set to pursue his vision of a modernised Ethiopia using military means
In mid-December, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan brokered a deal between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia. Under strong Turkish pressure –...
Six months after the Gen Z protests forced him to sack his cabinet and drop a finance bill, the President wants to befriend old rivals
After a year of turmoil when he appeared to be in office but not in power, President William Ruto wants to focus on building a new coalition to...