Vol 60 No 25 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Another extension prevents the peace deal from collapsing but there is little sign that the impasse can be broken despite a new US gambit
The latest peace deal is on life support despite the two leaders agreeing to form a unity government by February. Opposition leader Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon had refused...
The BBI report failed to deliver on the hype and looks set to produce more ethnic rivalry in the run-up to the 2022 elections
The much-hyped Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) report, commissioned by President Uhuru Kenyatta and his erstwhile rival, opposition leader Raila Odinga in March 2018, was launched on 27 November...
Other nations are queuing up to stake their claims to self-government in the wake of the Sidama referendum result
Even before voting began in November's referendum on Ethiopia's tenth regional state, plans were advancing to form a Sidama branch of Abiy Ahmed's new ruling party, the Prosperity...
The opposition is finding unity elusive while the President is already on the campaign trail ahead of the next elections
In the wake of the recent brutal attacks by security forces on protestors in Kampala, pundits ponder why the formidable mass movement of Bobi Wine and Kizza Besigye's...
President Uhuru Kenyatta is trying to put an end to a simmering rebellion against his government in a region where discontent with him would be least expected –...
Selected as a Nobel Peace Laureate, the Prime Minister faces mayhem in his home region
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is pushing to merge all the ruling Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front's regional member organisations, as well as affiliated ruling parties from other federal...
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Sisi wants Trump's help to break the impasse with Ethiopia over the Nile dam. They meet in Washington but Addis insists nothing will change
Two negotiating tracks are emerging over the potential flashpoint between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over the effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the flow of the...
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The race is on to snap up the two new telecom licences Ethiopia plans to award by the end of March. Kenyan SafariCom is teaming up with parent...
The assault on leading oppositionist Kizza Besigye by police on his way to a Forum for Democratic Change meeting on 4 November was the latest in a series...
The by-election campaigns for Kibra (previously Kibera), Kenya's largest slum, near downtown Nairobi, turned into a full-dress rehearsal of the political contest between Deputy President William Ruto and...
President John Magufuli's decision to resolve corruption cases through cash-based plea-bargaining rather than the dysfunctional law courts is already producing results.
Vol 60 No 20 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
A bloated budget giving largesse to the military and politicians but austerity for the rest threatens an already fragile peace
The formation of a unity government has been thrown into doubt again after it was reported this week that Sudan People's Liberation Movement-In-Opposition leader Riek Machar would not...
New Principal Secretary to the Treasury Julius Muia is hoping that his talks with the International Monetary Fund at its annual meeting on 14-20 October in Washington will...
A bid to build alliances across the country’s ethnic divides owes more to political ambition than to altruism
Due for release in early October, the wide-ranging report of the Building Bridges Initiative looks likely to deepen political conflict despite its lofty aims of lessening ethnic and...
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Abiy is gambling that he can win an election with a unified coalition, but the campaign could provoke more factionalism
Ethiopia's strained ruling coalition has pledged to hold national elections on time next year and is set to take advantage of the lack of preparation by a recently...
One by one, President John Magufuli's opponents within the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party are biting the dust. Nape Nnauye, MP, former minister, and former party ideology secretary,...
Infrastructure development under President John Magufuli is haphazard and expensive
In July, the government contracted Chinese companies to build a 3.2-kilometre bridge across the Mwanza gulf on Lake Victoria. The US$260 million bridge, to be funded out of...
President Kenyatta wants to buy his way to a legacy. Sceptics say the economic outlook does not support this largesse
On an impromptu stop at a function at Mwangoni Primary School in Kwale County on the south coast on 8 September, President Uhuru Kenyatta made an instant personal...
Vol 60 No 18 |
- KENYA
- SOMALIA
Tensions between Kenya and Somalia are rising fast over a dispute about politics and money in a Somali province
Separate but inter-related arguments over elections in Jubaland and offshore oil blocks claimed by both Kenya and Somalia appear to be coming to a head in the wake...
Vol 60 No 17 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
The government’s fondness for pre-selling oil greases the wheels but hurts the exchequer. It’s an addiction that will be hard to break
Developing countries have long been advised against forward-selling their natural resources – often their only source of foreign exchange – in return for upfront cash. The credit is...
Starting work on 22 August, a day after he was sworn in, new Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok quickly amassed support, ranging from activists in the sit-in outside the...
Vol 60 No 17 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
The British government's Serious Fraud Office (SFO) has launched an investigation into suspected corruption by UK currency printer De La Rue Group and associates in South Sudan. The...
Neither side likes the deal. The generals want to play for time and the activists see it as a first step to power
For the thousands gathering in central Khartoum, waving flags and sounding horns around the Friendship Hall, the constitutional declaration initialled on 4 August was far from the revolutionary...
The President’s decision to act first and reflect later is proving costly for what should be the country’s most valuable export crop
Last November, President John Pombe Magufuli took cashew marketing out of the hands of private traders, who refused to pay the price he demanded for raw cashew and...
The widely publicised US$6 million lobbying contract between controversial Washington lobbyist Ari Ben-Menashe with Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemeti, deputy leader of Sudan's Transitional Military Council (TMC), to...
A fake letter detailing an assassination plot against the Deputy President has widened the fault lines within the ruling elite
The political drama sparked by a fake letter claiming that several cabinet ministers from President Uhuru Kenyatta's Mount Kenya homeland had been plotting to kill Deputy President William...
As negotiations for the transition stretch out, activists are blocking plans for a born-again junta
Backed by money and guns from allies in the Gulf and Cairo, the ruling generals in Khartoum had hoped by now to have consolidated a new regime, complete...
Factions are struggling for advantage within the ruling CCM. But outside it, opposition and dissent are dangerous
With 15 months to go to the 2020 general election, President John Pombe Magufuli faces blatant dissent from senior figures in the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM). Yusuf...
In the months leading up to the August 2017 polls in Kenya, rumours flew that data-mining consultancy Cambridge Analytica, then at the height of its notoriety, had been...
The ruling generals in the sprawling security system will try to control the transition, whatever the cost
The security structures – the rival armed and intelligence groups – that grew up under the National Islamic Front (NIF) and its successor National Congress Party regime cast...
Westerners are fuelling fears about the government’s appetite for Chinese loans. But their funding models are not that different
According to some of the opinion columns in its newspapers, Kenya is currently on a reckless borrowing spree in which the country has mortgaged some of its key...
Vol 60 No 14 |
- ERITREA
- ETHIOPIA
Attention is focusing once more on last November's meeting of Eritrean President Issayas Afewerki with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed one month after retired Brigadier-General Asaminew Tsige, the...
The most serious attack so far on Abiy Ahmed’s premiership signals how difficult his reforms will be to achieve
It was a deadly coup de thêatre. The simultaneous slaying of the premier of the Amhara regional state, the second most populous in the federation, and the Defence...
A parliamentary probe into the management of the 2017 elections found serial irregularities and recommends possible criminal charges
When, in April, the Kenyan parliament's Public Accounts Committee (PAC) delivered its report on the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission's performance during the 2017 elections, it found the...
As it tries to shoot down the democracy protests, the junta underplays the deepening splits in its own ranks
Such was the horror wreaked by the Rapid Support Forces' (RSF) massacre squad on 3 June that the tentative steps towards dialogue this week between the pro-democracy protesters...
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State Department choices prompt a resurgence of anti-US sentiment as oil goes up for grabs
The nomination on 30 May of the United States diplomat James Swan as the UN Secretary-General's Special Representative in Somalia has deepened divisions within the country's political class,...
Premier Abiy Ahmed’s focus on a democratic transition faces heavy challenges as the ruling coalition struggles to rein in conflict
With preparations for landmark elections less than a year away and behind schedule, with the country trapped in a security crisis and an ethnic group threatening to declare...
UN peacekeepers and other security sources confirm that units from at least two battalions of the Rwanda Defence Force have taken positions inside Congo-Kinshasa, to hunt down groups...
From armed clashes to roundtable talks to threats of a walk-out, the transition jolts from crisis to crisis
Veering from armed clashes to roundtable talks, the negotiations between the ruling generals and civilian activists remain fraught, with hundreds of thousands of protesters camped outside key military...
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Vol 60 No 10 |
- SUDAN
- ECONOMY
To rescue the economy, the new government will have to free it from the grip of the generals, the spies and corrupt politicians
Just as the spiralling price of bread was the trigger for the four months of nationwide protests that led to the toppling of President Omer Hassan el Beshir...
The President is planning to launch a new anti-Al Shabaab military offensive. But the auguries are not favourable
New talks are taking place between the government of President Mohammed Abdullah Mohammed 'Farmajo', the United States, Ethiopia and the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) to launch...
Talks between the generals and the opposition about the shape of the transition are floundering
At the heart of the contest is the fight for control of the interim regime: whether ultimate power should rest with the military or the proposed civilian council....
The President heads into uncharted territory in dealings with China but also with opponents and allies at home
While the leaders of Egypt, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Mozambique brought their official staff to China's recent Belt and Road Forum last week, Kenya's President Uhuru Kenyatta also brought...
Last year's rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea was supposed to be about breaking down barriers, but a stuttering process has seen them rise again after an initial thaw....
A new compulsory identity card raises questions about privacy, the succession and the President’s business friends
Although overshadowed by President Uhuru Kenyatta's annual State of the Nation address on 4 April, the political establishment came together in a rare episode of bipartisanship to launch...
It was hardly surprising that government soldiers should abandon their posts after not being paid
Army day in Somalia is 12 April. But March was mutiny month. The country is still counting the cost after the Somali National Army abandoned three major bases...
Vol 60 No 8 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
An extraordinary display of humility by Pope Francis shocked the rival leaders but has not make the tenuous peace less fragile
On 10 and 11 April, South Sudan's rival warring leaders, President Salva Kiir Mayardit and former Vice-President Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon, met at the Vatican face to face...
It has been a week of two halves for Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el Sisi. It ended with a celebration at the Heliopolis Presidential Palace of the vote...
Oppositionists keep up the pressure, pushing Omer el Beshir's quarrelling successors into early concessions
The millions of Sudanese activists taking on one of the world's most ruthless regimes, forcing two of its leaders from power in a couple of days, say they...
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President Magufuli’s bold move to bypass the cashew middlemen by bringing in the army is likely to have disastrous results
Last November, President John Pombe Magufuli ordered the army to take over the transport and processing of Tanzania's entire cashew harvest of more than 200,000 tonnes. Now, with...
Comoros's tenuous democracy appears under continuing threat as the confrontation between opposition and government after the contentious 24 March re-election victory of President Assoumani Azaly accelerates. The authorities...
Ambitions for venture capital in agriculture – once the Next Big Thing – are foundering
The Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT), one of ex-President Jakaya Kikwete's favourite projects, touted globally as a radical policy to support smallholders while promoting foreign venture...
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Vol 60 No 6 |
- RWANDA
- UGANDA
A mixture of real fears and deep paranoia on both sides lies behind the current crisis, stirring memories of a vicious clash nearly 20 years ago
Ten days after Rwanda closed its main border post with Uganda on 28 February, forcing trucks and buses from Uganda into days-long delays at the customs post of...
President John Magufuli's Foreign Minister, Augustine Mahiga, took Brussels aback last month when he announced that talks would re-open on the stalled Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the...
A state of emergency, appointing military governors and disowning his political allies has done nothing to halt demands for the President's exit
As demonstrators across the country win growing support in their call for his exit, President Omer el Beshir's choices are diminishing quickly and regional developments are moving against...
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Personal prestige projects threaten to divert the Prime Minister’s attentions from his reform agenda
As the latest controversy over Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa, crackled and sizzled, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's thoughts turned to dinner. A fundraising banquet to be more precise, with...
Vol 60 No 5 |
- BURUNDI
- SOMALIA
After a furious but well-hidden row, Burundi is set to withdraw 1,000 soldiers from the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) force immediately; 4,532 Burundian troops will remain.
Vol 60 No 5 |
- RWANDA
- UGANDA
Relations between Rwanda and Uganda have been steadily declining and reached a new low after Kigali briefly closed the busiest border crossing at Gatuna and reportedly deployed defensively...
The Nairobi attack has sparked an intense new round of action by all the combatants in Somalia
The Al Shabaab conflict has reached a new level of intensity and bloodshed following the attack in Nairobi on 15 January in which 25 people, including four attackers,...
Vol 60 No 4 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
The government army loyal to President Salva Kiir Mayardit (now known as the South Sudan People's Defence Force – SSPDF) has made common cause with Riek Machar's SPLA-In...
As protesters keep up the pressure, diplomats are mulling an immunity from prosecution deal for Omer el Beshir to persuade him to quit
After over two months of demonstrations across the country and over 50 civilians killed by security forces, the resilience of the opposition is persuading some foreign governments to...
Kenyatta’s frustration with the slowness of change is visible as he looks to his legacy and Ruto ponders the next election
For a leader who has tamed the political ambitions of the main opposition party and brought it to support his government's national unity and development agenda, President Uhuru...
The success of the Prime Minister’s reforms depends on how he manages intricate regional and ethnic power struggles
Abiy Ahmed was one of the star attractions at the Davos circus. Yet after leaving the World Economic Forum with the applause ringing in his ears, more down-to-earth...
Nearly 18 months after suspected government gunmen poured 40 bullets into Tundu Lissu, MP, outside the National Assembly in Dodoma, the most persistent thorn in the side of...
The marriage of convenience between Uhuru and Raila will start to unravel as money grows tight and a rival consort asserts himself
Kenya's political landscape in 2019 will be dominated by two-way competition between Deputy President William Ruto of the ruling Jubilee Party and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga of...
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President Magufuli is stifling liberties but investment confidence is crashing and resource nationalism is yielding few benefits
Since entering office a little over three years ago, President John Pombe Magufuli has focused on domestic affairs. Despite the approach of the 2020 general election, he will...
Hidden frustrations broke surface when Farmajo expelled the UN envoy, underlining major differences with the international community on the way forward
The expulsion of Nicholas Haysom, the UN Secretary General's Special Representative in Somalia, has opened a rift with the powers backing the federal government and financing the military...
Abiy Ahmed calculates that a new era of democracy and respect for civil rights could counter any backlash to his reforms
It promises to be another tumultuous year for Ethiopia and its struggling ruling coalition, the Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front. After what amounted to an internal coup d'état...
Vol 60 No 1 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Old adversaries finally appear ready to make a go of peace but the international community is reluctant to foot the bill
If everything goes to plan and on schedule, South Sudan should finally turn the corner in 2019 and take its rightful place among the community of African states...
Farmajo is becoming dictatorial as dissension grows in the international community and prospects for federal unity and isolating Shabaab recede
The last year was full of promise of greater change during this year. Regional relations were dominated by the sea-change in policy brought about by Ethiopia's Prime Minister...
Long-standing opposition groups and former regime allies are demanding the President's exit in the biggest protests since he seized power 30 years ago
Three weeks of opposition demonstrations across the country have left President Omer Hassan el Beshir much weakened, and vulnerable to machinations in the National Congress Party regime and...