President Ruto’s fund for small businesses is taking shape but critics ask whether sacrificing its ambition will limit its impact
The fanfare at the launch on 30 November of President William Ruto's Hustler Fund for small businesses could not be denied. Far less clear is if it will...
Vol 63 No 25 |
- ERITREA
- ETHIOPIA
The reluctance of some to negotiate, tricky problems between allies, and arm-twisting from the west make for a complex negotiating picture
The fledgling peace process between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front has evolved from a mere cessation of hostilities agreed in Pretoria on 2...
As the President lays the groundwork to stand for a seventh term, the struggling economy may deny him the funds for vote-winning projects
Petitions for President Yoweri Museveni to stand as president in 2026 – his seventh election since seizing power in 1986 – are flooding in from all points of...
The opposition leader is pushing human rights and scoring against Museveni, whose succession saga meanders on
Bobi Wine, alias Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, leader of the National Unity Platform (NUP) and the country's biggest opposition party is rattling the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), stepping...
President Muse Bihi Abdi looks to be succeeding in his campaign to neutralise the opposition and consolidate the extension of his own presidential term by two years, regardless...
The recent bomb attack in the capital reveals weakness in Al Shabaab, which is at its lowest military ebb for years
The horrific Al Shabaab bombing in Mogadishu on 29 October which killed 100 and wounded more than 400 showed the jihadists' defiance in the face of President Hassan...
The fight to control the electoral commission focuses on personalities instead of pushing for its wider reform
Wafula Chebukati, the chairman of Kenya's Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is due to retire on 17 January but the opposition's critiques of the organisation – and...
A row over a scheme to outlaw minerals produced by companies using child labour or financing wars in Central Africa will hit global supply chains
The world's biggest tech companies – including Alphabet, Apple, Samsung and Tesla – buying tin, tungsten and coltan from Central Africa face a supply chain crisis after evidence...
A trio of African politicians have presided over a tentative step towards ending the world’s deadliest conflict
The truce signed between Addis Ababa's federal forces and Tigrayan representatives in Pretoria on 2 November opens the prospect of an end to the fighting and resumption of...
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President Ruto's new cabinet establishes a new elite ushered in with maximum connections and minimum scrutiny
Keen to honour his campaign debts, and with apparently little concern over the integrity of his nominees, President William Ruto has sworn in a 24-member cabinet that is...
Vol 63 No 22 |
- TANZANIA
- UGANDA
Uganda is hoping that Chinese funding will enable it to make good on plans to start commercially pumping its oil reserves in April 2025, as the latest part...
The international community's weak and contradictory responses to the fighting between the Congolese army and Tutsi rebel group M23 means that, apart from criticism from the United States,...
Ahead of the signing of a multi-billion dollar gas export project, investors are keeping a close watch on stability
This year, the government is embarking on two big projects which could radically change the country's political economy over the next five years. Firstly, and under pressure from...
Australian company says its discovery at Ngualla is the world's fifth largest rare earth deposit outside China
A battle over the processing of minerals produced in Tanzania is holding up a US$350 million project to mine rare earths at Ngualla, in the south-west of the...
After promising ambitious support programmes for small businesses, the new President finds that the fiscal cupboard is bare
President William Ruto's grand, and expensive, promises of a 'bottom up' economy, replete with new financial support for small businesses and farmers, has quickly fallen foul of economic...
Deadly food shortages and Al Shabaab's punitive taxes are driving clan leaders to fight the Islamist militia 'to the death', radically changing the balance of forces in the civil war
International aid agencies, distracted by Russia's war in Ukraine, are struggling to send food and medicines to alleviate famine conditions threatening nearly half of Somalia's 17 million people...
Vol 63 No 21 |
- KENYA
- UGANDA
President Museveni's erratic son has exposed a dangerous vacuum of power which could trigger a messy succession battle
The falling out between President Yoweri Museveni and his son Muhoozi Kainerugaba is dividing the first family and the state bureaucracy, as well as deepening disaffection in the...
Close allies of the president and his deputy dominate the new team, with a sprinkling of technocrats, but few women
After a narrow election win and a slim majority of MPs backing him in parliament, President William Ruto is taking no chances with his first cabinet. His team...
The fate of lawyer Paul Gicheru is one of many unexplained deaths linked to the 2007-2008 political violence cases at the ICC
Widespread suspicion greeted the death of Paul Gicheru, the Kenyan lawyer who two years ago turned himself into the International Criminal Court to face charges of tampering with...
Pressure grows on state finances after details emerge of a $45 million spending spree by the last administration ahead of the elections
Facing growing financial pressures, President William Ruto appears to be rethinking his earlier rejection of any restructuring of Kenya's foreign debt. Public debt stands at 8.56 trillion shillings...
Tigrayan and federal forces are blaming each other for scuppering the truce and they are right – both sides were planning for more fighting
Ahead of the resumption of fighting in early September, both Tigrayan and federal forces had repositioned their troops as tensions rose amid the faltering peace process. This followed...
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Vol 63 No 19 |
- ERITREA
- ETHIOPIA
Federal government forces are yet to make a military breakthrough despite sustained attacks on Tigray on multiple fronts
It is now clear that both the federal and Tigrayan forces used the nearly nine-month truce to quietly prepare for war. Despite maintaining a façade of commitment to...
Few believed Burhan's promise to hand over to civilians ahead of elections. And many fear that his deputy Hemeti is building a formidable power base
Two-and-a-half months on from General Abdel Fattah el Burhan's announcement that he and his fellow military officers were withdrawing from the political dialogue and would leave civilian politicians...
As he chooses his ministers, the new president has been making sweeping economic changes and blaming his predecessor
Four days after his victory lap and inauguration on 12 September, President William Samoei Ruto flew to London for Queen Elizabeth II's state funeral, and on to New...
After ending fuel and maize subsidies, the new President got in a diplomatic tangle while cutting a deal with Rabat on cheaper fertiliser
In a mark of political self-confidence President William Ruto announced swingeing cuts to fuel and maize subsidies at his inauguration on 12 September at Nairobi's Kasarani stadium. But...
The Supreme Court has unanimously upheld the Deputy President's election win, probably ending his rival's political career
After an epic campaign against the political establishment, William Ruto will take over as President with the economy at its weakest for years and the political system at...
Presidential winner William Ruto accused his erstwhile ally Kenyatta of weaponising the state against him – now he will start the purge
William Ruto's ascent to the presidency on 5 September leaves him with a raft of political debts to pay. Reminiscent of Uhuru Kenyatta's 2013 accession, it has also...
Josep Borrell, the European Union's High Representative, will become the first western leader to congratulate Kenya's President-elect William Ruto in person when he visits on 10 September. United...
Despite talking tough against Al Shabaab, President Hassan Sheikh has not stopped terror attacks, much less reformed the security system as he promised
The new government's failure to replace compromised state security officers and a catalogue of other errors explains how Al Shabaab was able to attack the Hayat Hotel in...
Having made big financial and personal pledges to win backing for his campaign, William Ruto now has to satisfy his creditors
As soon as Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission chief Wafula Chebukati declared William Ruto the winner of the presidential election, the President-elect swung into action, immediately putting together...
After challenging President Uhuru Kenyatta on his home turf, the Deputy President has pulled off a remarkable political upset
Only the Supreme Court stands in the way of Deputy President William Ruto's final trouncing of his establishment foes in State House, the big media organisations and many...
The shooting down of a plane apparently bound for Tigray by Ethiopia's air force on 24 August could confirm a return to civil war after five months of...
The Supreme Court is to give its verdict on the close-run election and the electoral commission in a highly charged atmosphere
When presidential contender Raila Odinga's legal team, civil society organisations and sundry individuals met the deadline of 2 p.m. on 22 August to file their petitions disputing the...
Deputy President William Ruto's coalition has redrawn the political map but the dispute over the presidential vote rumbles on
While the row over the presidential election is set to end up in the Supreme Court, gains by Deputy President William Ruto's coalition in parliamentary, county assembly and...
Crisis looms after electoral body splits over claims of opaque vote tallying in the country's closest ever poll – Odinga's coalition is set to challenge results
It took two delayed attempts and the intervention of riot police before election chief Wafula Chebukati could announce that Deputy President William Ruto had won the presidential elections...
Both the presidential frontrunners say they are heading for victory on 9 August in an election that will be decided by turnout in key battleground regions
The presidential election on 9 August is on a knife edge as the campaigns draws to a close amid mounting concerns about the independence and efficiency of the...
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A dysfunctional electoral commission is targeted again amid growing fears of vote manipulation and political interference
Whatever doubts existed about the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission’s ability to supervise next week’s general election have only deepened in the final stretch of the campaigns.
Kenyan lawmakers joining Parliament and county assemblies after the 9 August general elections will receive fewer perks than their predecessors, though that will still leave them among the...
New President Hassan Sheikh has to respond to the imminent deaths of tens of thousands from starvation – a calamity which his foes, local and foreign, will try to exploit
The worsening drought and food crisis in Somalia – where someone is likely to die every 48 seconds from acute hunger linked to conflict according to British aid...
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The new president has been touring the region, gauging his support among the neighbours and geopolitical heavyweights as tensions build
With funding and diplomatic attention diverted to Ukraine, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his fellow leaders in the Horn of Africa are trying to manage the region's security...
An election campaign focused more on insults than policy is doing little to calm fears about disputed results
Ahead of the 9 August presidential elections, former prime minister Raila Odinga has eked out a narrow opinion poll lead over Deputy President William Ruto in recent weeks,...
Tensions may be easing between Addis and Tigray, but in Oromia the bitterness of ethno-nationalist conflict remains strong
The intensity of violence between Oromo and Amhara communities is militating against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's attempts to co-opt moderates on both sides, as fresh atrocities multiply and...
The junta's declaration of a new way to rule the country leaves the opposition unable to decide on what to do. But Burhan is also out of options
Ever since Gen Abdel Fattah al Burhan declared on television that the army and civilians would have separate responsibilities in running the country on 4 July, Sudanese have...
The confirmation by the United States Senate that Hewlett Packard chief executive Margaret Whitman will take over as Washington's Ambassador to Kenya, as the US Commerce department announced...
Massive demonstrations and killings by the security forces are straining relations in the ruling junta as leaders consider their options
The 33rd anniversary of the coup that brought Omer Hassan el Beshir to power on 30 June 1989 was always going to be a test for both the...
The ousted transitional government launched an anti-corruption body, but the generals suspended it when it did its job too well
At the heart of the power struggles between civilians and the military in Sudan is a body whose full name is as daunting as the mission it was...
A mix of business people and political jobbers are eyeing parliamentary seats and plum county governorships
The sharpest focus is on the presidential election battle between Raila Odinga and William Ruto, but the 9 August elections will also see some fierce contests in the...
Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen will lead a seven-member team in upcoming peace talks aimed at resolving the conflict in Tigray province. The other members are Minister of...
The Islamist militia let the cameras in to demonstrate its durability as a force but then suffered a major defeat to a Sufi militia
The normally secretive Al Shabaab shed its shyness on London's Channel 4 News on 15 June in a filmed report from training grounds in Somalia, featuring one of...
Of all the promises made on the campaign trail, Kenyan presidential contender Raila Odinga's plans to curb the import of second-hand clothes, known as mitumba, has caused the...
General Burhan's alliance with Islamist forces is blocking progress on talks to restart the transition and end Khartoum's isolation
A week of false starts and crisis talks to reinstate the transition to elections and constitutional rule made clear there is no prospect of progress without the participation...
Psephology not ideology informs the rival candidates' campaigns as the election race tightens
With few substantive policies in dispute, the presidential election on 9 August between front runners William Ruto and Raila Odinga is testing their capacity to stitch together the...
Abiy seems to be mulling peace with Tigray, but this could pit him against his former allies and deepen other conflicts
While humanitarian aid deliveries to Ethiopia's war-torn northern Tigray region have increased since a truce was announced in March, they have been nowhere near enough to resolve acute...
The new president sets a new agenda, with new foreign friends and ideas to tackle the Al Shabaab insurgents – all amid a devastating drought
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's presidency is off to an energetic start with a major reorientation of Somalia's regional alliances, a return to federalist and devolutionary policies, and a...
The Prime Minister needs to look firm to his ethno-nationalist allies while appearing to concede western demands to deepen the Tigray truce
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has skilfully managed alliances with Oromo and Amhara political groups ever since he came to power in April 2018. He used them to obtain...
Addis Ababa is trying to regain finance and investment from the West but continues to support Russia at the UN
As a two-months-old ceasefire with fighters in the northern Tigray region risks unravelling, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is grappling with multiple national and international contradictions.
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After weeks of speculation, the running mates selected by presidential aspirants Raila Odinga and William Ruto confirmed what has been apparent for several years: the next president will...
The election went better than expected but may unsettle Addis Ababa and Asmara
Within hours of his election on 15 May Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, a 66-year-old former president and founder of a private university, was warmly congratulated by international and regional...
Shorn of political alternatives and determined to remain in power, the junta is falling back on Islamists of all stripes to shore up the regime
Six months after the Sudanese military seized power again, a new reality is taking shape for the junta. Whether it was always part of the military's aims, or...
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The junta's second-in-command's parallel armed forces and business interests give him muscle but win him few friends
General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti', number two in Sudan's ruling Sovereign Council, is under pressure from all sides, as his relations deteriorate with the military, increasingly powerful Islamists...
Parliament looks like picking a new president on 15 May because the incumbent has alienated far too many MPs
Looked at from the perspective of last April, the latest political developments seem improbable, even absurd. A year ago Mogadishu was on a war footing and President Mohamed...
Nairobi has assembled regional states to fight Congolese armed groups, but they include the very countries the groups depend on for aid
An agreement by regional governments to form a joint military force to deploy against armed groups in Congo-Kinshasa looks like a diplomatic masterstroke by Kenya, which is coordinating...
Devolution was supposed to help bridge the yawning gap between Kenya's rich and poor counties by driving fairer allocation of resources. In reality, it is at best slowing...
Under international pressure, the federal government promised a truce in Tigray but is now losing ground to the Oromo insurgency
Just weeks after its 24 March announcement of an 'indefinite humanitarian truce' in the civil war in northern Ethiopia centred around the defiant Tigray region, the federal government...
Prime Minister Abiy’s plan for a unitary state and a modern economy is challenged by myriad local and regional rebellions
The mushrooming Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) insurgency is just one of many security challenges to the federal government in Addis Ababa that have spread since Abiy Ahmed took...
The presidential candidates are agonising about their running mates as the deadline for nominations approaches
Coalition and power-sharing deals have been struck ahead of the 9 August presidential elections so the next question is the choice of presidential running mates, as the deadline...
Vol 63 No 9 |
- RWANDA
- UGANDA
With the help of a high-level organising committee, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba marked his 48th birthday with a bash at Lugogo Cricket Oval in Kampala that amounted to a...
One of the region's most eminent economists, Kibaki stoked growth and cut debt but failed to rein in the corrupt and thuggish barons on all sides of the system
The rival presidential candidates Deputy President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga have heaped praise on former President Emilio Mwai Kibaki, who has died at 90....
Vol 63 No 9 |
- RWANDA
- BRITAIN
The arrangement under which London could send asylum-seekers to Kigali would be politically useful for both countries' leaders
Britain's plan to send asylum-seekers who cross the English Channel to Rwanda was due to start next month but faces serious legal challenges which could delay its introduction...
The two candidates want to cherry-pick from President Kenyatta's legacy and avoid responsibility for the growing debt burden
The irony of having an election contest between a Deputy President campaigning in opposition to his government and an opponent endorsed by the President is lost on few...
Sudan's head of state, General Abdel Fattah al Burhan, and his deputy are courting rival powers to fight their corner in an undeclared battle for supremacy ahead of...
Intensifying competition between the US, Russia, China and the Gulf states boosts the strategic importance of Somaliland's port
Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi's trip to Washington DC last month may not have resulted in an exchange of ambassadors, but it looks as though the statelet will...
Presidential contender Raila Odinga pledges to revive his constitutional reform ideas should he win in August's elections
The Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) was the most tangible policy outcome of the 2018 'handshake’ between President Uhuru Kenyatta and erstwhile opposition leader Raila Odinga but on 31...
The latest Al Shabaab attacks, which may have had some security backing, aimed to delay the polls again
On 23 March Al Shabaab suicide bombers struck hard in the capital and Beled Weyne, focusing on the heavily-fortified Mogadishu airport complex which houses UN offices and foreign...
A new front has opened in the long-running battle for compensation for the non-American victims of the 1998 bombings of the United States embassies in Kenya and Tanzania....
General Hemeti's trip to Moscow seems to have produced little more than a spate of reports about Khartoum's gold smuggling
Spiralling wheat prices and the crashing Sudanese pound are firing up still more determined protests against the military regime, testing the unity of the junta's component parts, particularly...
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The federal government and Tigray agree on the urgency of substantive negotiations but still lack the political will to start them
Addressing an emergency session of Parliament in late February, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was clear: 'There has been no negotiation [with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front] as yet',...
Overseas trips by the two leading presidential contenders have done little to calm foreign nerves about prospects for the August elections
Kenyans have been given a short break from the day-to-day drama of election rallies and media debates as presidential candidates Deputy President William Ruto and ex-Prime Minister Raila...
A group of seven Tanzanians will have their day in the High Court in London on 17 March when subsidiaries of Canada-based Barrick Gold face allegations of unlawful...
General Burhan's alliance with a powerful militia and rebels is unravelling as he faces coup plots and street protests
After seizing total power, the ruling generals are facing an increasingly determined and resourceful civilian opposition and are struggling to keep rival armed factions on-side as the country's...
The release of 23 men detained on terrorism charges suggests a shift in the country's counter-terrorism strategy.
A ten-day tour of the United States and Britain at the beginning of March marks Deputy President William Ruto's most important trip yet ahead of August's presidential elections....
The Islamist militia's offensive has increased in tempo but the national army has been holding its own as it looks as though the US will become more involved
Al Shabaab launched more attacks in January and February than it had during all of last year. Most serious was its coordinated attack on 18 February in several...
As Addis Ababa counts the costs of the war, parliament lifts the state of emergency then sets up a National Dialogue Commission
Whatever their relation to reality, the messages from the prime minister's office are clear: the war is largely over, the government is open to negotiations and is pushing...
Underneath bland mainstream media coverage, social media and vernacular broadcast stations are stirring ethnic divisions
Hopes for credible and peaceful national elections in August are getting shakier. Hate speech and ethnic-baiting in local languages are back in force. Frustrated by official complacency, many...
President Uhuru Kenyatta's government is trying again to secure the Commonwealth Secretary-General post, running an energetic campaign on behalf of its candidate, Monica Juma. Cabinet Secretary for Energy,...
Tanzania's Energy Minister, January Makamba, continued his attempt to rejuvenate the power sector by announcing a clear-out of all the staff of the troubled power utility Tanzanian Electricity...
Voter registration ahead of the August general election is low because people are disillusioned with politicians and the system, say analysts and activists, and also because of backlogs...
Vol 63 No 3 |
- RWANDA
- UGANDA
President Museveni's son and putative successor played key role in sensitive negotiations as Kampala and Kigali discuss new regional security threats
The agreement between Uganda's General Muhoozi Kainerugaba and Rwanda's President Paul Kagame to re-open their countries' common land border on 31 January was driven by economic logic but...
Western officials banged heads together in Mogadishu to forestall more clashes and force agreement. Polling should now end by 25 February
The country has stepped back from the brink once more as the tension eased between President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo' and the man he suspended as prime minister,...
Polarised parliamentary battles on an elections bill reflect starker ethnic divisions within the country at large
After filibusters and fisticuffs in parliament before Christmas, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his chosen successor Raila Odinga got what they wanted on 8 January, when the National Assembly...
Addis Ababa released some prisoners and Tigray proposed a ceasefire. But despite weakened forces, there is little prospect of negotiations
The slowing of military operations follows 14 months of fighting which have inflicted heavy losses on both the Federal army and the Tigray forces and killed thousands of...
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Vol 63 No 2 |
- UGANDA
- NORWAY
Norway's Auditor-General has uncovered millions of dollars in hidden administrative costs after probing a US$100 million grant to Uganda. The grant was from the Global Partnership for Education...
Over 40 retired officers, including several former generals, have written to military leader General Abdel Fattah al Burhan warning that his position is weakening in the face of...
After lengthy anti-corruption investigations, a former first lady, an ex-finance minister and their business allies face trial
When former president Albert René died in 2019, his opponents said it was a pity he never stood trial for corruption. Notoriously ruthless, he ruled the islands as...
Intended as a conciliatory move, the release of political prisoners has met with calls to intensify the war with Tigray
When the federal government released several high-profile political prisoners this month, supporting its planned 'national dialogue', leading Amhara politicians hit back warning that the move should not signal...
A one-sided dialogue is unlikely to deliver peace as Prime Minister Abiy pushes for total victory
Both sides in the war between federal and Tigrayan forces will condition their willingness to negotiate on the military situation. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed starts the year having...
Government is on hold as a presidential race reliant on personalities and corralling regional blocs takes centre stage
Big challenges to President Uhuru Kenyatta's government are looming this year on the economic management front and on regional security. But barring a phenomenal new crisis, the political...
The battle between the generals and the resistance committees is intensifying after the exit of Prime Minister Hamdok
The resignation of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok on 2 January ended the transition to civil rule and elections as defined in the August 2019 agreement. But it has...
The President's corruption of the electoral process has weakened security, presaging a more authoritarian politics
Hopes that the elections would open a new political chapter and more accountable governance look misplaced. Even if the troubled presidential elections are held in 2022, they're unlikely...