The putative opposition is enjoying its five seats in government but is hedging its bets before committing to a formal coalition with Ruto
Even by the standards of Kenyan politics, where the bitterest political enemies in one election can become close allies at the next, the five members of Raila Odinga’s...
After Irro’s victory, the government must respond to demands on corruption and jobs as it tries to hold the territory together
The decisive victory for Abdirahman Mahamed Abdullahi Irro with 64% in the 13 November presidential elections should be seen as the culmination of two years of politicking during...
A wave of murders and abductions at the hands of the police has prompted condemnation from civic activists and diplomats
Initial hopes that the mass protests in June against state corruption and police brutality would persuade President William Samoei Ruto to make the government more accountable were overblown....
The EU’s difficult relations with Rwanda were exposed last week when a series of MEPs demanded that Brussels’s minerals deal with Kigali be re-opened or scrapped because of...
There are indications Eritrea’s secretive president Issayas Afewerki is planning a rare congress of the country’s only legal party – the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ).
Pushing out Gachagua could cost the President votes and doesn’t alleviate the deepening financial woes
For all the ‘sturm und drang’ over the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua it is still unclear why he and President William Samoei Ruto fell out.
The furore over Mozambique’s national elections this month may complicate Rwanda’s military role in the northern Cabo Delgado province
Rwanda’s military, invited by President Filipe Nyusi to push back insurgents and guard the gas export plant in Cabo Delgado, is expanding its security operations and business interests...
Buoyed by foreign backers and ignoring civilian casualties, both Burhan and Hemeti claim a breakthrough is in sight
For the next few months of the dry season, the rival factions look set to concentrate their forces in the devastating battles for control of two cities and...
READ FOR FREE
If Raila Odinga has name recognition across the continent, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf has the contact book. That, at least, is the argument at the heart of Djibouti’s bid...
The confirmation of Rigathi Gachagua’s defenestration as deputy president by the Senate as Africa Confidential went to press has left Mount Kenya and the Gikuyu community weighing up...
The Zaghawa are turning against the President’s arms shipment deals with the UAE and backing for Hemeti’s RSF militia
Two raging urban battles – in Khartoum and El Fasher in North Darfur – could determine the next stage in Sudan’s devastating war: the de facto partition of...
When MPs voted to impeach Gachagua they raised more questions about the Ruto government’s political direction
In the end it was a rout. Out of 345 seats currently occupied in the National Assembly, 293 MPs voted to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, comfortably above...
Massive human rights abuses, including the murder and rape of refugees and blockades of humanitarian aid, have been committed by the Rwandan army and the M23 militia group...
Vol 65 No 20 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Juba is delaying elections for another two years as it organises a census, a political party register and a new constitution
The latest extension of the transitional government’s rule comes as regional instability spreads and South Sudan’s oil revenues crash. On 13 September, the Juba government announced it was...
Egypt and Somalia have signed a military pact to scupper Ethiopia’s trade-off with Somaliland for a port in the Gulf of Aden
Nothing better illustrates the radical shift in regional relations than the defence agreement signed by Egypt and the Federal Government of Somalia on 14 August, two days after...
READ FOR FREE
Vol 65 No 19 |
- KENYA
- CHINA
Although most western media paid it little attention, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, held from 4 to 6 September, received near wall-to-wall coverage across swathes of Africa. FOCAC’s...
Government forecasts strong growth but its shifts on devaluation and economic liberalisation will have to show results quickly
Backed by a US$3.4 billion IMF extended credit facility (ECF), Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration has a fighting chance to return the national finances to debt sustainability and...
Kisumu governor Anyang’ Nyong’o will head the ODM while Raila focuses on his AU campaign
After more than two decades as opposition leader, Raila Odinga is hanging up his spurs, at least temporarily and leaving a critically damaged opposition in his wake. After...
The fight for control of the ruling TPLF is slowing the region’s post-war recovery and playing into the hands of the federal government
Instead of moving towards the much-discussed national reconciliation, Ethiopia is grappling with a new bout of regional factionalism. The two largest regions, Oromia and Amhara, are already plagued...
General Burhan’s refusal to attend talks may prompt new negotiating strategy benefiting Hemeti’s fighters
One of the ‘seeds of hope’ identified by United States envoy Tom Perriello as the Sudan peace talks in Switzerland broke up on 23 August was an accord...
The political ambitions and unfathomable greed of the rival leaders are driving their country to destruction
It is a mark of the intractability of the conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that during the peace talks in Switzerland...
A multi-billion-dollar financing programme and debt restructuring deal are taking shape but the political risks are high at home and in the region
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s grand plan to raise over US$10 billion from international financial institutions and the restructuring of Ethiopia’s $28bn foreign debt after defaulting on its Eurobond...
Vol 65 No 18 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Prospects of an election being held before a 22 December deadline are fading rapidly with a number of political groups both in opposition and in the transitional government...
On 28 August, former Samburu governor Moses Lenolkulal was convicted of corruption and told to repay 84.5 million shillings (US$600,000) or face eight years in prison. Lenolkulal served...
Its francophone rivals divided, Nairobi has locked up a majority of the votes ahead of the AU election
Amid regional turbulence, President William Ruto showed Kenya’s pulling power with a star-studded launch on 27 August for his former foe, Raila Odinga’s campaign to lead the African...
Both the president and opposition leader benefit from the national unity government, but there are plenty of losers
The odd man out in the latest round of political musical chairs is Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua as Kenya’s political parties realign to prepare for the 2027...
Without spelling out her plan to seek election next year, President Samia is cracking down on opponents and rivals in the ruling party
The arrests of hundreds of opposition leaders and activists planning to attend rallies marking International Youth Day, suggests that the spirit of former President John Magufuli lives on...
On 2 August at 9.50pm at Lido Beach, Al Shabaab launched its deadliest attack in Mogadishu since two car-bombs claimed 121 lives and hundreds of casualties in the...
Hemeti and his sponsors in the United Arab Emirates are exploiting the Sudan Armed Forces’ clumsy diplomacy
The Sudan peace talks which started in Geneva on 14 August mark a new phase in the posturing and positioning that has derailed so much of the diplomacy...
Challenging President Ruto after the protests, Fred Matiang’i has hired US lobbyists to help fend off legal cases
Former Interior minister Fred Matiang'i says he is preparing to run for Kenya’s presidency in 2027 after falling out with President William Ruto and having his Nairobi home...
In a move to quell growing dissatisfaction with his government, President Ruto has nominated allies of the main opposition leader to his cabinet
Four ministries, including the Treasury, was the price Raila Odinga set for propping up William Ruto’s ailing presidency and to establish what is effectively Kenya’s first unity government...
Foreign exchange reform will remove market distortions, but is the economy entering a danger zone of further devaluation and greater inflation?
The quid pro quo that Addis Ababa will gain from the international financial institutions and from sundry investors and creditors must have reassured Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that...
Vol 65 No 16 |
- ETHIOPIA
- SOMALIA
On 15 July, local militias on the outskirts of Abudwaq, in Galmudug, stopped a convoy of two trucks loaded with infantry weapons coming from Ethiopia and led by...
A three-month impasse over the EU’s choice of Special Representative for the Great Lakes Region has been resolved with the appointment of Swedish diplomat Johan Borgstam. The episode...
Vol 65 No 16 |
- ETHIOPIA
- SOMALIA
Fearing big losses if Addis Ababa’s port access deal with Somaliland goes ahead, President Guelleh wants to scupper it
Battle drums are sounding, but the casus belli is still being determined. Nobody yet knows whether the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and...
Weeks of protests sparked by punitive tax hikes have morphed into a wider revolt, pushing the President on the defensive
The sense of chaos coming from State House in Nairobi is palpable. Having fired his government and accepted the resignation of Inspector General of Police Japhet Koome, President...
President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s decision last week to appoint her third head of intelligence in less than two years is the latest part of a wider reshuffle of...
Winning the three previous elections with more than 90% was not enough for President Paul Kagame. Partial results announced on 16 July gave the president a Soviet-style 99.15%...
UN Security Council mulls crisis after experts say 3,000-4,000 Rwandan troops are fighting alongside M23 militia in Congo
The most damning assertion in the latest report by the UN Group of Experts (GoE) on Congo-Kinshasa, that 3,000-4,000 Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) troops had ‘de facto control’...
The Pretoria deal stopped large-scale combat but didn’t resolve the disputes over territory and resources
The rebellions and counter-insurgency operations causing havoc in Ethiopia’s two largest regions, Amhara and Oromia, have overshadowed the aftermath of the two-year civil war centred on the dissident...
The Rapid Support Forces have the upper hand but neither side has a prospect of final victory, and the food emergency is intensifying
The war between General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Hemeti’ and General Abdel Fattah al Burhan’s forces ebbs and flows with only one certainty – that the position of civilians...
Neighbouring states are staking out their positions after serial peace efforts have failed to rein in Sudan’s rival military factions
With over 10 million people internally displaced and a further two million forced to flee to Chad, Egypt and South Sudan, the war between Sudan’s rival miliary factions...
After dropping the planned tax hikes, President Ruto insists he is listening to the protestors’ calls for change
As they regroup from the political defeat of 26 June, President William Ruto and his finance minister Njuguna Ndung’u are torn between the demands of a highly organised...
READ FOR FREE
Wrongfooted by national demonstrations, state security officers are suspected of sabotage and running agents provocateurs
After their protests forced President William Ruto to abandon the government’s Finance Bill and its planned US$2.4 billion tax rises, the Generation Z activists face their own political...
Vol 65 No 14 |
- SOMALIA
- PUNTLAND
Fighters from ISIS or Da’ish are extending operations beyond the Puntland enclave to challenge Al Shabaab, the main Islamist militia in Somalia
The isolated Horn of Africa branch of ISIS or Da’ish, outnumbered and outgunned hitherto by Al Shabaab, the trustiest affiliate of the rival Al Qaida franchise, has been...
Ethiopia’s accord with Somaliland on access to the sea angers Mogadishu as the UAE pushes its side in the fight
Regional concerns are mounting over the mooted quid pro quo between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Muse Bihi Abdi in which Ethiopia gets a port in the...
Government backs down over tax hikes but is accused of killing over 20 protestors after hundreds of thousands took to the streets
In response to the biggest national protest for decades – activists marched in 35 out of Kenya’s 47 counties – President William Ruto announced on 26 June he...
A new report suggests the Rwandan government’s backers on X have been using Large Language Models to flood the platform
A coordinated online campaign promoting the Rwandan government’s projects and policies has been caught using Large Language Models (LLMs), including ChatGPT, and related Artificial Intelligence tools to mass-produce...
READ FOR FREE
Two of the strongest opposition candidates have been barred from running, handing incumbent Paul Kagame another Soviet-style win
Few Rwandans are expecting surprises when they head to the polls on 15 July to vote in the country’s general election. The three candidates cleared to run for...
President William Ruto holds up carbon trading as his country’s next big export but climate activists want much tighter controls
By elevating carbon credits to the top of the climate finance agenda President William Ruto has made Kenya a key player on environment policy in Africa. He has...
Opposition activists are urging the country’s most powerful monarchy to take a tougher stance against the ruling party
As concerns grow about the health of the country’s most powerful monarch, Kabaka (King) Ronald Muwenda Mutebi, 69, a dispute has opened up about the Buganda kingdom taking...
A year ago, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) had pretensions of establishing a one-party state modelled on Daniel arap Moi’s Kenya African National Union. Instead, it looks more...
Insurgencies rage in the three largest regions but the Prime Minister has reinforced his grip on the capital
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's political shapeshifting has cost him popular support in the Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions leaving only those in power in Addis Ababa and the...
Washington offers military deals and pushes hefty investments as Kenya's President is feted in the US capital
Investment deals worth billions of dollars may have been secured, but geopolitics was the main agenda item during President William Ruto's four-day state visit to the United States...
Raila Odinga is looking increasingly odds-on to become the next chair of the African Union Commission (AUC). If successful, he will have an old ally with him in...
A 10,000-strong African force is mooted as officials plan to wind down UN peacekeeping operations
Set up at the end of the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) on 31 March 2022, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) was supposed to...
Military chief and dauphin General Muhoozi leads the campaign to win the 2026 election – frustrating dissident officers
At a private dinner party last month to mark his retirement from the military, a senior officer told close friends that he was relieved not to have to...
The United Democratic Alliance existed only on paper in 2021. Three years later, President William Ruto's dominance over Kenyan politics is such that having the UDA ticket can...
Vol 65 No 10 |
- UGANDA
- BRITAIN
Facing British travel bans and asset freezes over state theft scandal, Speaker Anita Among claims she is being targeted for her anti-LGBTQ+ stance
When asked about her involvement in corrupt schemes, Anita Among, Speaker of the parliament in Kampala, usually argues she is being singled out by foreigners for her energetic...
Questions surround President Ruto's security plans after he reshuffles the top military jobs for the second time in two months
Regarded as sure-footed on politics and diplomacy, President William Samoei Ruto's management of security policy in a troubled region has been prompting questions about where he wants to...
Vol 65 No 10 |
- RWANDA
- ENERGY
The President's obsession with boosting electricity generation created massive debt and over-capacity
Unthinking obedience to directives from President Paul Kagame to meet unnecessarily high targets for greater generating capacity have damaged Rwanda's electricity industry and restricted public access to power,...
After a year of fighting that has all but destroyed the country, outsiders either ignore or sponsor the rival military factions
It was a cruelly surreal moment after a year of what has become the world's most destructive war, with over 8 million people driven from their homes and...
Obsessed by Gaza and Ukraine, delegates couldn’t agree on a path to restart ceasefire negotiations
On 15 April, a year after war between the rival military factions broke out in Sudan, France's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the European Union hosted an international...
Francis Ogolla was an unlikely pick as military chief by President Ruto. His untimely death could allow Ruto to handpick his own securocrats
The death of General Francis Ogolla, the Commander of the Kenya Defence Forces, on 18 April, prompted an outpouring of eulogies across party lines that was exceptional even...
Vol 65 No 9 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
The world's newest state still awaits its first post-independence elections – now scheduled for December – which are supposed to end almost a decade of civil war. But...
Moderna's mothballing of a $200m vaccine plant has prompted a backlash from politicians and health professionals
When United States' pharmaceutical giant Moderna halted plans for a US$200 million vaccine factory near Nairobi it dealt a double-blow: to Kenya's ambitions as a healthcare manufacturing...
Among the most effective in Africa, Rwanda's army has exported the conflict to eastern Congo-Kinshasa, reshaping national politics en route
The genocide of Tutsi and massacre of Hutu 'moderates' launched on 7 April 1994 and perpetrated by the Forces Armées Rwandaises (FAR), and the Interahamwe Hutu militia it...
The latest confrontation puts the popular new constitution at risk, adding to the woe caused by Addis’s port deal with Somaliland
Regional President Said Abdullahi Deni has taken Puntland out of Somalia's federal system, sparking a political crisis that weakens national unity and threatens the devolution painstakingly constructed over...
Determined to avoid lengthy finance talks, the President gambles he can fix the economy before the next elections
Will President William Ruto's strategy – austerity now, pre-election bonanza later – pay off as Kenyans face another year of spending cuts and higher taxes? Ruto calculates that...
With Raila Odinga's path towards the African Union chair's job looking ever more clear, the race to succeed him as the voice of Kenya's opposition is hotting up.
Elected on promises of judicial and political reform, Wavel Ramkalawan's government is struggling to hold its predecessor to account
The attempts by President Wavel Ramkalawan and his Linyon Demokratik Seselwa (LDS) party to prosecute top officials of the Albert René government for terrorism and corruption are in...
President Ruto has become an everyman of international summitry but is he leaving his top advisors sidelined?
For a politician whose skills were seen as being centred entirely on domestic politics before winning the presidency in August 2022, William Ruto has quickly established a reputation...
Speaker Among refuses to hear charges of misuse of public funds by her office as more evidence emerges of efforts to bribe the opposition
Parliamentary Speaker Anita Among has refused to answer charges that she has obtained millions of dollars' worth of expenses and allowances she was not entitled to that were...
The audit of the controversial August 2022 presidential elections and the scope of its mandate have been the most disputed topic facing the bipartisan National Dialogue Committee (NADCO),...
Manoeuvring in Mogadishu for the elections is diverting focus from the war on Al Shabaab and the pirates are returning to the high seas
Analysis of recent security lapses in and around Mogadishu show the government in Mogadishu is in danger of losing much of the ground it gained in the fight...
In his latest military shuffle, the President appoints his son Muhoozi as army chief and sidelines his critics
In the clearest indication of his plans for the succession to date, President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni appointed his son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as head of Uganda's military on...
After a year of the generals' war, the UN says the country is weeks away from a 'catastrophic hunger crisis'
International alignments on the Sudan civil war are shifting and there are multiple attempts to revive the stalled talks for a ceasefire ahead of a feared escalation in...
Disregarding economic woes, President Ruto has asserted his authority over the ruling party and its opponents
Laments over spiralling prices and multiplying taxes on transactions dominate conversations in Kenya's cities and towns these days. President William Ruto's strategy of pushing through austerity policies instead...
After the devastating human cost of the Tigray war comes its destruction of the country’s economic base
Almost six years since taking office, Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed presides over an economy that falls far short of the grand ambitions set forth in the 2019...
Abiy Ahmed’s government is edging towards an IMF deal as it approaches a March deadline for a debt agreement
Three years after Ethiopia officially requested relief under the G20-backed Common Framework for debt treatments beyond the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's administration is...
READ FOR FREE
Vol 65 No 6 |
- TANZANIA
- UGANDA
Two years after the final investment decision to construct the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) was taken, the US$5 billion project is limping on to an uncertain...
The proxy war between Kinshasa and Kigali is derailing the European Union's plan to secure critical minerals
Three days after an angry meeting between Congo-Kinshasa's President Félix Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame on 16 February in Addis Ababa over the escalating regional conflict,...
President Kagame's strategic position is facing growing regional pressure
Rwanda has warned the Africa Union that it would see any support for the South African-led regional intervention force against the M-23 militia in eastern Congo-Kinshasa as a...
The opposition party is under pressure from not only the government but also its own socially conservative supporters
Supporters of Uganda's biggest opposition political party, the National Unity Platform (NUP) of Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu 'Bobi Wine', are warning that generational jealousy and pressures to compromise could...
Despite his burning ambition the late Edward Lowassa was ever the bridesmaid and never the bride, but his career exemplified national politics
Edward Lowassa, who has died aged 70, was a close friend, confidant and ally of ex-President Jakaya Kikwete who spent a fortune advancing his prospects and embracing any...
Loyalists to Abiy Ahmed turned dissidents take their case to the US capital to lobby Congress and the Biden administration
The ultra-nationalist Amhara Fano Unity Council (AFUC) led by Fano militia leader Mihret Wodajo is stepping up its political advocacy in the United States after registering lobbyists...
Nairobi's Treasury joins borrowers paying over 10% interest to meet escalating debt service demands
At the heart of the government's plan to issue US$1.5 billion of debt at 10.375% for a buy-back deal is President William Ruto's determination to avoid protracted debt...
Last October, President William Ruto vowed that by the end of 2023, travellers would no longer have to 'carry the burden of applying for a visa to come...
Whether the foreign minister jumped or was pushed, the lesson is clear – zero tolerance for debate in government
The fall-out that triggered the exit of long-serving Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Demeke Mekonnen is another sign of the widening gap between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed...
A civilian initiative to bring the warring factions to the negotiating table may be the last defence against a war that would shatter the country
Two opportunities to broker a ceasefire in Sudan's ruinous civil war have been arbitrarily waived aside in the new year by the warring generals' cohorts, raising concerns of...
After fleeing Kenya in late 2008 and resisting extradition from the United Kingdom since 2011, the former CEO of Triton Oil, one of Kenya's biggest oil importers, Yagnesh...
President Samia won praise for mitigating her predecessor's authoritarianism, but his loyalists are on the march again and she is accommodating them
The outspoken Paul Makonda, who has just been appointed to a key ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) post, is fast emerging as the leader of a new dawn...
Chief Justice Martha Koome has pushed back hard after the President accused the judiciary of chronic corruption
The presidency could lose badly if the sniping between it and the judiciary escalates. In his New Year's address, President William Ruto accused opposition leaders of using the...
A hasty deal offering recognition of Somaliland's sovereignty and a port for Ethiopia has angered the region
By announcing a trade-off on New Year's Day – putative recognition of Somaliland's 'independence' in exchange for access to the Gulf of Aden – Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy...
There were high hopes of a resolution to the OLA insurgency, but the will is not yet there on the rebel side and Abiy fears a deal may alienate other regions
The outlook for a settlement between the government and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has taken a hit: fighting has resumed after peace talks ended in acrimony late...
Focused on consolidating power, the junta leader is bringing rivals into the tent and trying to avoid more entanglements in Sudan
The devastating war in Sudan and awkward relations with France and the United Arab Emirates are casting a long shadow over Chad this year as its military leader...
Security services in Rwanda are working with a self-described 'white-hat hacker' to take down their foes
Hostilities are reopening between the security services in Kigali and 'Hotel Rwanda' activist Paul Rusesabagina after their agreement in March 2023. Under the deal Rusesabagina's 25-year sentence was...
The President's political dominance after his first full year in office is near total
The speed at which William Ruto shoe-horned his allies into key positions in the political and economic system after his election as president less than 18 months ago...
Prime minister Abiy's diplomatic ploy may distract attention from a weakening central state and economy
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's announcement on New Year's Day that his country would be granted access to the Red Sea by the breakaway republic of Somaliland illustrates his...