The government says it's mopping up the last pockets of resistance in Tigray as evidence of Eritrean involvement emerges
Two weeks after he declared the completion of his 'law and order operation' on 28 November with the capture of Mekelle, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited the Tigray...
Splits over US pressure to normalise ties with Israel point to a fall-out between civilian politicians and the generals
The removal of Sudan from the United States's list of state sponsors of terrorism, confirmed on 14 December, could prove a lifeline to a country in the grip...
Vol 61 No 25 |
- KENYA
- SOMALIA
By expelling the Kenyan ambassador and then doubling down by severing all diplomatic ties with its southern neighbour, President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo' appears to be hoping that...
The opposition is furious with the dual role of the secret police chief as Farmajo's campaign manager and monitor of election candidates
After months of haggling and bitter verbal conflict, parliamentary elections should take place next month, followed by the presidential election in February. Yet it is becoming increasingly clear...
Tigray leaders vow guerrilla war against the Federal government as they withdraw to the hills
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may have declared success for his 'law and order operation' with the fall of Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital, on 28 November, but it is...
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The Federal government’s war with Tigray upsets geopolitics throughout the Horn, and puts Eritrea centre-stage
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's refusal to consider a ceasefire or even mediation continues to attract widespread condemnation. His unflinching stance was underlined when he met an African Union...
The President seems to have run out of subtle tactics for dealing with Bobi Wine’s electoral threat and is resorting to brute force
The dozens of killings by security forces in recent opposition protests indicate the Ugandan authorities intend to rely on brutal repression to cow the population, intimidate voters, and...
What lies behind the arrival of Paul Gicheru at the ICC after years defying an arrest warrant for alleged witness-tampering?
Weeks after Kenyan lawyer Paul Gicheru handed himself in to the International Criminal Court to face witness-tampering charges, the speed with which he has been processed through the...
Vol 61 No 24 |
- ETHIOPIA
- SOMALIA
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is known for tolerating little dissent in his cabinet, but less well known for being able to decide the fate of ministers in other...
Vol 61 No 24 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
Tumbling oil revenues have severely dented government finances, as debts mount and donors baulk at picking up the bill
South Sudan's economy is dead on its feet. Falling oil prices have squeezed government revenues, sending hard currency reserves tumbling and inflation soaring. Political stability may now rest...
The Prime Minister's attack on Tigray and his push for a unitary state raises concerns about political autonomy in other regions
It is the beginning of the end, insisted Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on 17 November as federal forces started marching on Mekelle, the regional capital of Tigray. The...
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The Prime Minister’s stonewalling of peace overtures is winning him few friends as disputes beyond Tigray are confronting Addis
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been steadfast in rejecting widespread calls for negotiations since fighting broke out with Tigray on 4 November, ignoring appeals from the United Nations,...
A new report is supposed to be the blueprint for sweeping reforms but it has deepened the split between the president and his deputy
Three years after President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election in polls boycotted by opposition leader Raila Odinga, the two erstwhile rivals sat on a red-carpeted podium at the Bomas...
Talks are spurned and both sides dig in as federal forces take on Tigray's regional government
With air strikes and more troops, on 8 November Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stepped up the federal government's campaign to drive the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) from...
The President’s spies and soldiers are fighting each other, not just the opposition, ahead of elections in February
President Yoweri Museveni has been reshuffling his security chiefs after rivalries broke into the open, threatening the cohesion of the state's repressive apparatus. On 8 October Colonel Kaka...
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The President has carried out a crude electoral coup and reduced the opposition to a token presence in parliament
After an election campaign dubbed the least free since multiparty democracy began in 1995, President John Magufuli won his second term of office with the biggest majority since...
Many noted the bitter irony of President John Magufuli's government arresting all the leaders of Tanzania's opposition parties on clearly absurd terrorism charges (see Feature) at a time...
The government has turned down debt deferral and plans to increase borrowing, prompting growing doubts about its judgement
President Uhuru Kenyatta's government insists it will not take advantage of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) offered by the Group of 20 wealthy nations to mitigate the...
Vol 61 No 21 |
- TANZANIA
- UGANDA
Election worries and weak oil prices persuaded Uganda’s President to make concessions on the oil export pipeline via Tanzania
East Africa's leading resource nationalists – President Yoweri Museveni and John Magufuli – have signed one of Africa's biggest oil pipeline deals as they campaign fiercely in national...
The northern province’s ruling council lays down the gauntlet with its refusal to recognise the Addis Ababa government
After running an election for Tigray's State Council in defiance of federal authority last month, which the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) won by a landslide, the party's...
Uganda's Chief of Defence Forces, General David Muhoozi, is in the spotlight over suspicious dealings with the man who is seeking to deregister a political party he...
After four unsuccessful election attempts, Raila Odinga's path to the presidency now rests on his improbable alliance with President Uhuru Kenyatta. Many in his Luo community still welcome...
As they take the field, the battle between the President and his deputy is testing the limits of ethnic politics
'You should go and insult your mother, not mine' said President Uhuru Kenyatta on 10 September to a small crowd just outside Nairobi. He was referring to two...
Vol 61 No 19 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
The leaders of South Sudan, notorious for its civil war, inconclusive peace deals and corruption, have found $280,500 to hire a lobbyist to try to persuade the United...
The failure of oppositionists Bobi Wine and Kizza Besigye to agree an alliance boosts President Museveni's electoral chances
The country's opposition parties are divided over tactics and local rivalries ahead of national elections next year. The hopes that the political sensation Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine,...
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Years of restrictions and violence against the opposition makes President Magufuli a shoo-in for re-election in October
Tanzania is set for six weeks of phoney election campaigning before, as is widely expected, President John Pombe Magufuli secures a second five-year term on 28 October at...
With mass protests and unofficial elections, oppositionists in Oromia and Tigray are demanding the federal system be redrawn
Although Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government says it is trying to unite a divided Ethiopia, its opponents argue it is dismantling the multinational federation and replacing it with...
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The opposition claims President John Magufuli is pulling out all the stops to prevent its candidates being registered for the October general election, although it is unlikely to...
The celebrated hotel manager turned regime opponent was flown to arrest in Kigali by the President's favourite charter jet company
Paul Rusesabagina, the real-life character behind the 2004 Hollywood movie Hotel Rwanda, ended up on show in Kigali in handcuffs on 4 September raising myriad questions of international...
A trade deal between Nairobi and Washington appears to make political and economic sense for both sides but critics see dangers for Kenyatta
President Donald Trump has used his presidency to launch trade wars against China, the European Union and his North American Free Trade Association partners. His government has blocked...
Normalise relations with Israel and compensate the victims of Al Qaida terrorism was the straightforward message from United States Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, to Sudan's Prime Minister...
As the Building Bridges Initiative stalls, politicians are readying for a battle over the top jobs
The Building Bridges Initiative – the political deal concocted between opposition leader Raila Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta – is in trouble again. Enough trouble to merit requiring...
The government and many armed groups say a ground-breaking peace deal is possible within weeks. But they are yet to convince the sceptics
Suleiman al Dabailo, chairman of Sudan's Peace Commission, is talking up the progress made in power-sharing negotiations between the transitional government and the armed groups from the Darfur,...
Farmajo sacked his premier for not supporting his plan to postpone fair elections further and prolong his time in office
Prime Minister for over three years, Hassan Ali Khaire was unceremoniously sacked on 25 July after an overwhelming parliamentary vote of no-confidence. EU External Affairs Commissioner Josep Borrell...
Not content with being among the world's best-paid politicians, Kenyan lawmakers have ensured that their predecessors are also amply rewarded for their service. On 5 August, after 10...
The murder of a musician-turned-activist and harsh repression has reignited tensions in the Prime Minister’s restive back yard
Oromo nationalists had hoped that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's administration would address their demands after thousands of activists lost their lives in protests that paved the way for...
After several near misses in her search for a top international job, Amina Mohamed is a WTO front-runner. But what does she stand for?
Of all the candidates gunning for the helm of the World Trade Organisation, Amina Mohamed probably ranks as the best prepared for the contest. Along with the rival...
President Farmajo is pushing through a flawed electoral system and the fallout has led to demonstrators taking to the streets of the capital
The main response of the government to the crowds that have gathered to protest the new electoral law and the postponement of elections is to fire shots over...
Two and a half years after being shot 40 times by suspected government gunmen outside the National Assembly in Dodoma, opposition leader Tundu Lissu says he will return...
The obstacles to agreement over managing the Blue Nile dam are more about internal politics than technical issues
The positions of Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam seemed as far apart as their respective capital cities as officials began another round of video-conferencing...
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The President's attempts to co-opt oppositionists has reunited young Turks promoted by the late President Moi
Thirty years after the Saba Saba protests triggered the battle for the restoration of multiparty politics in Kenya, veterans of that struggle might be troubled to see that...
The government campaign against press freedom has gone into overdrive during the coronavirus pandemic. The most recent outlet to fall foul of the country's increasingly harsh censorship of...
Experts say solar power is a better bet than projects like the Stiegler's Gorge dam, which has got the go-ahead in spite of conservationist concern
Plans to build a dam across the Rufiji River at Stiegler's Gorge pre-date Tanzania's independence, but no public or private finance could be found for the venture until...
The budget Minister for Finance and Planning Philip Mpango presented to parliament on 11 June held no surprises for citizens, but the next day's passing of the Finance...
The new president has the chance to soothe neighbours exasperated by his late predecessor's belligerence
Evariste Ndayishimiye was sworn in as Burundi's president on 18 June, 10 days after the sudden death of his predecessor, Pierre Nkurunziza. The ceremony followed a ruling by...
An angry President Kenyatta vents his frustrations on dissident Jubilee MPs. His deputy stays within the tent for now
For the first time in three years, President Uhuru Kenyatta invited all 404 Jubilee Party legislators – 337 MPs and 67 Senators – to a parliamentary group meeting...
The Islamist militia is making new strides in the north-east. It may even have designs on Ethiopia’s troubled Somali region and Somaliland
While most attention focuses on the preparations for elections later in the year, Al Shabaab is targeting Puntland in a campaign of assassination, and its operations throughout north-eastern...
Vol 61 No 12 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
With three out of five vice-presidents, 10 cabinet members and all but one of the now disbanded High-Level Task Force on Coronavirus having tested positive for Covid-19, there...
The effect of thwarting Deputy President William Ruto’s presidential ambitions could be the return of a de facto single-party state
The disintegration of the ruling Jubilee Party continues apace. In the clearest indications yet that President Uhuru Kenyatta is determined to remove the succession from his deputy, William...
After French police arrested one of the men accused of organising the 1994 genocide, relations between Paris and Rwanda are set to improve
Félicien Kabuga, who is accused of complicity in the Rwandan genocide and had been one of the world's most wanted fugitives, was arrested in the upmarket Parisian suburb...
Pressure is mounting on Premier Hamdok to step up the pace of reform, cutting into the generals’ economic interests
The Sovereignty Council (SC) – the supreme authority running Sudan – has been dragging its feet on reforms that the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) alliance say...
This is to inform you that a meme circulating on social media today purportedly of a story published by Africa Confidential with the headline 'The Plot to Assassinate...
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The government’s inconsistent response is making the country a testbed for what happens when the coronavirus spreads rapidly
Tanzania's response to the coronavirus is marked by chaotic frontline healthcare, confused public health messaging, and a commitment to limiting the public's access to information, including by restricting...
The government expected that curbing the Nairobi governor’s powers would end his career, but the flamboyant Mike Sonko won’t go quietly
The image of suspended Nairobi governor Mike Sonko at State House wordlessly signing powers over to the national government in February appeared to symbolise the presidency's triumph in...
Polls are due at the end of the year but after three years of preparation there is still little prospect of one person, one vote
A fractious and increasingly angry political scene – dominated by growing resentment of the federal government –; is one of several reasons the vision of representative democracy is...
Vol 61 No 10 |
- ERITREA
- ETHIOPIA
Ethiopia no longer automatically gives refugee status to fleeing Eritreans. Neither they nor their Tigrayan hosts are happy about it
The Ethiopian federal government's treatment of refugees from Eritrea is causing concern both in the Tigray regional government, with which it is already at odds, and among refugees....
Vol 61 No 10 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
President Salva Kiir Mayardit sacked the Chief of Defence Forces, General Gabriel Jok Riak, on 11 May over a failure to act quickly enough to thwart a coup...
After a decade of financial scandals, the Kenya Medical Research Institute, whose duties include Covid-19 testing, is back in the spotlight over the dismissal of the doctor in...
Vol 61 No 9 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
There is mounting international concern at the delays in implementing the latest peace agreement, and that President Salva Kiir Mayardit is flouting the spirit of the deal. The...
Fulfilling the terms of China’s loans for the standard gauge railway is at the expense of Mombasa’s role in the national economy
If it wasn't for the drama that preceded it, the resignation of the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) managing director, Daniel Manduku, at the end of March would have...
More donors are planning to cuts funds as concerns grow over diminshing civil and human rights
Tanzania has fallen out with many of the countries making development assistance grants and concessional loans since President John Magufuli came to power, although funds for Covid-19 relief...
County governors have been targets in the Jubilee party's civil war between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy William Ruto. A string of governors allied to Ruto have...
Vol 61 No 7 |
- KENYA
- COVID-19
The coronavirus pandemic will not only leave Kenyans much poorer, but also change the political landscape profoundly, according to the latest thinking. One likely casualty will be the...
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Tanzania stands apart from its neighbours in its response to Covid-19. President John Magufuli has resisted imposing blanket restrictions on movement, curfews and other forms of lockdown, insisting...
Officially, South Sudan remained one of the few African countries at the beginning of April to be free of the coronavirus, although draconian measures are in place to...
Open warfare between factions loyal to the President and his Deputy have taken the governing party to the brink of collapse
The death and funeral of ex-President Daniel arap Moi last month may have united political leaders in an outbreak of praise, but the bitter struggle for control of...
The attempt on the Prime Minister’s life underscores his vulnerability and puts the spotlight on his myriad foes
Whether the bomb attack on Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok's convoy on 9 March was a serious bid to kill him or just a show of strength by backers...
Ethiopia has pulled out of US-hosted talks on the Blue Nile project as bitterness and mistrust grow
Ethiopia is courting regional states and the African Union to bolster its diplomatic position after pulling out of United States-mediated talks on the filling and operations of the...
The opposition is up against a still powerful security state while campaigning for the August elections
Many oppositionists believe the general election scheduled for 29 August has already veered from the fair, democratic process promised by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed when he took office,...
Vol 61 No 6 |
- KENYA
- SOMALIA
Conflict flares between Mogadishu and Nairobi over Jubaland. Kenya wants a buffer zone but Farmajo has other ideas
Months of tensions between Mogadishu and its southern state of Jubaland came to the boil in early March and spilled across the Kenyan border in a violent face-off...
The tortuous negotiations between Addis Ababa and Cairo over the building and filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have lurched into an acrimonious finale. Ethiopia's Foreign Minister...
Although the government has opened talks with the ICC, that doesn’t mean the ousted leader will face trial in the Hague any time soon
Reports that the Khartoum transitional government has approved cooperation with the International Criminal Court in the Hague came on 11 February after a flurry of diplomatic initiatives, mostly...
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Hopes dim and donors lose patience as factions come no closer to a lasting agreement
Despite the prodigious efforts of various diplomats, regional organisations and assorted church groups to push for the formation of a government of national unity, there is increasing concern...
Mining companies, already under pressure from the resource nationalist offensive of President John Magufuli's first presidential term, are complaining that the government's vagueness over its stakes in their...
The MP and leader of Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT Wazalendo), Zitto Kabwe, has been touring Europe and North America to warn that President John Magufuli and...
The poster child for the new Africa, Abiy Ahmed, faces tricky elections and more strident calls for local power-sharing
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his fresh-faced Prosperity Party (PP) are set for a tough struggle in elections despite domestic acclaim and enthusiastic international support, including the 2019...
Elections may be two years away but the race to form new electoral alliances already dominates national politics
Kenya began 2020 with erratic and intractable factional politics as the top two candidates for the next presidential election – William Ruto and Raila Odinga – counter each...
Civil and political rights will remain constrained as Magufuli seeks a landslide in the general election to endorse his statist vision
The prospect of the October general election will dominate 2020. Last year, pre-poll government interference in the local elections saw up to 90% of opposition candidates being disqualified,...