Backed by the presidential camp, Odinga is now the establishment candidate, but he lacks his rival’s grassroots support
The kick-off of Raila Odinga's fifth presidential bid in front of around 100,000 people in Nairobi's Kasarani stadium on 10 December may have displayed 'Baba's' undimmed capacity to...
As they try to dominate the mooted transition, the ruling generals want to avoid prosecution for attacks on civilians
General Abdel Fattah al Burhan, the army chief and leader of a 25 October coup, is keen to keep the immunity from prosecution conferred on him as the...
Undeterred by the escalating civil war and the United States' decision to freeze US$500 million to help with acquisition and development costs, Safaricom is pressing ahead with its...
Farmajo's rival presidential candidates are so fed up with his manipulations of the electoral process they are calling for a boycott and mobilising their militias
Unable to negotiate with President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo' or curb his manipulation of the polls to ensure he can return as president, the alliance of the presidential...
The prime minister's position looks increasingly untenable as reformers distance themselves from the deal with the generals
Having lost the support of the street and the main opposition groupings, Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok faces some stark choices: appoint the ministers of his choice, triggering a...
The prime minister has been restored to power under a deal that looks dangerous for democracy
The ceremony restoring Abdalla Hamdok to the premiership on 21 November had none of the celebratory atmosphere of the occasion in August 2019 when he was first appointed...
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Neither side in Ethiopia's growing conflict is ready to negotiate, as Addis Ababa targets the supposed enemy within
At the beginning of last week, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced he was going to take command of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) on the frontline against...
The extradition of two Moi-era senior officials has inched closer after the Supreme Court granted authority to the Director of Public Prosecutions to pursue the cases.
As he prepares to break with the ruling Jubilee coalition, William Ruto is winning over voters in President Kenyatta's home base
The grand plan to parachute veteran oppositionist Raila Odinga into the presidency in the elections next August has run into powerful headwinds. The heaviest blow to Odinga's ambition...
Regional security services say they have uncovered training networks and a cash pipeline of hundreds of thousands of dollars to fighters affiliated with the group
The double suicide-bomb attack in Kampala on 16 November was the fourth terrorist explosion in Uganda in two months. Security services in the region are focused on what...
Raila Odinga's presidential bid relies on the grandees, while his rival William Ruto focuses on the money
With less than ten months before the presidential elections next year, the two leading contenders are almost certain to be veteran oppositionist Raila Odinga, now 'handshake' partner to...
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Reports that a joint opposition force might march on Addis Ababa have triggered a fresh push for a ceasefire and political talks
The call by Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni for a summit on Ethiopia's deepening crisis reveals growing alarm among regional leaders and the problems their organisations face in resolving...
A multiplicity of mediators is trying to broker a new deal between civilians and army factions
A week after General Abdel Fattah al Burhan's coup and bid to disband the transitional government, military and civilian rivals are locked in negotiations in the face...
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As the Prime Minister calls again for military victory, the war is breaking up the federation and the economy
Increasingly strident statements in Addis Ababa and reports of federal government losses in the Amhara and Oromo regions show how rapidly the national security crisis is escalating.
A spate of attacks in Uganda is raising questions about the government's grip on security. It follows a wave of murders by machete-wielding assailants.
In a political deal, President Farmajo sent the national army to attack one of Al Shabaab's most effective enemies in a key region
President Mohammed Abdullah Mohammed 'Farmajo' and his ally, the President of Federal Member State of Galmudug, Ahmed Abdi Kariye 'Qoor Qoor', face accusations they are boosting Al Shabaab...
Electricity prices are set to rise as the new energy minister restructures the state power company and tries to revive the stalled gas export project
New energy minister, January Makamba, has long been tipped as a future president of the united republic, so his bold plans for the energy sector are winning political...
Worried about losing political and economic power as well as facing prosecution for mass killings, military officers scupper the transition
Army officers led by General Abdel Fattah al Burhan overthrew the transitional government on 25 October and put Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok under house arrest despite hundreds of...
Fresh from addressing UN and US officials on his country's political successes, the President faces a bumpy economy ahead of next year's elections
When he addressed the UN Security Council on 12 October President Uhuru Kenyatta joined other speakers to argue that mismanagement of ethnic diversity often caused political violence within...
Inaugurated in front of regional leaders, the Prime Minster has shuffled his cabinet and launched a massive new offensive in Tigray
Signs decorated with flowers and reading 'A New Beginning' in readiness for Abiy Ahmed's grand inauguration in Addis Ababa on 4 October held little reality even for his...
Reports from the field say the Tigray forces have held off the first wave of the new federal offensive and may be gaining ground
In the run-up to the first year's anniversary of the war in Tigray, no clear victor has emerged and there is a high risk that the conflict, devastating...
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Gulf states are reviewing their alliances while Farmajo seeks salvation in Addis Ababa and Al Shabaab suffers unexpected reverses
President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo' flew to Addis Ababa on 3 October to attend the swearing-in of Abiy Ahmed as prime minister for another five years, hoping that...
Central Province – President Kenyatta's home area – is now the swing region ahead of next year's elections
In ever greater numbers, presidential contenders are trooping to Central Kenya in search of grassroots supporters as well as endorsements from the Mount Kenya oligarchs.
Regional trade has largely recovered from the pandemic, but is still hampered by political battles
East Africa's economy grew the fastest of all Africa's regions before the pandemic. Growth was predicted at 5.1% for 2020 pre-Covid – largely driven by strong spending on...
After police failed to trace the assassins who killed 26 people in Masaka, the government declares it was two opposition MPs
No sooner had Muhammad Ssegirinya and Allan Ssewanyana, MPs belonging to Bobi Wine's National Unity Platform (NUP), been released on bail on murder charges on 29 September than...
Although the government has signed up to multiple climate change commitments, coal-mining is set to grow
A slew of major projects backed by Chinese official finance ran into the sand during the presidency of John Magufuli, and President Samia Suluhu Hassan has been trying...
Farmajo's intelligence chief has been sacked over the cover-up of a secret agent's murder and a programme to send Somalis to fight in Tigray
President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo' now appears to have accepted that his right-hand man, Fahad Yasin, the Salafist former Al Jazeera journalist who became Qatar's unofficial representative in...
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The assassination of the exiled Rwandan businessman Revocant Karemangingo in a hail of bullets in Maputo on 13 September has shocked the country and prompted strong international protests....
The trial of Paul Rusesabagina, 67, the subject of the Hollywood film 'Hotel Rwanda' which depicted him sheltering victims of the 1994 genocide, has prompted criticism from international...
Former radical firebrand Odinga tries to woo Kikuyu voters in their churches as President Kenyatta focuses on attacking his ambitious deputy
The dismissal of the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) by the High Court may yet derail veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga's fifth presidential bid but in the meantime, while...
Reports of worsening famine conditions far eclipse direct casualties of the fighting. Few expect much progress from the mediator
With regional and international organisations focusing on a multitude of other crises, the war between Tigray's forces and Federal forces, backed by Eritrea, is set to drag on...
Khartoum is hesitating over plans for a Russian naval base as it steers a delicate course between Washington and Moscow
As the United States' Afghanistan withdrawal signals a new isolationism, its competitors on the world stage are moving in the opposite direction. Russian plans to build a navy...
Kenya's presence on Twitter – popularly known as KOT – is an army of social media cyber-warriors whose influence has grown so large that Twitter's dominance of political...
Electioneering is in now in full swing for the parliamentary upper house, the first stage in a complex process culminating in the presidential poll in November
After many bumps and hitches the electoral process finally took off in August with selection of members of the upper house of parliament. The intense politicking of politicians...
The new president supports her security establishment’s policies on the Mozambican insurgency as well as harsh repression of the civil opposition
Although it is the neighbouring country most affected by the Islamist insurgency in Mozambique's northern province of Cabo Delgado, Tanzania's response to the conflict is the most misunderstood....
The courts have administered the last rites to the 'handshake' duo's constitutional reform project
Its supporters referred to the Building Bridges Initiative as 'reggae' but the music stopped on 19 August when the Court of Appeal in Nairobi upheld a High Court...
After political victories and battlefield defeats, Prime Minister Abiy wants to boost military budgets and centralise more power
In the face of diplomatic efforts by African and Western officials to broker a ceasefire and humanitarian access, the fight over the future of Tigray and the national...
United States President Joe Biden's initial African policy plans are starting with a programme inherited from President Donald Trump called Prosper Africa. The Biden White House wants to...
Vol 62 No 16 |
- RWANDA
- ECONOMY
Rwanda became the latest African sovereign to benefit from money markets issuing US$620 million of international bonds on 2 August. The sale, only the second by Rwanda, at...
Prime minister Roble gets blamed for the latest hiccup in the elections while President Farmajo exploits clan rivalries in his bid for another term
On Sunday 25 July scheduled elections to the upper parliamentary house were dramatically postponed because of a failure of some committees to form and for others to produce...
As Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed calls for a national war, Tigrayan forces mobilise on three fronts
As fighting was spreading eastwards to Afar Region, on 18 July Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared a total war on the Tigray People's Liberation Front, bringing in soldiers...
With a lack of credible mediators and both sides ruling out political negotiations, the likeliest outcome is an intensifying conflict
All sides have to make some tough decisions on strategy as the eight-month fight for control of Tigray escalates, dragging in surrounding regions. Judging by the declarations of...
After negotiating a new round of credits, Khartoum’s respected prime minister warns that the old guard wants to derail the transition
The latest deal for debt relief and the signing of a US$2.5 billion credit with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are necessary but far from sufficient to keep...
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The conflicts in Chad and Ethiopia are redrawing local and regional politics
Regional alignments have changed radically since the ousting of Omer Hassan Ahmed el Beshir and the National Congress Party regime in April 2019 and its replacement by a...
President Hassan has dropped her predecessor's Covid denialism and ultra-nationalism but there are plenty of policy hangovers
President Samia Suluhu Hassan's approach to diplomacy is a world away from that of her predecessor, President John Pombe Magufuli. While Magufuli was mostly unreachable, President Samia has...
While 1,000 Rwandan police and troops, widely admired for their military qualities, have arrived on the Afungi peninsula to defend the liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure against Cabo...
Debt and spending have mushroomed, but vested interests will fight attempts to rein in the elite’s cash cows
The Treasury's recent successful flotation of a billion dollars in Eurobonds signals that Kenya is not about to wean itself off a dangerous addiction to expensive commercial credit....
With his rivals mired in litigation and squabbling over who will be their candidate, the Deputy President is again the man to beat
With his rivals bogged down in court trying to salvage the Building Bridges Initiative, Deputy President William Ruto has re-emerged as the man to beat in next August's...
An uneasy calm reigns in the capital as the prime minister's shaky consensus on the elections moves forward
After months of delay and violent confrontations Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble has found a path through the obstacles which have been preventing elections since last September. The...
Communal clashes in five regions and all-out conflict in Tigray will undermine the legitimacy of the new government
It was meant to be a landmark election, a critical stage in Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's proclaimed agenda for democratic transition after decades of authoritarian rule. Ahead of...
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In the febrile post-election climate, President Yoweri Museveni's attempts to co-opt his political rivals and dissidents are proving tortuous for the ruling National Resistance Movement.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed and one of his top advisors are rethinking the United Arab Emirates' policy in the Horn
As Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government complains about United States 'interference' in the Tigray conflict, there are signs that Washington's stance has caused some governments, especially the...
The attempted killing of one of Museveni’s most valued officers and ministers focuses attention on his cabinet appointments
The 1 June attempt to assassinate Katumba Wamala in his car, which wounded him and claimed the lives of his daughter and his driver, is being seen in...
Exporting Uganda’s oil to Tanzania and beyond looks less viable as high costs and the turn from fossil fuels become reality
'Deal Done', trumpeted the loyalist press in Dar es Salaam after President Samia Suluhu Hassan and President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda signed agreements with the East African Crude...
Denmark last week passed an unprecedented law permitting the government to send asylum-seekers to a third country to have their claims processed. If successful, they would only gain...
The government flounders as condemnation of rights abuses grows along with the popularity of oppositionist Bobi Wine
President Yoweri Museveni may be closing on a fourth decade in power but all is far from well in his restive ruling party as members wait for him...
The High Court’s rejection of the BBI process risks ripping apart a carefully constructed compromise
Having sailed through parliament, the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) bill hit a major and unexpected roadblock on 14 May, when the High Court ruled the constitutional reform plan...
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is running out of room to manoeuvre as Addis Ababa's relations with the United States and Europe fall to their lowest ebb for three...
Denmark is in talks that could see Rwanda process asylum-seekers currently in the EU country or arriving there in return for development aid. Once the property of the...
Prime Minister Hamdok is headed to Paris to negotiate a mammoth debt relief deal as economic hardship threatens stability
Struggling with one of the highest inflation rates in the world and a mountainous debt burden, Sudan saw a ray of light this week when the International Monetary...
Vol 62 No 10 |
- KENYA
- TANZANIA
President Samia Suluhu Hassan's goodwill visit to Nairobi early this month succeeded in substituting warmth and bonhomie for the mistrust and suspicion that characterised the late John Magufuli's...
Belated foreign pressure persuaded President Mohamed 'Farmajo' to step back from the brink, now mediation and talks might help end the turmoil
Threats to cut foreign funding and local opposition pressure have finally forced President Mohamed Abdallah Mohamed 'Farmajo' to ditch a planned two-year extension to his tenure. President Farmajo...
Asmara sends more military units across the border to Tigray and beyond, despite its pledge to withdraw
Ethiopian officials are preparing for national elections in early June against a backdrop of political and economic reversals for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Despite growing violence in Tigray...
Kenyans worry that the government is leading donors on a familiar dance as it continues to increase borrowing
In the dog days of President Daniel arap Moi's reign, Kenya acquired a reputation for borrowing from the International Monetary Fund and other financial institutions after promising economic...
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been among the most vocal critics of Ethiopian premier Abiy Ahmed's handling of the ongoing civil war in Tigray. In...
Vol 62 No 9 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
A hefty loan with few conditions raises questions as the government is lambasted for rights abuses and its opaque finances
Civil servants in Juba joke that even if they see their monthly pay-check, it's all gone by the time they have paid for a haircut. Now the International...
Ethiopia and Eritrea may consider a federation as the conflict in Tigray becomes part of a wider reordering of regional geopolitics
Efforts to float a trial balloon for greater closeness between Eritrea and Ethiopia by Ambassador Dina Mufti at his weekly press conference in Addis Ababa at the end...
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Issayas’s forces were the spearhead of Addis Ababa’s ousting of the Tigray government. They are there for the long haul
As the fog around the conflict in Tigray slowly begins to lift, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's reliance on the armed forces of his Eritrean counterpart Issayas Afewerki is...
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None of the presidential contenders can explain how they could form a majority at next year’s elections
Kenya's next president will be Raila Odinga, William Ruto or 'S'. The latter stands for 'the system'. This informs a growing assumption that with neither Odinga nor Ruto...
Regional disputes will limit Nairobi's chances of using leadership roles for influence beyond national borders
In 2021 Kenya holds one of two African seats at the United Nations Security Council, the chair of the African Union Peace and Security Council, and for the...
The new president needs to make changes at the top of government to consolidate her position as factions vie for favour
Only two days elapsed between the announcement of late President John Magufuli's death and the swearing in of President Samia Suluhu Hassan, quelling fears that Magufuli loyalists would...
Prime Minister Abiy has finally admitted to an open secret about Eritrean troops, but the guerrilla war in Tigray rumbles on
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has finally, if grudgingly, admitted to Ethiopia's House of People's Representatives on what everybody has known for months: Eritrean troops are operating across Tigray....
The ruling party's old guard is set to back Samia Suluhu Hassan against a security cabal which was in charge for the last week
After announcing the death from a 'heart condition' of President John Magufuli on the evening of 17 March, Vice-President Samia Suluhu Hassan returns to the urgent matter of...
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The perennial presidential candidate wants his 'handshake' to propel him into State House. But others have their eyes on the prize
The third anniversary of the 'handshake' of reconciliation between President Uhuru Kenyatta and veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga passed with muted celebrations. Orange Democratic Movement leader Odinga spent...
Vol 62 No 6 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
South Sudan's oil sector, which accounts for 85% of government revenue, has resisted an audit amid a litany of scandals and repeated promises of opening the books. But...
President Museveni is maintaining heavy security on the street as concern mounts over treatment of detainees
Tension is running high in Kampala and Jinja over a month after President Yoweri Museveni lifted restrictions on social media and the internet imposed ahead of the 14...
A burgeoning Ethiopia-Eritrea-Somalia axis is resetting relations all over the Horn and undermining regional institutions
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is fending off all pleas for mediation and accountability for human rights abuses committed during his campaign to defeat the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front...
President Farmajo refuses to leave office at the end of his term and the opposition has taken to the streets
If President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo' does not meet the opposition protesting his authoritarianism half-way, there are fears that splits in the security forces could lead to a...
The murder of another Rwandan dissident in South Africa will test relations between the two countries
When the Rwanda National Congress (RNC) chairman in South Africa, Seif Bamporiki, was gunned down in the Europa informal settlement of Gugulethu township, Cape Town on 21 February,...
The takeover of Jubilee by President Uhuru Kenyatta's allies appears to be complete after they ousted Caleb Kositany, the Deputy Secretary General, and key lieutenant of estranged Deputy...
Kenya's trade agreement with the United Kingdom finalised in November was sold as a diplomatic triumph in Nairobi but met with consternation in East Africa's other capitals. The...
Kenya's determined support for Britain's candidate to head the Court raises questions about its political direction
The election of British lawyer Karim Ahmad Khan on 12 February as the new prosecutor of the International Criminal Court comes as it is still struggling to establish...
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The economy has been badly hit by the Covid-19 pandemic but the President is still offering more giveaways
After two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the Kenya economy is officially in recession. It shrank by 5.3% in the second quarter of 2020 largely due to...
President Ramkalawan faces a battle to deliver on promises as the pandemic-induced collapse in tourism drains state coffers
Seychelles' newest president may be regretting having finally got his wish: the top job in a country that relies almost exclusively on tourism – during a global pandemic....
Britain's Minister for Africa, James Duddridge MP, has come in for criticism from the Labour opposition in Parliament for not expressing more concern about the conduct of the...
The BBI alliance is manoeuvring its ally into the Nairobi governorship because it fears losing another by-election
The political differences between Deputy President William Ruto and President Uhuru Kenyatta are playing themselves out in the tussle to fill the position of the governor of Nairobi.
Vol 62 No 2 |
- ETHIOPIA
- SUDAN
Addis made a deal with Khartoum when it went to war in Tigray. Amhara nationalists could upset this delicate arrangement
Tension along the Ethiopia-Sudan border has risen sharply as Khartoum asserts itself and its territorial rights, threatening to force a once-minor border issue into a major confrontation. On...
Brutal suppression of the opposition and voter intimidation won President Yoweri Museveni another term of office
Although President Yoweri Museveni won the presidential election with 59% of the vote on a 57% turnout according to the electoral commission, over a dozen of the ruling...
When elections are over, oil and gas are likely to move centre-stage, and the changing geopolitical context will have deep effects
No Somali election passes without conflict. The hardening stances of the government and its opponents caused first delays in selecting new members of parliament, and then argument about...
The President’s coalition with his former adversary will be put to the electorate in 2021 against a backdrop of economic pain
After a catastrophic decline in economic performance due to Covid-19 in 2020, aggravated by corruption and wrong-headed fiscal and public debt policies, 2021 promises to be particularly painful...
The Prime Minister needs to hold successful elections and resolve a long-running dam dispute as he seeks to rebuild his reputation
Holding successful elections, finalising the continuing disagreements over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and providing a new political settlement acceptable to both ethnic nationalists and pan-Ethiopian centralists...
Facing a coalition of rebel militias opposed to his government and the elections, President Touadéra has called for help from Moscow and Kigali, sidelining the UN
Presidential and parliamentary elections due on 27 December are in the balance as a coalition of militias tries to oust President Faustin Archange Touadéra, replacing him with ex-President...