The outspoken chief budget auditor has been arrested in politically convenient circumstances
The arrest of Margaret Nyakang'o, the widely respected head of Kenya's budget watchdog, on what appear to be trumped up fraud charges, has prompted concerns about the scale...
Warring generals Burhan and Hemeti are going into a battle that could end in a Libya-style national schism
After the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) took over the cities of Nyala, Zalingei, El Geneina, and El Daein over a month ago, they set the stage for a...
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Vol 64 No 25 |
- TANZANIA
- UGANDA
The fate of Albertine oil and the pipeline to export it rests on Beijing's willingness to finance the plan which flouts World Bank climate rules
The massive oil project, which includes the East African Crude Oil Pipeline – heated over its 1,443-kilometre journey to the Tanzanian coast at Tanga – continues to stir...
Vol 64 No 24 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
The long-serving South Sudanese ambassador to the United Nations, Akuei Bona Malwal, is being recalled to Juba after a series of misunderstandings which enraged President Salva Kiir, we...
A 'once-in-a-century' deluge halted troops movements while the President went on a world tour to raise funds
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has November's unprecedentedly severe rains and floods to thank for the fact he has not paid the full political price for the setback government...
As the UN accuses the generals of 'verging on pure evil', the international system runs out of ideas and energy
As fighters from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) edge near to total control of the five states of Darfur, the human cost in terms of ethnic killings and...
The premier is targeting direct access to the Red Sea, a move that could destabilise the region
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose popularity has plummeted at home and abroad due to the war in Tigray, the chaos in Oromia, and now conflict in Amhara, appears...
Abiy's clumsy proposal to swap shares in the Nile dam for access to a port took the region by surprise
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed shocked allies and enemies alike when he announced on 13 October that access to the Red Sea was an 'existential' issue for his...
Kenyans are bracing themselves for at least two years of fiscal austerity as William Ruto's government prioritises its Eurobond repayments. And the pain just keeps coming.
As the devastating stalemate between Burhan's and Hemeti's forces continues, the pressure for a ceasefire is mounting
The resumption of peace talks in Jeddah between Sudan's warring factions on 26 October just as the Israel-Hamas war was escalating was more than a show of diplomatic...
Britain and France back Kigali for now but some of its neighbours are losing patience
The fight for control of eastern Congo-Kinshasa is intensifying in the weeks leading up to the country's elections due on 20 December. At the centre of it is...
The government aims to raise quick cash from privatising state assets but opposition is mounting
The radical plans to purge the political elite and its economic projects after William Ruto's presidential election victory last year are running out of steam. In some places...
General Abdel Fattah al Burhan is struggling to build diplomatic support and cast himself as a statesman
General Abdel Fattah al Burhan, mocked by his adversaries as the 'basement commander' – a reference to his decision to stay in the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) General...
The African Union is delaying its troop withdrawal and government tactics are questioned after its anti-Al Shabaab offensive suffered a heavy reverse
Nine months ago, when President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced a pause in its hitherto successful anti-Al Shabaab offensive, prospects were good. Unusual clan alliances and pressures from the...
Musalia Mudavadi is the main winner as technocrats gain ground and some political jobbers are moved sideways
Loyalty over talent was a common criticism when President William Ruto unveiled his ministerial team last September. Co-opting former rivals and rewarding those who backed his presidential campaign...
The conflict becomes more vicious and anarchic by the day as rival leaders lose control of their subordinates and new militias proliferate
The civil war in Sudan is slipping out of the grip of its main protagonists as proposed political solutions evaporate and each military confrontation is increasingly determined by...
President Samia's government is piling into 'green bonds' and stepping up fossil fuel projects at the same time
As questions multiply about 'greenwashing' and financial compliance Tanzania is gearing up to enter the booming carbon credit market, signing memoranda of understanding with investors and launching a...
A new cross-party committee will strengthen ambitious politicians and steer clear of the cost-of-living crisis
The prospect of a political deal between President William Ruto and opposition Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga is unsettling some of their followers and allies who fear...
After failing to conquer Dhulbahante rebels in Las Anod, which led to conflict within the Isaq clan, the President needs to repair the splits
President Muse Bihi Abdi is adding political problems to the military reverses he has suffered in his ill-judged confrontation with the Dhulbahante clan over Las Anod. That’s the...
The president's latest army reshuffle is part of a long-term plan to safeguard his regime and his family's role in it
The army reshuffle in Rwanda, announced on 31 August, was not a panicked response to the military coup in Gabon on the previous day as some have suggested....
Having used violence to cow the opposition the President is working hard to bribe and co-opt oppositionists into irrelevance
Hard questions are being asked about the future of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), the second biggest opposition party after Bobi Wine's National Unity Platform (NUP), after...
William Ruto advances his own, and Kenya's interests, but fails to pull in much climate finance from industrial economies
Having spent much of the first year of his presidency staking out the ground as one of Africa's leading voices on climate change and energy policy, Kenya's William...
Pushing ahead with a pro-market reform programme as it tries to restructure its foreign debts and secure a loan from the IMF, Abiy Ahmed's government is fighting on...
The rebellion in Amhara region and the government's heavy response is testing the federal system to the limit
Initially, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won plaudits for recasting the system inherited from his predecessor Meles Zenawi who dominated Ethiopian politics from 1991 until his death in 2012....
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Vol 64 No 16 |
- KENYA
- HAITI
Kenya's offer to send 1,000 police to help train and assist the Haitian National Police in the Caribbean state's battle against criminal gangs has been warmly welcomed by...
Multiple insurgencies and the bitter aftermath of the Tigray war weigh heavily on growth and jobs
The harsh realities of most people's living conditions in the country contradict Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's resolute optimism that within two years the economy will be 'free from...
Mogadishu's first big corruption trial in years is in full flow, but suspicions of scores being settled while business goes on as usual are casting a shadow
Four civil servants face heavy penalties if they are convicted of stealing public funds in the first corruption trial in living memory. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's government is...
Bolstered by another billion from the IMF, President Ruto reckons he can face down a militant but uncoordinated opposition
Austerity economics and street protests are dominating William Ruto's first term in the presidency after he rejected restructuring Kenya's debts in favour of two years of fiscal belt-tightening....
After his putsch failed, the paramilitary leader has relaunched an ethnic war in Darfur as supply lines tighten
When the war of the generals broke out on 15 April, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti', the commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), had clear objectives: to...
The floundering attempts at a ceasefire around Khartoum are ignoring the growing threat of regional conflagration in the west
As international attention flickered on the failing talks in Jeddah mediated by officials from Saudi Arabia and the United States, the war between Sudan's military factions has been...
With economic woes at home, President Ruto is pitching himself as a foreign policy player – from climate finance to reform of the African Union
Few expected William Ruto to devote much time to foreign policy when he claimed the presidency after narrowly defeating Raila Odinga in last August's elections. After running an...
Unphased by a string of lawsuits brought by environmental groups in courts in France and elsewhere, the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) has confirmed that drilling at the...
Prime Minister Abiy's plan for a government complex overlooking Addis Ababa could cost over $10 billion even as the economy limps along
When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power five years ago, he said his mother had prophesied that he would be the seventh king of Ethiopia. Many were...
Hassan Sheikh has pledged one-person one-vote elections despite insufficient infrastructure and security, and he is placing great store on joining the EAC
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has announced several bold political changes and promised to succeed in his bid to join the East African Community. He has promised one-person, one-vote...
The region's foes in Eritrea, Addis Ababa and Asmara are trying to exploit post-war political differences as the old ruling party reorganises
Eight months after signing a peace accord with the federal government, Tigray's leaders face a new set of economic and political tests, not least whether their political organisations...
The militia has struck back hard against Mogadishu's forces as the government fails to consolidate after last year's battlefield successes
When Al Shabaab attacked an African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) base on 26 May and killed up to 100 Ugandan soldiers and taking prisoners it struck...
Vol 64 No 12 |
- SOUTH SUDAN
The civil war in Sudan is distracting attention from the desperate plight of its southern neighbour with its own stalled peace process
'Many of us who are accustomed to the prevarication of the parties in the South Sudanese peace process think they are using the outbreak of civil war in...
With back-up, the latest truce could open the door for a general return to Khartoum and the restart of civilian negotiations on the transition
The agreement of a short-term ceasefire and humanitarian arrangements in Jeddah on 21 May with monitoring capacity, after six failed such accords, may be a step forward despite...
Cronyism is nothing new in Kenyan politics and the latest move to raise eyebrows was President William Ruto's decision this week to nominate Mary Chebukati Wanyonyi, wife of...
The government must balance negotiations with the Oromo rebels with its strategy in the Tigray and Amhara regions
The federal government and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) pushed maximalist positions on disarmament and devolution respectively in the first round of their peace talks in Zanzibar which...
As the generals are deadlocked in battle, a humanitarian disaster is building with refugees fleeing for neighbouring countries
Prospects for a humanitarian ceasefire in Sudan have improved since the opening of talks between representatives of the warring factions open in Jeddah on 6 May, according to...
The discovery last month of mass graves bearing the bodies of more than 130 people near the popular tourist town of Malindi has shocked Kenyans. Self-proclaimed pastor Paul...
The opposition leader has got the talks he demanded but that may not keep his supporters off the streets
After weeks of insisting that there would be no compromise and no 'handshake'-style deal with veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga, President William Ruto followed his two immediate predecessors...
The outbreak of all-out war in Khartoum has produced an indelible conclusion – that the armed forces are incapable of governing the country
In full view of diplomats and international organisations in Khartoum, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had been preparing for battle for several...
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Most governments are treading carefully, trying to prevent the conflict from spilling over the borders
The feared internationalisation of the fight between the forces of Generals Abdel Fattah al Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti' is contingent on how long it lasts and...
Public sector wages arrears have exposed the scale of the government's debt burden and revenue problems
The failure to pay the March wages of civil servants, teachers and politicians has blown a hole in the economic management record of President William Ruto's government after...
Following the successful November peace process in South Africa between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the Zanzibar talks due to start...
Efforts to end the conflict are struggling amid the humanitarian crisis and communications breakdown in Khartoum
An abundance of mediators – including the African Union (AU), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the UN, the Gulf States, the United States, the European Union and...
Having fought as allies during the war with Tigray, federal forces are now clashing with Amhara nationalists
Growing local suspicions of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's ties with Tigray and Oromo nationalists have coalesced into a mutiny against the federal government's efforts to rein in the...
Many Copts see the government's hand in the split of Oromo priests from the mainstream Church. But the Church’s Amhara leaders are fighting back
A religious division that threatened to deepen the ethno-nationalist conflicts already threatening the federation began in January and has been waxing and waning, with more arrests and protests...
As insecurity and economic conditions worsen, the rivalry between the junta leaders is blocking a return to civil rule
A call for a fatwa and a threat by a supporter of ousted President Omer Hassan Ahmed el Beshir to kill the UN envoy Volker Perthes further complicates...
Kenya expects to complete a trade deal with the United States by the end of this year, the first bilateral pact inked by President Joe Biden's administration, say...
The crisis in Las Anod has entered its fourth month with a bigger cast of actors than before but with prospects for resolution still uncertain. International pressure on...
The President's son's demands to succeed his father are testing the unity of the ruling party – and the first family
General Muhoozi Kainerugaba has upped the stakes yet again in his 'tweet and delete' campaign to succeed his father as president, causing ructions in ruling circles.
The Mombasa-Nairobi trains are full, but repaying the debts on the loss-making railway is stretching the state treasury
Many see the new Standard Gauge Railway from the capital to the coast as a disaster for public finances but that has not stopped Kenyans from enthusiastically using...
A parliamentary committee has demanded a minister resign and other officials be sacked after an internal dispute spilled into the open
A parliamentary select committee has demanded the resignation of Betty Amongi, Minister of Gender, Labour, and Social Development, over her attempted interference in the management of the National...
Paul Rusesabagina's 25-year sentence has been commuted and legal action against President Kagame's government has been dropped
Qatar won a chorus of grateful thanks from the governments of Rwanda and the United States for its role in bringing about the release of political activist Paul...
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Despite marked successes in its war against Al Shabaab, the government's campaign has been weakened by the regional authorities' competing priorities
While the combined offensives against Al Shabaab in Hirshabelle and Galmudug have been drawing attention, the Federal Member States (FMS) and the Somali Federal Government (SFG) gathered for...
Borrowing from Daniel arap Moi's playbook, President Ruto's allies plan to turn his coalition into a single, dominant party
After painstakingly building an alliance of mainly small parties to carry him to power last year, President William Ruto is determined to subsume them all into his victorious...
Instead of reviewing the grand economic schemes she has inherited, the President is embracing them, despite warnings about the viability of some
A key part of the political identity of late President John Magufuli was to promote massive infrastructural projects to boost industrialisation and bring prosperity. President Samia Suluhu Hassan...
Addis has persuaded Hargeisa to ease its artillery barrages on the town, but Somaliland's president remains determined to crush his opponents
Oblivious to the concerns of western countries and interested neighbours, President Muse Bihi Abdi of Somaliland has now listened to envoys of Ethiopia and called off the all-out...
Uganda's parliament is set to pass a new law that criminalises identifying as gay, lesbian or transgender, same sex marriage, and the promotion of homosexuality.
Ever since the rendition, trial and conviction of Paul Rusesabagina, hero of the Hollywood film 'Hotel Rwanda', there has been diplomatic speculation that President Paul Kagame might use...
After a shaky start President Samia has imposed herself on ruling party and state alike and eased up on repression, but popularity eludes her so far
President Samia Suluhu Hassan astonished supporters and sceptics alike when she attended International Women's Day celebration on 8 March as a guest of Bawacha, the women's wing of...
Closer ties between Addis Ababa and Khartoum sideline Cairo's position on the Nile dam
Egypt, a key player in the Nile Basin, is watching with alarm as the recent rapprochement between Sudan and Ethiopia undercuts its leverage over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance...
Despite appeals for calm and for negotiations with the elders of Las Anod, Hargeisa's forces continue to shell the town with heavy and light artillery, and fire from...
The Chad-Sudan frontier and the restive militias which straddle it are looming larger as tensions rise
On 29 January, Sudan's military leader, General Abdel Fattah al Burhan, went to Ndjamena to discuss growing insecurity on the Chad-Sudan border. No surprises there, perhaps, but the...
After the peace accord with Tigray, rivalries between the biggest regional blocs in the ruling party trigger more turmoil
So far, the peace agreement between the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in Pretoria on 2 November has stopped the fighting in a war...
Somaliland's military assault on Las Anod looks like an over-reaction by the state government and could scupper its independence ambitions
After Hargeisa's security forces reacted to peaceful protests in Las Anod in December and January by shooting marchers dead, some thought the situation would calm – but the...
Uganda Airlines wants to buy six new mid-range airliners costing nearly US$500 million despite losing $146m since its re-launch in August 2019. The aviation trade press reported that...
Ethiopia's aviation authorities have come under fire for removing critical comments from the final report into the 10 March 2019 crash of the Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 Max...
As a tribunal hears claims of fraud in the electoral commission, President Ruto and Raila Odinga accuse each other’s supporters of treason
As President William Ruto's government tries to fast-track the selection of new commissioners to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), it has been exchanging allegations with its...
The security force shootings in Las Anod have highlighted the grievances of Somaliland residents who don't want independence for the statelet
The security force shootings in Las Anod at the turn of the year are having major repercussions in the region, including on the disputed Sool region and on...
International criticism is mounting against President Paul Kagame's government after 90 mainly Africa-based rights and media groups called for an independent and impartial probe into the 'suspicious' death...
Vol 64 No 3 |
- ERITREA
- RUSSIA
Regional and international officials say the Asmara regime has been greatly strengthened by Ethiopia's civil war
Thanking Moscow's 'Eritrean friends for their consistent support of Russian initiatives in the UN,' Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sketched out closer ties between the two countries after meeting...
Africa Confidential has obtained a devastating secret report on huge losses and mismanagement afflicting the flag-carrier, Uganda Airlines
Uganda Airlines has lost US$137 million since it launched in August 2019, according to a parliamentary public accounts committee report which was suppressed by the Speaker of Parliament,...
Opposition MPs say Parliament's Speaker blocked a debate on corruption in the national airline, and is President Museveni's stooge
When Parliamentary Speaker, Anita Among, suppressed discussion on 17 January of a report into corruption and mismanagement at Uganda Airlines she triggered a political furore. Opposition MPs say...
Political parties are negotiating a new path to elections while the generals protect their interests and militant oppositionists take to the streets
The bold hopes surrounding fresh talks between Sudanese political parties on 9 January to agree a final deal for a transition to civil rule 'within a few weeks'...
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The new President has quickly established political dominance at home as the direction of his government takes shape
Having secured, however fleetingly, full-spectrum dominance over the domestic political scene, and with the debt crisis in remission after the International Monetary Fund injected an additional $550 million...
The succession dominates political discourse but if Museveni stands again the economy is less able to accommodate his electoral pump-priming
Economic woes and conflicts in Uganda's restive regions are set to escalate during the year as tensions accumulate over whether President Yoweri Museveni will stand for re-election to...
The anti-Al Shabaab offensive has the wind in its sails, but maintaining its momentum presents the President with deep problems
The humanitarian situation will remain dire in 2023. Any rains that do come cannot restore an already devastated ecosystem and emergency aid to the starving will still be...
Peace negotiations in Tigray will need careful nurturing to survive while crises among other nationalities reach boiling point
Hopes are high that last year's peace agreement between Tigrayan leaders and the federal government in Addis Ababa can be sustained, but there is a long way to...