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Published 3rd April 2026

Vol 67 No 7

Nigeria

Tinubu’s oil reforms hit a wall of old debts and new sabotage

NNPC management's visit to the Dangote Refinery in Ibeju-Lekki, February 2026. Pic: nnpclimited
NNPC management's visit to the Dangote Refinery in Ibeju-Lekki, February 2026. Pic: nnpclimited

The President is moving faster to unlock stalled investments but forward crude sales and pipeline attacks are cutting into the oil price windfall

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu came to office in May 2023 promising to reverse two decades of decline in Nigeria’s petroleum sector, and on paper the progress is real: a long-running dispute over OPL 245 has been settled, US$20 billion in field development plans approved, and 50 oil blocks put up for licence. Yet as global crude prices surge on the back of the United States-Israeli war with Iran, Nigeria’s oil production is at a 20-month low, with the Dangote refinery receiving about half the crude supply the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) had agreed to deliver.

Mnangagwa’s war on the constitution

Emmerson Mnangagwa presides over the 391st Ordinary Session of the ZANU-PF Politburo, Harare, March 2026. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Emmerson Mnangagwa presides over the 391st Ordinary Session of the ZANU-PF Politburo, Harare, March 2026. Pic: @edmnangagwa

Arrests, abductions and armed militias mark ZANU-PF’s campaign for a constitutional amendment that would end direct presidential elections

When the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front ZANU-PF gazetted Constitution Amendment Bill No.3 on 16 February, it launched what opponents are calling a slow-motion constitutional coup. Senior...

ZiG, fuel and broken promises

Big5ZiG Awareness Campaign – Reserve Bank Chief of Staff Moris Mpofu explains BiG 5 ZiG features, Bulawayo Province, March 2026. Pic: rbz.co.zw
Big5ZiG Awareness Campaign – Reserve Bank Chief of Staff Moris Mpofu explains BiG 5 ZiG features, Bulawayo Province, March 2026. Pic: rbz.co.zw

A forced shift to the local currency for government contracts and a 39% overnight fuel price rise are squeezing businesses and workers owed billions by the state. On...

BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

Ethiopia has become the latest African country to roll out the red carpet for investors – and it appears to be paying off. In March, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government announced a 10-year ‘golden visa’ for investors prepared to inject at least US$10,000 into the economy. The annual ‘Invest in Ethiopia’ business summit, which concluded on 27 March, secured more than $13 billion in promised investment. Abiy will present that as evidence that the zeal for eco...

Ethiopia has become the latest African country to roll out the red carpet for investors – and it appears to be paying off. In March, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government announced a 10-year ‘golden visa’ for investors prepared to inject at least US$10,000 into the economy. The annual ‘Invest in Ethiopia’ business summit, which concluded on 27 March, secured more than $13 billion in promised investment. Abiy will present that as evidence that the zeal for economic liberalisation which defined the early years of his premiership in 2018 has not been extinguished by years of conflict in Tigray.

But the lion’s share of the money is coming from Chinese firms, led by the Ming Yang Smart Energy Group, which plans to invest more than $10bn in hydrogen and green ammonia projects. That will strengthen Beijing’s economic and diplomatic influence in Ethiopia, where it already accounts for more than half of annual foreign direct investment. The sums pledged also dwarf the commitments made by the EU and European firms to Ethiopia’s renewable energy infrastructure last year. They will also challenge the Gulf States, rivals for influence in Ethiopia now locked in their own conflict.

Mauritius and South Africa were among the first to offer generous visas for individual investors, and Ethiopia is following suit, joined by Botswana and Kenya. Kenya secured $2.9bn at its own foreign investor gathering last week.

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Boom at the top, struggle at the bottom

The oil revenues are rising, but with over 40% of the budget swallowed by debt servicing, the gains are not reaching those who need them most

When the Iran war pushed Brent crude well past the $100 mark, Angola’s government responded with caution. For a country that budgeted 2026 revenues assuming oil prices at...

After the Sahel rout, Europe courts the coast

Expelled from the Sahel and estranged from Washington, the EU has signed its first African security pact with Ghana and wants Nigeria as an Atlantic anchor

Amid its fraying ties with the United States, the European Union is shoring up defences on its eastern flank and negotiating security deals in North and West Africa...

Cocobod’s last crop as the cocoa state hits the buffers

With output halved and farmers threatening revolt, the Mahama government chooses between radical reform for the cocoa board or its dissolution

When President John Dramani Mahama convened an emergency Cabinet meeting in February to address what officials privately described as a ‘structural heart attack’ in Ghana's cocoa sector, few...

Lourenço cashes in on the oil bonanza

The war in the Middle East has prompted Luanda to return to the Eurobond market

Less than six months after oil exporter Angola issued US$1.75 billion in Eurobonds to support its 2025 spending plans, Luanda has returned to the markets after the Iran...

How Juba is engineering mass hunger

Forced displacement is pushing Jonglei towards famine conditions as the government expels the very agencies trying to avert catastrophe

In late January, government forces ordered civilians, UN personnel and humanitarian workers to move from several counties in Jonglei, including from the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS)...

Winnie Odinga tries to build bridges as the ODM fractures

The daughter of opposition leader Raila Odinga is continuing the family dynasty and its shaky alliance with President Ruto

The Odinga family strengthened its grip on the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) following a Special National Delegates Convention (SDC) on 26 March but its political base will be...

Siege mentality pushes politics to brink

Juba looks determined to escalate the fighting by marginalising Riek Machar’s camp and unilaterally rewriting the 2018 peace accord

Impervious to African and international criticism, the government in Juba is pressing ahead with a militarist strategy that has led regional experts to argue that the country has...

Wadagni chases a mandate

With real competition stripped from the race, the finance minister’s biggest obstacle is persuading citizens to turn out at all

As Romuald Wadagni approaches presidential election day on 12 April, abstentions pose the greatest threat to his hopes of securing a decisive mandate. With the main opposition...

Mahama gets caught in the cocoa trap

A mid-season farmgate price cut of nearly 30% has sent farmers into the streets, exposed Cocobod's $3 billion debt mountain and is damaging the President politically

When President John Dramani Mahama's National Democratic Congress swept back to power in December 2024 on a wave of popular goodwill, its pledge to nearly double the cocoa...

Pointers

Win-win or spin-spin

The soft launch for Neofingo, a ‘Ghana-Britain digital trade finance corridor’, by a public and non-profit consortium on 28 March championed a new way to cut through the...

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