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Published 9th October 2026

Vol 67 No 20

Ethiopia

Abiy turns the screw on the ethno-nationalists

Abiy Ahmed. Pic: PMAbiyAhmedAli
Abiy Ahmed. Pic: PMAbiyAhmedAli

The TPLF’s retreat from Mekelle gives the premier room to squeeze his regional opponents, but their shaky alliance still threatens federal supply lines

For the second time this decade, the leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) appear to have made a strategic error that has forced them to flee the Tigray region’s capital, Mekelle. This time, the outcome could be more than another period of federal control – rather a decisive blow to Ethiopia’s ethno-nationalist project.

TPLF loses Mekelle, mountain war begins

ETHIOPIA'S FEDERAL FIGHT BACK: The ENDF and Tigray dissidents seize Mekelle. © africa-confidential.com 2026
ETHIOPIA'S FEDERAL FIGHT BACK: The ENDF and Tigray dissidents seize Mekelle. © africa-confidential.com 2026

Federal forces have seized Tigray’s capital and southern corridor, but TPLF and Eritrean soldiers may turn this advance into a costly highland campaign

The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) has pushed deep into Tigray, capturing the regional capital, Mekelle, on 4 October after a rapid turnaround on several fronts. The advance...

Commission exposes battle over the law

Mbuyiseli Madlanga. Pic: madlangacommission.co.za
Mbuyiseli Madlanga. Pic: madlangacommission.co.za

Withdrawn prosecutions and disciplinary cases are reshaping policing and anti-corruption, testing Ramaphosa’s commitment to restore credibility

Retired Constitutional Court judge Mbuyiseli Madlanga’s inquiry inquiry into criminal influence over the police service is developing into a broader test of confidence in all the institutions responsible...

Mutharika flounders after his dramatic comeback

Struggling with corruption, a weak economy, and poor health, the president is surrounded by would be successors

Public resentment against economic stagnation and corruption powered Peter Mutharika to an unlikely second term aged 85 last September. But his administration has made little progress on either...

Wicknell Chivayo’s presidential network loses its broker

Far flung tributes underline the reach of a businessman whose access to African leaders was clearer than the commercial arrangements underpinning it

The death of flamboyant businessman Wicknell Chivayo in a helicopter crash on 30 September has jolted the pan-African networks that he built around money, access and political favour....

Brussels pesticide overhaul puts African farm exports at risk

Coffee, citrus and flower exporters are under pressure to change production methods but researchers warn of higher costs and disrupted trade

Brussels’s promise of closer economic ties with Africa is colliding with its drive to protect European farmers. Proposed changes to pesticide-residue limits could force African farmers to change...

Salva Kiir changes voting rules, aiming to keep the power

His electoral amendments remove constitutional and census hurdles but leave the credibility of the vote in dispute

Centralising all power under his office ahead of elections scheduled for 22 December, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir Mayardit has dissolved the transitional government and legislatures while retaining...

Abiy’s military advantage meets a broader insurgent challenge

Federal forces retain superior air power, but the disparate coalition opposing them is stretching them across several fronts

The clashes which broke out on 23 September in Tigray are the fiercest since the TPLF signed the Pretoria accord with the Federal forces in November 2022. They...

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