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Published 29th May 2026

Vol 67 No 11


South Africa

The ANC is running out of successors it can trust

SOUTH AFRICA'S METRO MUNICIPALITIES: How the parties stand. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
SOUTH AFRICA'S METRO MUNICIPALITIES: How the parties stand. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The party is discovering that its patronage culture is disqualifying most of those best placed to lead it as Ramaphosa struggles to shape the unfolding contest

Cyril Ramaphosa has spent much of his presidency surviving political crises without ever fully restoring his authority. The Phala Phala scandal did not remove him from office, as some inside the African National Congress (ANC) hoped it might, but it permanently damaged the image on which his leadership depended: that of a reformist president somehow insulated from the ANC’s culture of secrecy, patronage and elite entitlement.


Tinubu’s machine storms the primaries

NIGERIA'S 2027 PRIMARIES: The battlegrounds that could upset Tinubu's blueprint. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
NIGERIA'S 2027 PRIMARIES: The battlegrounds that could upset Tinubu's blueprint. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The President holds all the cards – money, incumbency and a weakened opposition – but volatile states could complicate voting next January

With nearly 10.9 million votes at the All Progressives Congress (APC) primary, President Bola Tinubu is confident of a resounding victory at the January 2027 polls. He will...


Mnangagwa land payoffs abroad trigger anger at home

Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: zanupf.org.zw
Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: zanupf.org.zw

Compensation for farmers has become central to Harare’s push for debt relief and renewed multilateral financing

When Agriculture Minister Anxious Masuka told parliament on 6 May that the state would return 67 farms seized under the Fast-Track Land Reform Programme (FTLRP) and pay out...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

Raising capital was the main priority for the African Development Bank, said President Sidi Ould Tah when he took office last September, and he is using his first annual meeting in Brazzaville this week to try to rebuild the continent’s financing architecture and mobilise capital. The bank’s capital base grew from US$93 billion in 2015 to $318bn in 2025 under Ould Tah’s predecessor Akinwumi Adesina, yet Africa still faces a $400bn annual development-financing gap despite holdin...

Raising capital was the main priority for the African Development Bank, said President Sidi Ould Tah when he took office last September, and he is using his first annual meeting in Brazzaville this week to try to rebuild the continent’s financing architecture and mobilise capital. The bank’s capital base grew from US$93 billion in 2015 to $318bn in 2025 under Ould Tah’s predecessor Akinwumi Adesina, yet Africa still faces a $400bn annual development-financing gap despite holding an estimated $4 trillion in medium- and long-term savings.

Getting pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and other investment vehicles to channel their money into infrastructure was the EU’s answer in 2014 as it sought to finance public works after the eurozone debt crisis pushed most of the bloc into austerity budgets. With donor countries having cut official development assistance by 30% in two years – with more cuts expected by 2030 – Ould Tah now wants to pursue a similar strategy as part of a New African Financial Architecture for Development.

Few doubt that the cash exists. The bank’s latest African Economic Outlook estimates that the continent has about $1.43trn a year in domestic resources and would need to tap only a fraction of this to bridge Africa’s financing gap. But persuading the private sector to plug the gap left by governments will require major incentives and a level of cohesion that has so far been lacking.

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Africa is still getting a raw deal

International rivalries are proving more of a drag than a catalyst to boosting metals and minerals processing on the continent

In the modern industrial sector, Africa has barely moved beyond its traditional role in the global economic system as an exporter of raw commodities rather than purveyor of...


Farmers accuse Ouattara of breaking price pledge

Cocoa is stacking up but the farmers are owed billions – as a new report says about half the crop won’t meet the EU deforestation deadline

On 15 May Yves Brahima Koné, director of the Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC), raised estimates for Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa production to 2.2 million metric tons for 2025-26, almost...


Africa’s minerals drive a global scramble

Rival powers are accelerating stockpiling, price floor schemes and bilateral deals as they compete for the continent’s strategic resources

For the world’s most powerful states, the centrality of securing critical minerals – particularly for military and clean energy technology – has been underscored since the United States-Israeli...


Washington hits Salva Kiir’s revenue machine

State Department accuses tax collection company Crawford Capital and its political allies of siphoning state funds

Washington’s labelling of Crawford Capital, which manages most of South Sudan’s non-oil revenues, as a ‘corrupt entity’ lands close to President Salva Kiir Mayardit’s office and his family....


Ruto squeezes the budget before the vote

Fuel price hikes and a tougher tax regime are testing how far the government can push voters before anger spills back onto the streets

President William Ruto has told allies he expects to win the 2027 general election ‘with a two to three million vote margin,’ confident that his record of international...



Pointers

From Colombia to Khartoum

Colombian private military contractors transited through United Arab Emirates military bases before being deployed to Sudan to support the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Human Rights Watch (HRW) said...


Much more than optics

A conference in Accra on 17-19 June by Ghana’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs plans to map out the next steps in the pan-Africanist push for reparations for the...