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Vol 57 No 1

Published 8th January 2016


Somalia

Division all around

Special interests hamper the federal project, while a split in Al Shabaab threatens devastating consequences for Kenya

This was supposed to be the year Somalia moved to a national electoral register and elected a president. Instead, the scene is set for rising tension among the 'regional entities' and between them and central government. This makes elections by direct suffrage impossible this year. The new president is likely to be chosen via grubby compromises and extensive horse-trading, well lubricated with cash. Meanwhile, the struggle in Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen between supporters of Al Qaida and Da'ish ('Islamic State', IS) is likely to deepen. That could have devastating consequences for Kenya.

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