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Vol 65 No 10

Published 9th May 2024

South Africa

Pollsters vie for credibility with politicians

Opinion surveys struggle to keep up with the changing shape of this intensely contested election

Activists and politicians across the spectrum agree on one point: opinion surveys in South Africa are often wide of the mark, undermined by poor methodology, and sometimes institutional bias. That said there is a broad consensus among the top four opinion surveys: the country is heading for a coalition government after the 29 May elections. Only a slim minority of analysts, along with officials of the ruling party, insist the African National Congress (ANC) will win a narrow majority, obviating the need to cut a deal after the vote.

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