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Vol 53 No 1

Published 6th January 2012


Somalia

The war goes regional

Intervention by Kenya and Ethiopia will drive Al Shabaab from its strongholds but won’t produce a viable government

Military successes by African forces against the Islamist militia Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen have changed the dynamics of the conflict. However, they are far from tackling the core problem: the lack of an effective government to preside over national reconstruction. Hopes of progress towards that in 2012 look overblown, despite the growing roster of countries intervening militarily or diplomatically. Indeed, many now favour a more regional or confederal approach, arguing for the recognition of local political realities and of self-governing provincial entities.

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