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The Africa Confidential Blog
What is Africa’s plan as global power shifts eastwards?
Africa Confidential
The reshaping of the international system – reflecting a shift of global power eastwards and the west’s reaction to it – will intensify in 2026, adding to the pressure on African states. The growing economic influence and military power of the Gulf States, especially Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, will accelerate. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi back opposing sides in Sudan’s civil war and in the battle for power in Libya. It is also clear that Saudi will side with Egypt and Somalia behind Eritrea in any clash with Ethiopia, which will rely on backing from the UAE.
China, whose foreign minister Wang Yi is calling in on Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania and Lesotho on his customary new year tour, may try to dampen down tensions in the Horn of Africa. Wang is also on a wider charm offensive in Africa, launching a new people-to-people programme as a means of promoting China’s soft power. The reach of China’s media, the growing number of African students in Chinese universities and US$300 billion of Sino-African trade point to some success.
The western response, whether from the United States or Europe, suggests very specific and narrow interests in the continent, and at worst indifference. The western obsession with migration has complicated diplomacy, trade and education. Even the west’s interest in critical minerals has triggered only a limited response in Africa because of China’s dominant position in the sector.
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